A Washington Post article about why we should make the effort -- clearly ghost-written by Tony.
Total Solar Eclipse, Apr. 8, 2024
- Thread starter jamesdeluxe
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Hopefully James will be enough recuperated in a month to travel by car to upstate NY.
I'd do this:
nypost.com
Eclipse express: $4K gets you a seat, gourmet meals on NYC-Niagara Falls train to view the full solar event
Two vintage trains will head from New York City — where the eclipse on April 8 will only be a partial 90% event — to Niagara Falls, where the full eclipse can be viewed.
nypost.com
You will have totality for a few seconds (more if a little farther into totality), but it's not that predictable based upon lunar limb profile. If there is a deep lunar valley the southern limit line might be farther north than a crude calculation would indicate.
I posted a detail map of NY/VT on NYSkiBlog with much advice back in November.
I can say only in the strongest terms, "Do not be tempted to view from your place which may be a few seconds or no totality if the lunar limb profile is wrong." If the forecast is favorable, you can drive to Tupper, Whiteface or Titus. But be prepared for 50+% odds of a poor forecast 2-3 days ahead. In that case you may have to drive considerably farther, south shore Lake Ontario being closest spot with more favorable climatology. But you never know; it could be Vermont.
Mobility will likely be the key to success in the Northeast. It's a bad idea to pay exorbitant hotel prices in a totality zone which is more likely than not to be clouded out. Stay somewhere outside the zone with good Interstate connections like Albany. Then use the forecasts and drive (leaving VERY early in the morning) to wherever is forecasted clearest.
A follow-up question for Harvey: Is Gore still planning an organized event despite being OUTSIDE totality? I advised you back in November to get them to nix that potentially embarrassing idea.
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I was wondering how accurate the projection of totality is and what it looks like if you are just inside of it.
Seems like Gore is still planning on it.
I wouldn't pay for a hotel room. If Whiteface is open I might ski there. (Titus is closed). I also have no problem traveling to our place. I'm there often, and we have a construction project going on there, so being there is a good thing, for me.
Seems like Gore is still planning on it.
I wouldn't pay for a hotel room. If Whiteface is open I might ski there. (Titus is closed). I also have no problem traveling to our place. I'm there often, and we have a construction project going on there, so being there is a good thing, for me.
I suspect that anyone who's aware of the points in the Washington Post article and cares that it's not totality (eclipse geeks like you) will go elsewhere to view it.
That's exactly my point. Most people don't know those details. Specifically:
People who think a 99% eclipse will get you 99% of the experience will be susceptible to Gore's promotion.
Despite my exhaustive post on Harvey's forum in November he's asking yesterday if he can view from his place which even if in totality is marginal. If Gore promotes the event, many people will show up and be extremely pissed afterwards when they hear from other people who drove even 20 miles north.
The one part of this that skiers SHOULD understand is the weather. If they know that clouds drastically diminish the experience they will understand as skiers attuned to Northeast weather the importance of mobility.
EMSC
Well-known member
Or in layman's terms; for the human experience there is no such thing as a 99% eclipse. You either are very definitively in totality, or you get essentially none of the experience. Even in Totality zones the final minute or two before the eclipse the sunlight is 'off'/strange-ish but WAY too bright still, right up until the actual totality occurs. It's pretty sudden and very cool to experience.
You should plan to drive somewhere for the full experience if at all possible. It's worth it IMO.
You should plan to drive somewhere for the full experience if at all possible. It's worth it IMO.
berkshireskier
Member
I hadn't really given much thought to travelling to see the total eclipse but now that we're getting closer, I'm thinking I may drive up to northern NY state. I can be in Plattsburgh, NY (right in the middle of the path of totality, with an estimate total eclipse of about 3;30 minutes) in about 3 to 3.5 hours, IF no traffic issues on the Northway - I87. Of course, my decision would be weather dependent. I would do it only if it looks to be a clear or mostly clear day (based on the weather forecast a day or two prior to the event). At this time of year, I would estimate that that there is no more than a 20 or 25% chance of clear day in the middle of April in upstate New York. I also worry about the traffic situation. People are already warning that there will be huge numbers of people heading north for the total eclipse and I don't want to get stuck in a traffic jam on the Northway, either going or coming back.
My daughter, who is a PhD candidate in astrophysics at McGill in Montreal, tells me that they are planning for a huge celebration to watch the eclipse. They have ordered 20,000 "eclipse glasses" to hand out. Although the western (or northern) edge of the zone of totality bisects the city of Montreal, so they will barely be in the totality zone and it will probably last only a minute or so that far from the center.
My daughter, who is a PhD candidate in astrophysics at McGill in Montreal, tells me that they are planning for a huge celebration to watch the eclipse. They have ordered 20,000 "eclipse glasses" to hand out. Although the western (or northern) edge of the zone of totality bisects the city of Montreal, so they will barely be in the totality zone and it will probably last only a minute or so that far from the center.
