Vermont Snow Updates 2008-09

The guys at Eastern have been tossing this one around for almost a week now, but it appears as though this next storm has gained enough credibility for the Burlington NWS to make a special alert on their homepage, so I figured I'd give folks the heads up. This event looks like it could be more substantial than the other couple of events we've had this month, and may get the valleys involved. I'm sure Powderfreak will be coming out with his thoughts at some point, and I'll pass them along if he doesn't have time to post here. For now I've just pasted in some alert and discussion from the BTV NWS below, but with the way they are talking it could be something to plan for in terms of earned turns, or even travel depending on how substantial the valley impacts are going to be:

000
FLUS41 KBTV 270850
HWOBTV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
450 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2008

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-280900-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-
WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-
EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-
450 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL
VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE NORTHWARD AND BE OVER CAPE COD TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO MAINE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
INTO QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY...
BUT WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REACH VALLEY LOCATIONS
EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
A SIGNIFICANT EARLY SEASON SNOWFALL TO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW
YORK LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER
OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS
OVER VALLEY LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO PROVIDE SNOWFALL REPORTS
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON.

$$

WGH


000
FXUS61 KBTV 270853
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
453 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE EAST COAST
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT MONDAY...INCR CLD COVER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA TDY
AS -RW ACTIVITY WORKS INTO THE CWA AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH. AS TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE EVENING HRS...CD
AIR OVERNGT WILL ALLOW SOME BRIEF MIX TO -SW...ESPECIALLY OVER HIR
TRRN. 850 0C TEMP LINE DOES WORK INTO THE CVLY OVERNGT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SETUP OF SIGNIFICANT WX FOR TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 453 AM EDT MONDAY...MDLS STILL IN AGREEMENT FOR TROUGH TO
DIG DEEP ALONG THE EAST COAST. DIFF HAVE SHOWN UP SINCE LAST NGT
RUNS IN THAT SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG BASE OF TROUGH NEAR
DELMARVA...AND LIFT N ON TUESDAY. CURRENT PATH NOW HAS SYSTEM
PUSHING INTO NEW ENG TUES/TUES NGT...AND EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH OF
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS TRACK WILL SETUP UP POTENTIAL SIG WINTER
WX EVENT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA BY LATE AFTNOON TUESDAY ON INTO WED.
SLIGHT MDL TRACK DIFF WILL MEAN BIG DIFF FOR HEAVY BANDS SNOWS THAT
MAY DEVELOP FROM THE DACKS ALL THE WAY TO NC NE VT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DRAW IN HIGH QOF FROM ATLANTIC MOISTURE FEED...THUS ADDING TO
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWS. LOOKING FOR PRECIP TO START AS -RW FROM
CVLY EAST AND MIX TO THE WEST DUE TO SETUP OF 850 TEMP LINE OVER
THE CVLY. THIS ALLOWS FOR TRANSITION OF -RW TO ALL SW BY EVENING
HRS FROM HE HIR ELEV DOWN TO VALLEY FLOORS. BUFKIT PROFILES
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR IT TO COME DOWN HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNGT TUES
INTO EARLY WED MORN. BY WED...SYSTEM IS N OF THE CWA PUTTING CWA
UNDER NW FLOW FOR CONTINUANCE OF -SW...ESPECIALLY IN N VT.
EXPECTING BULK OF SNOWFALL TO ACCUM FIRST IN N NY THEN SHIFT TO NC
NE VT BY WED MORN AS NW UPSLOPE WINDS KICK IN FOR ALL OF WED.
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL IS HIGH...ESEPCIALLY IN HIR ELEV. BECAUSE OF
DIFF TRACK OF SYSTEM WILL LET NEXT SHIFT SEE NEXT RUN TO FINETUNE
NUMBERS FOR UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM.

ANOTHER CONCERN FOR THIS UPCOMING STORM IS THAT MANY TREES ACROSS
THE REGION MAY STILL HAVE LEAVES UPON THEM. IF HEAVY SNOW DOES
OCCUR OVER THE REGION...THESE LEAVES ON TREES MAY ALLOW SNOW TO
COLLECT AND POTENTIALLY DUE DAMAGE TO TREES/LIMBS.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT MONDAY...REMNANTS OF UPPER TROUGH CONTINUE TO
PUSH AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THURSDAY AFTNOON. W/ NW FLOW STILL
PREVALENT OVER THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT NE VT WED NGT
INTO THURSDAY MIDDAY W/ LINGERING -SW...TAPERING OFF INTO THE
DACKS. SFC RIDGE FINALLY BUILDS OVER REGION FOR REST OF THURSDAY
ON INTO FRI MORNING. RIDGE WILL SLIDE S OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY
ALLOWING WAA TO WORK INTO THE AREA ON WSW WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW
HIGH TEMPS TO GO ABV NORMAL AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IN
TURN SLIDES DOWN ONTO THE CWA AS A BACKDOOR CD FRNT. EXPECTING -RW
AT THE ONSET LATE FRIDAY...AND THEN OVERNGT INTO SAT MORN AS TEMPS
FALL...A CHANGE TO MORE OF RW/SW MIX. N FLOW/CAA BEHIND FRNT WILL
KEEP CLD COVER AND CHANCE FOR --RW/--SW FOR MUCH OF CWA...BFR NEXT
RIDGE BUILDS EAST OUT OF GREAT LKS REGION INTO SUNDAY/MONDAY.
 
