Vail: Epic Pass Sales and Strategy

I want to bet on Prediction Markets how quickly Celeste Burgoyne, Vail's Chief Revenue Officer, gets fired. I don't think Vail is going to grow organically by providing service, like shopping at an obscenely priced Lulemon or Vuori store.


A renewed focus on service
Burgoyne, who Vail Resorts hired from the clothing brand Lululemon in November, said that the company will now lean into its service offering as a primary strategy for growth.



Sounds like a poor career move... I do not know how she will increase revenue with falling skier days & pass sales negatively impacting ski school, food & beverage, and accommodations.

Seems like someone hired to take the fall for Katz. Fortunate hire before this ski season.
 
ski school, food & beverage, and accommodations.
Are all obscenely priced at the Vail destination resorts. No idea how you push on those at all. I could see some additional uptake on things like their retail and ski rental/delivery services, but even that will most likely be among the top tier of wealthy skiers component not the broad based average skier with an epic pass.
 
I am VERY interested in watching Season Pass sales for both Vail and Alterra after the worst West Coast ski season in a generation. It's been 40-50 years since Mother Nature taught skiers that a pass is naught, always a deal, even with geographically diverse ski options. Assume a decent number will not renew - or wait.

Essentially, if Vail cannot book pass revenue up front, the model breaks. Especially since Vail trained analysts to watch that number versus any individual ski resort or region. Interested to see if Vail will be forced to discount and/or prolong deadlines.

This is what I am watching:

Regarding spring season North American pass sales results, Katz noted, "Spring pass sales for the 2026/2027 season are underway, and through the April 12th deadline, we have a seen a moderate decline in pass product units and a slight decline in sales dollars. It is early in the selling period, with our first pricing deadline in May, and we will provide a more comprehensive update on pass sales trends when we report third quarter results in June 2026."

Also, waiting for a response on not being able to use my Epic Pass at Telluride over the holidays. I don't really care, but just curious to see how Vail handles its partner mountains.





Apr 23, 2026

Vail Resorts Reports Certain Ski Season Metrics for the Season-to-Date Period Ended April 19, 2026​

BROOMFIELD, Colo., April 23, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Vail Resorts, Inc. (NYSE: MTN) today reported certain ski season metrics from the beginning of the ski season through April 19, 2026 compared to the same prior year period through April 20, 2025. The reported ski season metrics are for the Company's North American destination mountain resorts and regional ski areas, excluding the results of the Australian and European resorts and ski areas. The data mentioned in this release is interim period data and is subject to fiscal quarter end review and adjustments.

  • Season-to-date total skier visits were down 14.9% compared to the prior year period.
  • Season-to-date total lift revenue, including an allocated portion of season pass revenue for each applicable period, was down 5.6% compared to the prior year period.
  • Season-to-date ski school revenue was down 12.0% and dining revenue was down 11.7% compared to the prior year period. Retail/rental revenue for North American resort and ski area store locations was down 6.6% compared to the prior year period.
Commenting on the season-to-date metrics, Rob Katz, Chief Executive Officer said, "The winter of 2025/2026 has been one of the most challenging winters in history across the western U.S., with record low snowfall and historically warm temperatures negatively impacting visitation and spending throughout the season. March conditions saw a continuation of low snowfall and warmer temperatures well outside of historical norms, leading to weaker late-season visitation and earlier than planned closures for many resorts across the western U.S. As we previously highlighted heading into March, these dynamics increased variability and resulted in visitation declines for both destination and local guests with the largest impact in the Rockies, where visitation declined 25%. As a result of these persistently challenging conditions, we now expect Resort Reported EBITDA for fiscal 2026 to be at or around the low end of the guidance range issued on March 9, 2026."

Regarding spring season North American pass sales results, Katz noted, "Spring pass sales for the 2026/2027 season are underway, and through the April 12th deadline, we have a seen a moderate decline in pass product units and a slight decline in sales dollars. It is early in the selling period, with our first pricing deadline in May, and we will provide a more comprehensive update on pass sales trends when we report third quarter results in June 2026."

