Weather Thoughts

powderfreak

New member
Its becoming that time of year again when I'll start watching the weather
like a hawk. I've been stockpiling little tidbits of information regarding
this upcoming winter and there are a few points regarding the next two weeks
plus some early season thoughts.

1) Cold shot coming late this week and next weekend will likely bring the
first dusting of snow to the northern Adirondacks, northern Greens, and
Whites. This is huge (if it actually arrives) because you need a cold shot
in October to come and last a few days...if it never comes in October, we're
going to have a hard time getting it during the winter. I don't know if
that makes sense but the cold shot in October is a huge in my mind in
showing us that yes, this can happen and its not a case of consistently
modeled cold shots that fail to arrive. I'll have more details as this as
we get closer but I'm thinking we see a few days of 850mb temps of -2C to
-4C. This would provide the summits with temps in the upper 20's and would
yield a freezing level near 3,000ft with a snow level maybe 500ft lower if
precipitation occurs. To get snow this time of year at 1,000ft and lower we
need 850mb temps of -6 to -9C. High temps will likely be 30's for 2K feet
and higher with 40's for mtn towns and maybe 50's for the CPV. We'd likely
see the first real widespread freeze during this Thurs-Sun period if we can
stay clear throughout one of those nights.

2) Record low levels of snow and ice cover in the arctic region was noted
early this fall. This is not good. We need that snow and ice cover to
generate our low level cold air masses. Of course, it'll snow up there and
the cover will build but our season might be delayed in starting as strong
high pressure systems are generated from early season snow cover in arctic
regions. To get good cold air masses in November and December, we'd like to
have good snow cover up north in September and October to start the
production line of those cold, arctic highs that fuel our winter season.
Will be monitoring this over the next several weeks.

3) Its been warm lately. The Pacific Jet has been active in shutting down
any cold air from making a major intrusion into the U.S. except in the far
west and northwest. The Arctic Oscillation and NAO have turned negative and
this is why this upcoming cold shot should come through. The battle this
winter will be between the NAO and the Pacific jet. Again, this is why this
upcoming cold shot will be interesting to watch. If the cold is shunted
northeast of New England and the core of the cold doesn't drop into the U.S.
even with negative NAO/AO values, we might be in another winter where
elevation and latitude plays a serious role. I'm planning on a weak to
moderate La Nina this winter and latitude often plays a role anyway in these
situations. Whether we are talking good winter for I-90 northward, the
PA/MD border, or I-89 has yet to be seen...but more negative departures
(temps) are usually seen further north and west in La Nina situations.

Just food for thought right now.

-Scott
 

Harvey

Administrator
Staff member
I have nothing to add to that except it's great when Scott starts talkin weather. The preseason has officially begun, in my book.
 

powderfreak

New member
Thanks, Harvy...I had some fun just thinking about Winter Storm posts this afternoon. Can't wait for that first real snowfall.

We should make some turns at Gore this winter, I'm sure I'll be back there at times throughout the winter. Always make the Christmas holiday trek to our friend's cabin in Indian Lake so will definitely be at Gore during that time.

-Scott
 

richedie

New member
I was reading some scary research on global warming.
Obviously for selfish reasons, I want lots of snow. Apparently, we can expect much shorter ski/snowboard seasons in the near future...especially lower elevation regions.
 

Ryan

New member
richedie":1k5rw6c4 said:
I was reading some scary research on global warming.
Obviously for selfish reasons, I want lots of snow. Apparently, we can expect much shorter ski/snowboard seasons in the near future...especially lower elevation regions.

I'm not sure i agree with this one here. I see your in Pennsylvania, I am as well. Here in the North West corner outside of Erie we see some fantastic lake effect snows. Last year we entered the winter with Lake erie 3-4 degrees above normal. Although the first half of January was terrible the now falls for the remainder of the winter and into March were GREAT for anywhere that can pick up a good shot of Lake effect snow. With the current lake Erie surface temps near of above 70 degrees and the weather yet to shift colder I think we may be in for another great ride. That being said I think that if global worming is real. (I'm not touching my thoughts on that one.) It could lead to specific areas seeing increased snowfall.
 

richedie

New member
Believe me, I hope you are correct!!!!!! I want this all to be some bad dream.

I firmly believe that things are getting worse and will get really bad before we see much improvement. However, I hope we can turn things around and it doesn't get as bad as expected. However, I think we are kidding ourselves if we think global warming is a falcity....unfortunately....sniff...sniff.

I was hoping I could some day take my grandkids skiing and snowboarding but I don't know if that will ever happen.

http://www.collegenews.org/x5563.xml
 

Tony Crocker

Administrator
Staff member
I call BS on models like this.

Here's one glaring example:
Utah
84 percent loss: Salt Lake County, location of Alta Ski Area, Snowbird Ski and Summer Resort, and Solitude Mountain Resort
61 percent loss: Summit County, location of Park City Mountain Resort, Deer Valley Resort and The Canyons Resort
The Cottonwoods are higher than Utah's Summit County and get hit first by weather systems. So if global warming raises the rain/snow line and/or weakens storm intensity the Cottonwoods are going to be more affected than the Park City group?

Before you publish the results of your computer models, perhaps you should give them a common sense smell test.

What time of year is snowpack being measured? Usually hydrologists measure in spring because that's what available for water usage downstream. If snowfall decreases by X percent, spring snowpack will decrease by more than X percent. For example the Sierra got half as much snow in 2006-07 as in 2005-06. By May 1 there was no snow on the ground in many areas that were piled high the year before. So the decrease in snowpack for those locations was 100%.

Assuming the warming trend continues, the water storage/reservoir systems in the West will be severely impacted long before the ski resorts.
 
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