I didn't think it was quite that bad, but it's close.
You will be fine if you get up and start driving by dawn, assuming you have a favorable weather forecast for somewhere within easy driving range. The bad traffic in 2017 was mostly after the eclipse when everyone tries to leave at the same time. If you can find somewhere to hang out until late evening or get a hotel room (outside the path so not price gouged), you'll avoid the worst of it.
I looked it up on Xavier Jubier's interactive Google Map. Surprisingly McGill is in totality one minute 12 seconds. But the weather chart above is far more relevant. Surely there are some meteorologists at McGill who will tell you with those climate stats that you should have a car, be ready to get off that island by dawn or over the weekend before and drive somewhere there is a favorable forecast.
The same applies to berkshireskier. The next total eclipse crossing much of the US is in 2045. The time, effort and $$$ for northeasterners to chase this one by car with a couple of days notice (the prior two days are on a weekend!) is trivial. By climate stats the most favorable location in the Northeast is the south shore of Lake Ontario, but only by about 10% better odds of lower cloud cover. The weather forecasts could send you farther west or even the other direction into northern New England.
Please take the time to read the climate and weather analysis of Jay Anderson, in particular the New York and New England sections and Eclipse Day Planning. You are in a first world country with an excellent highway system and numerous weather models that we skiers know work well when they are in agreement 2-3 days out for a particular date and location. Please don't let inertia keep you at home or committed to a fixed location (your daughter) when a little extra effort can give you a once-in-a-lifetime experience.
How accurate are totality-duration predictions?
EMSC
Well-known member
Simple stuff for astrophysics math. They are basically spot on.
Very, if you use lunar limb corrections as Xavier does. The lunar limb corrections subtract 10 seconds from McGill's length of totality as it's so close to the edge. Near centerline the difference is typically 1-2 seconds. If you click on a location on Xavier's map, the eclipse circumstances are displayed including length of totality with and without lunar limb correction.
berkshireskier
Member
Thanks, Tony, for all that information! Yea, my estimate of, maybe a 20 to 25% chance of a clear or mostly clear day in upstate NY in early April was purely a guess based on my anecdotal experience of living in the Northeast most of my life. At this time of year, we seem to get a lot of "unsettled" and variable weather - cloudy, rainy (or snowing), windy, etc. I would definitely watch the weather forecast for, at least, a few days before the eclipse before making any decision about whether to drive 3.5 hours or so to the path of totality. One of the issues, though, is that although weather forecasts 24 or 48 hours in advance can be quite accurate and reliable in terms of a major rain or snow storm, I don't think they are nearly as accurate in terms of predicting cloud cover at a particular location at a particular time of the day. In the Northeast, it might be mostly clear at 11:00 AM and then completely cloudy at 3:30 PM and then maybe clear again at 5:00 PM. So, I think it is somewhat of a crapshoot to know if you might have a clear slot at the exact time of totality.
I understand what you're saying about being flexible about where to view the eclipse, based on weather forecasts for the highest likelihood of clear skies but I'm NOT driving 5 or 6 or 7 hours to try to get the best view. Plus, I would guess that, when you look at the path of totality across the northeast, the weather is not going to vary tremendously and it would be almost impossible to predict exactly where the best viewing location would be a head of time.
I am somewhat concerned about traffic issues. I would leave early to get up to where I want to go in plenty of time and I'd probably try to select a location close to the highway to get back on for the drive home as soon as the eclipse was over.
I understand what you're saying about being flexible about where to view the eclipse, based on weather forecasts for the highest likelihood of clear skies but I'm NOT driving 5 or 6 or 7 hours to try to get the best view. Plus, I would guess that, when you look at the path of totality across the northeast, the weather is not going to vary tremendously and it would be almost impossible to predict exactly where the best viewing location would be a head of time.
I am somewhat concerned about traffic issues. I would leave early to get up to where I want to go in plenty of time and I'd probably try to select a location close to the highway to get back on for the drive home as soon as the eclipse was over.
It is worse than predicting snowfall for skiing. I find that wind and cloud cover pose the biggest challenges for meteorologists.
Very clear weather I find is often well predicted. I hope there is such a forecast somewhere in the Northeast. If so it would be worth the 6-7 hour drive. If it’s all unsettled then you take your chances with the least bad within a shorter distance.
Very clear weather I find is often well predicted. I hope there is such a forecast somewhere in the Northeast. If so it would be worth the 6-7 hour drive. If it’s all unsettled then you take your chances with the least bad within a shorter distance.
I sense eclipse fatigue setting in: NYT article.
I’m going hazard a guess that Houlton Maine will not be overrun given its remoteness and bad weather prospects. Consider that James or Liz have never made it as far as Sugarloaf.