Basis of Presentation

The reported ski season metrics include growth for season pass revenue based on estimated fiscal 2026 North American season pass revenue compared to fiscal 2025 North American season pass revenue. The metrics include all North American destination mountain resorts and regional ski areas and are adjusted to eliminate the impact of foreign currency by applying current period exchange rates to the prior period for Whistler Blackcomb's results.
I don’t think people will hold off buying passes for next year. Most folks will be of the opinion that it’s highly unlikely to have two shocker seasons in a row.
 
I'm hearing that both IKon and Epic sales are down and that short sighted people are upset about how poor the snow was this season across much of the US. Also, the fairly big increase in Ikon pass price didn't sit well with folks.
 
Also, the fairly big increase in Ikon pass price didn't sit well with folks.
An interesting point.

Here's the history of the Mammoth MVP pre-Ikon:
2000-2001
375
2001-2002
399
2002-2003
399
2003-2004
399
2004-2005
425
2005-2006
450
2006-2007
485
2007-2008
549
2008-2009
576
2009-2010
556
2010-2011
639
2011-2012
659
2012-2013
609
2013-2014
679
2014-2015
689
2015-2016
689
2016-2017
699
2017-2018
699

Notice that price increases were interrupted after the bad 2012, 2014 and 2015 seasons. Furthermore early renewals in spring 2014 and 2015 were sweetened with $100 in mountain credits. Ikon is offering $25 per month mountain credits (good at Alterra-owned areas only) in lieu of the $50 renewal discount this year, but the renewal discount was formerly $100. So yes, I agree with Jimk that a business as usual price increase was not a great idea coming out of this season.
 
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I don’t think people will hold off buying passes for next year. Most folks will be of the opinion that it’s highly unlikely to have two shocker seasons in a row.
Past history says there will be some effect. Advance bookings definitely slow down after out of a bad season and increase after a good one. An Epic or Ikon is not exactly the same as an advance booking to a specific resort, but the Vail April 12 announcement supports my view.
 
I did enjoy Stuart's write-up, especially this one chart:


1777213083414.png


Specifically, this: all of Vail's acquisitions could not mitigate a poor season. Again, Vail never developed a decent European footprint (the largest global ski market) and is basically a West Coast American ski operator.

1777213484375.png






How bad was Vail Resorts’ 2025-26 winter?
Well, the company yesterday shared an initial estimate of approximately 14.4 million skier visits across its 37 North American resorts this season.
To put that number in context, 14.4 million skier visits is:
A 14.9 percent drop from Vail’s 2024-25 skier visits
The lowest number of skier visits (excluding 2019-20), to Vail’s North American ski areas since the 2017-18 ski season, during which Vail owned just 13 North American ski areas
Just 6.7 percent higher than the 13.5 million total skier visits Vail recorded for the Covid-shortened 2019-20 winter, which ended March 14
Four percent below the 15 million skier visits that Vail recorded for the 2018-19 winter, during which the company operated just 17 North American ski resorts
This 14.9 percent drop is even more severe than the 11.9 percent year-over-year skier-visit decline that Vail reported year-to-date on March 9. Vail is blaming the western visitation crash on “record low snowfall and historically bad temperatures.”
Still, it could’ve been a lot worse. Vail’s Rocky Mountain visits declined 25 percent, and a strong overall winter east of the Mississippi surely buoyed Vail’s overall numbers.


Need to wait for an update on this report


Last Year: The International Report on Snow & Mountain Tourism finds the 2024/25 season was the busiest on record, with 399 million skier visits across the world.

 
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The Vanat report being released this month will be analyzing the 2024-25 ski season. We will have to wait another year for 2025-26 numbers.

Preliminary Kottke/NSAA comes out mid-May. Details are not publicly released; you have to depend on cursory third party summaries.
 
Not sure if this has been mentioned yet. Not only do they charge customers obscene amounts for lessons while paying instructors a very small percentage of what customers pay, they don't always pay instructors for all the time they are working. My nephew who instructed at Heavenly 2024-25 says they did pay him for training.

Nearly 2,000 ski instructors have joined lawsuit against Vail Resorts so far; opt-in deadline was Wednesday, April 15 https://www.vaildaily.com/news/vail-resorts-lawsuit-2000-ski-instructors-joined/

 
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