Definitely something "potentially" big is in the cards for Jay & Sutton. I'll be going a day trip on Tuesday evening to the Canadiens game in Bell Centre with Morgane, so there is no one I can participate in this fun on Wednesday.
 
I looked outside at around 7:50 P.M. and snow had started here in Waterbury. Small flakes in the 1-2 mm range at first but rapidly growing larger with 5-10 mm flakes mixing in now. The temperature had dropped pretty quickly over the previous couple of hours from the mid 40s F down to 35.4 F. There are already slushy crystals building up on the snowboard so I should have an accumulation to report tomorrow morning.

J.Spin
 
Wednesday, October 29th, 2008: 6:00 A.M. update from Waterbury, VT

New Snow: 0.5 inches
Temperature: 34.9 F
Humidity: 78%
Wind: Calm
Sky: Flurries
Cumulative storm snow total: 0.5 inches
Current snow at the stake: Trace
Season snowfall total: 0.5 inches

I first saw snowfall at the house (495') yesterday at around 7:50 P.M.; the rain had changed over and the air temperature was 35.4 F. It snowed lightly until I went to bed, and this morning there was a half inch on the snowboard with the grass covered with an uneven coating of white. There were still flurries in the air with a temperature of 34.9 F, and the lowest value recorded by the thermometer since yesterday evening was 34.7 F. As I traveled through the Richmond area this morning they appeared to have a more substantial coating of snow than we had in Waterbury, however here in Burlington there is no snow on the ground.

J.Spin
 
I got to think Mt Manny got something out of this. Heck it snowed 3" here in MASH.
 
Harvey44":1diq0iu5 said:
I got to think Mt Manny got something out of this. Heck it snowed 3" here in MASH.
Yes, Matt Bruhns indicated 8-10 inches of accumulation at the base of the Gondola waterfall in his report to SkiVT-L early this morning. That's at an elevation of ~3,200', so there could be more up above that depending on how the snow level dropped through the storm, or perhaps snow collected well over there. We should get an idea of the snow at the stake this afternoon. There will be some settling by then of course, but from my window here it does look like there is some upslope snowfall in effect as well, so that may get added. The Stowe website indicates accumulations of 3-5", but I'm not sure where they took the measurement. With my view from Sugarbush to north of Mansfield it looks like the upslope is really hitting harder from Mansfield northward. South of Mansfield the clouds are sitting at around 3,000' on the mountains, but there's just not that "white wall" appearance there, so I doubt the snowfall could be very prodigious at least right now. I got an email from Bolton Valley today indicating 6 inches of new snow up at their summit (3,150'). I was surprised to see that Jay Peak is indicating only 5 inches as of 10:00 A.M., but again I'm not sure if that's a base or summit measurement. I'll try to compile some updates throughout the day as more information comes in.

-J
 
Sure can't beat that data.

J - can you post the link to great snowfall maps you had? I'd like to find the same data for KALB.

M
 
Harvey44":v7a0stu4 said:
Sure can't beat that data.

J - can you post the link to great snowfall maps you had? I'd like to find the same data for KALB.

M

Those maps are available in a somewhat transient way on the Burlington National Weather service site. If there is a storm in progress, they often have a red highlight bar (it currently says "WINTER WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY") at the top of their main home page:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/btv/

If you click on that it shows the storm total snow forecast maps (where you can click for more detailed maps), and includes descriptive text about the storm below. The text in the highlight bar seems to change pretty frequently as they update things, and the maps change as well. Last year I think BTV was testing out these maps, and they seem more official this year. I'm not sure if all NWS offices use them yet, but check around and see.

-J
 
How does Hunter come in with just over a foot, and Windham , which is around 3miles away as the crow flies. Comes in with 27... :bs:
 
Agree that it's somewhat questionable, but 1) drifting? there were some major winds up high; and 2) Maybe some weird upsloping? Upslope was a major factor in this event, and the way that Windham sits on the Catskills' northernmost ridge, with nothing but the Capital District lowlands to the north would have made it a prime beneficiary of the northerly flow as the low tracked up the Connecticut River Valley.
 
That is odd, but it seems like Hunter is in a snow vacuum. When I skied at Windham in March 2007, it had reported 13 inches of snow the day before, while Hunter only got six. Although there was nothing but crud left on the trails, the woods definitely had a foot plus.

I remember some article about one of the Slutskys saying that he'd rather blow snow than deal with natural snowfall. I find it hard to believe that it costs less to blow snow on the entire mountain than plow parking lots.
](*,)
 
jamesdeluxe":pwys5rpn said:
I remember some article about one of the Slutskys saying that he'd rather blow snow than deal with natural snowfall. I find it hard to believe that it costs less to blow snow on the entire mountain than plow parking lots.
](*,)

Izzy made that quote often. His theory, though, had nothing to do with plowing the parking lots -- after all, he and Orville came from the highway building business (just look at some of those trails if you need proof!) and they had plenty of heavy equipment to suit that purpose. Rather, Izzy felt that a large natural snowfall kept much of his potential clientele base stuck at home in NYC.
 
jasoncapecod":se0v7scx said:
How does Hunter come in with just over a foot, and Windham , which is around 3miles away as the crow flies. Comes in with 27... :bs:

Hunters Base is slightly lower and this storm was very elevation dependent. Once off the valley floor there was easily 20+.
 
