powderfreak
New member
Its becoming that time of year again when I'll start watching the weather
like a hawk. I've been stockpiling little tidbits of information regarding
this upcoming winter and there are a few points regarding the next two weeks
plus some early season thoughts.
1) Cold shot coming late this week and next weekend will likely bring the
first dusting of snow to the northern Adirondacks, northern Greens, and
Whites. This is huge (if it actually arrives) because you need a cold shot
in October to come and last a few days...if it never comes in October, we're
going to have a hard time getting it during the winter. I don't know if
that makes sense but the cold shot in October is a huge in my mind in
showing us that yes, this can happen and its not a case of consistently
modeled cold shots that fail to arrive. I'll have more details as this as
we get closer but I'm thinking we see a few days of 850mb temps of -2C to
-4C. This would provide the summits with temps in the upper 20's and would
yield a freezing level near 3,000ft with a snow level maybe 500ft lower if
precipitation occurs. To get snow this time of year at 1,000ft and lower we
need 850mb temps of -6 to -9C. High temps will likely be 30's for 2K feet
and higher with 40's for mtn towns and maybe 50's for the CPV. We'd likely
see the first real widespread freeze during this Thurs-Sun period if we can
stay clear throughout one of those nights.
2) Record low levels of snow and ice cover in the arctic region was noted
early this fall. This is not good. We need that snow and ice cover to
generate our low level cold air masses. Of course, it'll snow up there and
the cover will build but our season might be delayed in starting as strong
high pressure systems are generated from early season snow cover in arctic
regions. To get good cold air masses in November and December, we'd like to
have good snow cover up north in September and October to start the
production line of those cold, arctic highs that fuel our winter season.
Will be monitoring this over the next several weeks.
3) Its been warm lately. The Pacific Jet has been active in shutting down
any cold air from making a major intrusion into the U.S. except in the far
west and northwest. The Arctic Oscillation and NAO have turned negative and
this is why this upcoming cold shot should come through. The battle this
winter will be between the NAO and the Pacific jet. Again, this is why this
upcoming cold shot will be interesting to watch. If the cold is shunted
northeast of New England and the core of the cold doesn't drop into the U.S.
even with negative NAO/AO values, we might be in another winter where
elevation and latitude plays a serious role. I'm planning on a weak to
moderate La Nina this winter and latitude often plays a role anyway in these
situations. Whether we are talking good winter for I-90 northward, the
PA/MD border, or I-89 has yet to be seen...but more negative departures
(temps) are usually seen further north and west in La Nina situations.
Just food for thought right now.
-Scott
like a hawk. I've been stockpiling little tidbits of information regarding
this upcoming winter and there are a few points regarding the next two weeks
plus some early season thoughts.
1) Cold shot coming late this week and next weekend will likely bring the
first dusting of snow to the northern Adirondacks, northern Greens, and
Whites. This is huge (if it actually arrives) because you need a cold shot
in October to come and last a few days...if it never comes in October, we're
going to have a hard time getting it during the winter. I don't know if
that makes sense but the cold shot in October is a huge in my mind in
showing us that yes, this can happen and its not a case of consistently
modeled cold shots that fail to arrive. I'll have more details as this as
we get closer but I'm thinking we see a few days of 850mb temps of -2C to
-4C. This would provide the summits with temps in the upper 20's and would
yield a freezing level near 3,000ft with a snow level maybe 500ft lower if
precipitation occurs. To get snow this time of year at 1,000ft and lower we
need 850mb temps of -6 to -9C. High temps will likely be 30's for 2K feet
and higher with 40's for mtn towns and maybe 50's for the CPV. We'd likely
see the first real widespread freeze during this Thurs-Sun period if we can
stay clear throughout one of those nights.
2) Record low levels of snow and ice cover in the arctic region was noted
early this fall. This is not good. We need that snow and ice cover to
generate our low level cold air masses. Of course, it'll snow up there and
the cover will build but our season might be delayed in starting as strong
high pressure systems are generated from early season snow cover in arctic
regions. To get good cold air masses in November and December, we'd like to
have good snow cover up north in September and October to start the
production line of those cold, arctic highs that fuel our winter season.
Will be monitoring this over the next several weeks.
3) Its been warm lately. The Pacific Jet has been active in shutting down
any cold air from making a major intrusion into the U.S. except in the far
west and northwest. The Arctic Oscillation and NAO have turned negative and
this is why this upcoming cold shot should come through. The battle this
winter will be between the NAO and the Pacific jet. Again, this is why this
upcoming cold shot will be interesting to watch. If the cold is shunted
northeast of New England and the core of the cold doesn't drop into the U.S.
even with negative NAO/AO values, we might be in another winter where
elevation and latitude plays a serious role. I'm planning on a weak to
moderate La Nina this winter and latitude often plays a role anyway in these
situations. Whether we are talking good winter for I-90 northward, the
PA/MD border, or I-89 has yet to be seen...but more negative departures
(temps) are usually seen further north and west in La Nina situations.
Just food for thought right now.
-Scott
