powderfreak
New member
LAST NIGHT:
Still having a hard time getting ground truth snow reports from above
2,000ft but the 2am radar showed a decent burst of snowfall for a few
hours in the Greens.
This early morning loop shows all rain but even ALB airport observations
indicated they switched over to snow in the Hudson Valley before the
Intellicast Radar changed. Most of the yellows associated with heavier
precip in the area from the Catskills through ALB into southern VT was
bright banding on the radar indicating large, wet snow flakes instead of
very heavy rains.
WEEKEND:
This just about says it all for the weekend...NOAA forecast for 3,300ft on
Mount Mansfield. That's about the elevation of the Nosedive Glades.
Check out Stowe.com's new Snow Report page with the link.
Tonight: A chance of snow showers, mainly after 11pm. Low around 15.
Friday: A slight chance of snow showers. High near 25.
Friday Night: A chance of snow showers. Low around 16.
Saturday: A slight chance of snow showers. High near 23.
Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 12.
Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 27.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 14.
Really think about those temperatures for a second...that's cold. Add
another factor that there's a snowpack in place from SB/MRG northward at
higher elevations and I think we end up lower than those temps. Snow guns
were turned on early this morning at Stowe and an all out assult will take
place on the usual intermediate loop. The cats have packed down the route
with the exisiting snow and now there are man-made piles stacking up on
top of natural snow. I'm sure the same is going on at Jay, Smuggs, and
Sugarbush.
WEEKEND: The above mentioned chance and slight chance of snow showers
from the NWS seems too low to me. 20-40% chance of snow each period might
be correct over a given county zone, but I think snow showers are likely
across the central to northern Green Mounain spine and especially in the
Adirondacks.
5:15pm Radar shows snow showers associated with H5 trough and lake
moisture moving through NNY and NVT.
...but I wouldn't rule out a snow squall anywhere tonight with this energy
at H5 moving through:
Big Lake Effect event about to impact higher terrain around the NYS
Thruway (I90) between Utica and Syracuse over the next several days...some
risidual moisture from that might make it into the NW Catskills and down
the Mohawk Valley into the west slopes of the Berkshires/Bennington
County, VT.
LOOKING AHEAD:
The mild spell keeps looking less and less like a problem with confluent
zone over southern Canada occasionally trying to force cold air south of
the border. It will be a battle ground and if we can escape without much
trouble, you can thank the building of a snowpack in central-eastern
Canada (higher latitutes). However, it looks like the end of the warm-up
will feature a low tracking west of the region before locking in cold air
behind it. The good news is, the duration of mild air is becoming shorter
and shorter as well. Here are some maps from the 12z GFS (6z and 18z GFS
runs are nearly identical to this one, too) that show how we go from mild
on and before Sunday the 12th, to colder/snow by Tuesday the 14th...timing
will change but the trend is for mild weather to end earlier, possibly
giving ski resort crews the Tues-Fri time frame, before a lot of opening
weekends, to get things ready.
Sun 12th:
Mon 13th:
Tues 14th:
The map on the 14th would be a real nice pattern with low pressure in
Texas getting ready to eject NEward.
The 8-10 day means (EURO model on left, GFS on right) show warm anomalies
moving eastward. Actually, it doesn't *show* it but the anomaly next
Monday will be centered over the southern Plains and it will then shift
towards and off the east coast.
REALLY LONG TERM:
Just an interesting side note, as most east coast skiers know, the NAO is
the key indicator for cold vs. warm. In simple terms, negative NAO is
good while a positive NAO is bad. It doesn't always mean snow but I'll
take the cold first then see what happens. Values are measured and base
around 0 being neutral.
Here are the yearly NAO data and the mean curve from 1950 to the present.
Additionally, here is NAO data, mostly from 1900-2000.
The 1900-1930's period was largely warm with some of the worst winters on
record in the NE during the 1930's...'60's and '70's were decent, no?
1980's and 1990's don't need to be explained. Now we are reaching a point
of question: what happens next, do we go into a decade or two of negative
NAO readings or do we bounce off zero/neutral and head back into positive
land?