Here are some of the latest snowfall updates I've seen from the area:

Jay Peak: 8” (5:30 P.M.)
Stowe: 7” (9:37 A.M.)
Mt. Mansfield Stake: 12” (5:47 P.M., ~3,700’)
Bolton Valley: 6” (9:40 A.M., 3,150’)
Mad River Glen: 3” (8:00 A.M.)
Sugarbush: 6” (8:48 A.M.)
Killington: 10” (Peak)
Okemo: 3” (9:28 A.M.)

It's pretty impressive to see that there's still a foot of snow at the stake even after some settling, although they may have gotten some additional snow through the day due to upslope. For those that would like to get some Mansfield visuals, Joshua Auerbach had some pictures from Mt. Mansfield along with his SkiVT-L trip report from today. There was a lot of talk about the Adirondacks getting hammered with this storm, and if the snow stuck around, we were thinking of heading across the lake to Whiteface with the boys for some turns. But, the latest news I've heard is that Whiteface received accumulations similar to Mt. Mansfield, so we would probably just stick around locally for skiing.

-J
 
Hunters Base is slightly lower and this storm was very elevation dependent. Once off the valley floor there was easily 20+.

I realize that , but the summits of both mountains are almost the same.
 
A lot of variations in the reporting. Would really like an update from Jay. Gotta wonder if that 8" is base or summit. I would assume base?
 
riverc0il":2o2t6wxx said:
A lot of variations in the reporting. Would really like an update from Jay. Gotta wonder if that 8" is base or summit. I would assume base?
Yeah, it would be nice to know the elevation. The only other data I've seen are from this morning's hydro reports, where the Jay Peak station was at 2 inches. That station is at roughly Jay Peak's base elevation.

000
SXUS51 KBTV 291337
HYDBTV
DAILY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
937 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2008

STATION PRECIP TEMPERATURE PRESENT SNOW
24 HRS MAX MIN CUR WEATHER NEW TOTAL SWE
...VERMONT...
...ADDISON COUNTY...
SOUTH LINCOLN 0.86 39 28 29 CLOUDY 3.0 3

...CALEDONIA COUNTY...
ST JOHNSBURY FAIRBA 0.50 46 32 32 LIGHT SNOW T
SUTTON 0.46 44 27 28 LIGHT SNOW 1.9 2
SUTTON 2NE

...CHITTENDEN COUNTY...
HANKSVILLE 0.34 41 30 30 3.3 3
ESSEX JUNCTION COOP

...ESSEX COUNTY VT...
EAST HAVEN
CANAAN
GALLUP MILLS 47 30 30
ISLAND POND 0.30 46 30 30 LIGHT SNOW T
ISLAND POND AIRPORT 47 30 31

...FRANKLIN COUNTY VT...
ENOSBURG FALLS 2
SAINT ALBANS 0.82 43 32 32 LIGHT SNOW 1.0 1

... GRAND ISLE COUNTY VT...
SOUTH HERO NEPP

...LAMOILLE COUNTY...
SMUGGLERS NOTCH 1.52 30 CLOUDY 5.0
EDEN 1.03 42 26 26 3.0 3
MORRISVILLE 4 SSW 1.11 43 30 30 SNOW SHWRS 1.4 1

...ORANGE COUNTY...
BROOKFIELD 2WSW 0.80 39 26 27 CLOUDY 1.0
CHELSEA 0.62 42 29 29 CLOUDY 1.5 1
CORINTH 0.52 46 30 31 SNOW SHWRS 1.0 1
UNION VILLAGE DAM C 0.64 48 33 36 CLOUDY

...ORLEANS COUNTY...
EAST ALBANY 0.93 37 23 23 2.0 2
JAY PEAK 41 24 25 HEAVY SNOW 2.0 2
NEWPORT 0.50 45 30 30 LIGHT SNOW 1.2 1

...RUTLAND COUNTY...
DANBY FOUR CORNERS
RUTLAND 0.61 42 32 34 CLOUDY 1.0 T

...WASHINGTON COUNTY...
MONTPELIER 2 0.72 48 32 32 CLOUDY
NORTHFIELD 0.84 44 33 33
PLAINFIELD 0.89 47 34 34 1.0 1
WAITSFIELD
WORCESTER 0.96 44 30 30 SNOW SHWRS 1.3 1

...WINDSOR COUNTY...
BETHEL 0.89 45 33 34 T
N HARTLAND RES 0.77 45 32 34 SNOW SHWRS
N SPRINGFIELD RES 0.40 49 37 39 CLOUDY 0.0 0
ROCHESTER 0.85 45 32 33 2.5
WOODSTOCK 0.94 46 33 36
 
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