Food for thought...
-Scott
Still having a hard time getting ground truth snow reports from above
2,000ft but the 2am radar showed a decent burst of snowfall for a few
hours in the Greens.
This early morning loop shows all rain but even ALB airport observations
indicated they switched over to snow in the Hudson Valley before the
Intellicast Radar changed. Most of the yellows associated with heavier
precip in the area from the Catskills through ALB into southern VT was
bright banding on the radar indicating large, wet snow flakes instead of
very heavy rains.
WEEKEND:
This just about says it all for the weekend...NOAA forecast for 3,300ft on
Mount Mansfield. That's about the elevation of the Nosedive Glades.
Check out Stowe.com's new Snow Report page with the link.
Tonight: A chance of snow showers, mainly after 11pm. Low around 15.
Friday: A slight chance of snow showers. High near 25.
Friday Night: A chance of snow showers. Low around 16.
Saturday: A slight chance of snow showers. High near 23.
Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 12.
Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 27.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 14.
Really think about those temperatures for a second...that's cold. Add
another factor that there's a snowpack in place from SB/MRG northward at
higher elevations and I think we end up lower than those temps. Snow guns
were turned on early this morning at Stowe and an all out assult will take
place on the usual intermediate loop. The cats have packed down the route
with the exisiting snow and now there are man-made piles stacking up on
top of natural snow. I'm sure the same is going on at Jay, Smuggs, and
Sugarbush.
WEEKEND: The above mentioned chance and slight chance of snow showers
from the NWS seems too low to me. 20-40% chance of snow each period might
be correct over a given county zone, but I think snow showers are likely
across the central to northern Green Mounain spine and especially in the
Adirondacks.
5:15pm Radar shows snow showers associated with H5 trough and lake
moisture moving through NNY and NVT.
...but I wouldn't rule out a snow squall anywhere tonight with this energy
at H5 moving through:
Big Lake Effect event about to impact higher terrain around the NYS
Thruway (I90) between Utica and Syracuse over the next several days...some
risidual moisture from that might make it into the NW Catskills and down
the Mohawk Valley into the west slopes of the Berkshires/Bennington
County, VT.
LOOKING AHEAD:
The mild spell keeps looking less and less like a problem with confluent
zone over southern Canada occasionally trying to force cold air south of
the border. It will be a battle ground and if we can escape without much
trouble, you can thank the building of a snowpack in central-eastern
Canada (higher latitutes). However, it looks like the end of the warm-up
will feature a low tracking west of the region before locking in cold air
behind it. The good news is, the duration of mild air is becoming shorter
and shorter as well. Here are some maps from the 12z GFS (6z and 18z GFS
runs are nearly identical to this one, too) that show how we go from mild
on and before Sunday the 12th, to colder/snow by Tuesday the 14th...timing
will change but the trend is for mild weather to end earlier, possibly
giving ski resort crews the Tues-Fri time frame, before a lot of opening
weekends, to get things ready.
Sun 12th:
Mon 13th:
Tues 14th:
The map on the 14th would be a real nice pattern with low pressure in
Texas getting ready to eject NEward.
The 8-10 day means (EURO model on left, GFS on right) show warm anomalies
moving eastward. Actually, it doesn't *show* it but the anomaly next
Monday will be centered over the southern Plains and it will then shift
towards and off the east coast.
REALLY LONG TERM:
Just an interesting side note, as most east coast skiers know, the NAO is
the key indicator for cold vs. warm. In simple terms, negative NAO is
good while a positive NAO is bad. It doesn't always mean snow but I'll
take the cold first then see what happens. Values are measured and base
around 0 being neutral.
Here are the yearly NAO data and the mean curve from 1950 to the present.
Additionally, here is NAO data, mostly from 1900-2000.
The 1900-1930's period was largely warm with some of the worst winters on
record in the NE during the 1930's...'60's and '70's were decent, no?
1980's and 1990's don't need to be explained. Now we are reaching a point
of question: what happens next, do we go into a decade or two of negative
NAO readings or do we bounce off zero/neutral and head back into positive
land?
Food for thought...
-Scott
