West Coast Conditions 2025/26

[MarzNC]

That wet bulb chart reinforces ChrisC's point. Snowmaking won't even get started at PC/DV until Nov. 24.

Also makes it clear to me and having that level of detail for snowmaking wet bulb is not a feature that makes any difference. I can tell enough by simply looking at the daily temperature forecast after a couple decades of paying attention to snowmaking in the southeast.

Note that since the snowmaking forecast is for mid-mountain, there may be times that a resort has snowguns firing on the upper mountain in order to start building base. Conversely, if there is a temperature inversion then snowmaking may not be possible when people in the valley think it should be happening. That's common at Massanutten.

At the same time, the Free Preview means I appreciate better what I'm seeing in the annotated examples for the wet bulb forecast put into the Mid-Atlantic Daily Snow report. I don't think Evan is going to start paying more attention to early season snowmaking for DV, PC, and LCC/BCC resorts.

 

[EMSC]

I don't recall ever seeing messaging like this from the most reliable early-season ski area on the continent.

Also can't recall seeing delays from Grand Fog-ee, but do recall it from other early season areas like Alta and Steamboat on rare occasions. So I'd say not common at all, but not unprecedented either - so far at least.

 

[ChrisC]

Also can't recall seeing delays from Grand Fog-ee, but do recall it from other early season areas like Alta and Steamboat on rare occasions. So I'd say not common at all, but not unprecedented either - so far at least.

I think this year's massive delay across the West is unprecedented!! I do not recall a worse year since I moved out west before 2000. Usually, there are pockets of goodness - like Cascades good, Colorado bad. Or Big Sky got a 40"+ dump. Always a bright spot.

The delay for the season board includes the best of the USA. Some do not want to announce their delays yet, but look at a few webcams and you see it's inevitable.

List of Delays: (Some announced, some obviously need to)
Alta
Snowbird
Solitude
Brighton
Park City
Deer Valley
Pallisades Tahoe
NorthStar
Mount Rose
Heavenly
Jackson Hole
Grand Targhee
Telluride
Mount Bachelor
Likely More........but might include most of MT, ID, WA, NM, the rest of UT, etc

And those ski resorts that have opened, it's really pathetic with just a couple of WRODs on a barely 0-20-inch base.

Yes, the breadth and extent are unprecedented.

 

[ChrisC]

Presumably not having big snowstorms in October and November is making it easier for DV to finish up construction projects before the resort opens for winter guests. Something must be behind schedule.

I will go check out Deer Valley next year. Let the kinks get worked out.

One interesting note: there is a bit of a design problem already. Supposedly, skiers backup the narrow connector trail to the Sultan lift coming from Keetley Express. The Sultan lift does not have the capacity to function as a popular skier pod + connector lift.

Also makes it clear to me and having that level of detail for snowmaking wet bulb is not a feature that makes any difference. I can tell enough by simply looking at the daily temperature forecast after a couple decades of paying attention to snowmaking in the southeast.

I have not looked at any of the new features of OpenSnow Premium. Did they focus group test the need for any of this?

I have a problem with OpenSnow's basic model reporting snowfall. It's wildly inaccurate. (I looked at South America's resorts' actuals (resort website) and model. Typically, things were 50-200% different for 2025.

Why would I want more stats based upon that BS??!!

Basically, OpenSnow is a glorified aggregator, more like a 90s/00s site versus an AI prognosticator.

 

[ChrisC]

I have no FOMO about scheduling our non-ski vacation to the Galapagos starting next Monday.

I will be curious to read your Galapagos reports - in particular, the diving. Right now, some think the Galapagos might be too cold, and more of a marathon versus fun (versus warm Pacific or Caribbean), especially if you went on a 1+ week cruise to the outer islands. I am sure the land activities will be great.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Basically, OpenSnow is a glorified aggregator, more like a 90s/00s site versus an AI prognosticator.

The value has always been with the narrative forecasts from people who know their local microclimates from personal experience. Data is only going to be what can be computerized.

(I looked at South America's resorts' actuals (resort website) and model. Typically, things were 50-200% different for 2025.

The models have never been good for South America and systematically overproject. I noticed this over a decade ago on SnowForecast. Hopefully the narrative forecaster Luke Stone knows this even though he's not based in South America.

I will be curious to read your Galapagos reports - in particular, the diving. Right now, some think the Galapagos might be too cold, and more of a marathon versus fun (versus warm Pacific or Caribbean), especially if you went on a 1+ week cruise to the outer islands. I am sure the land activities will be great.

I think a dedicated trip to Wolf and Darwin might be more of a marathon too. That's why the diving will only be two 2-tank morning dives land based on Santa Cruz before we get on the Evolution naturalist cruise ship.

 

[EMSC]

Always a bright spot.

Hey, Arizona Snowbowl is opening one day early (today) with 37" of snowfall so far this week Mammoth is also opening today with multiple lifts and probably the most open terrain in the US (no idea compared to Canada but I know Sunshine for example has a fair bit open already).

So much for La Nina skunking the SW ski areas.

But Utah for example is really, really hurting so far. Almost no snow and almost no snowmaking so far either.

 

[ChrisC]

So much for La Nina skunking the SW ski areas.

Yeah, who would think AZ Snowbowl would be a bright spot? Skiers in NM and AZ were born to suffer. NM especially seems to have undergone a permanent climate change, where a 300" season at Taos would be uncommon.

Mammoth, too, is a bit surprising in a La Niña year, considering the road kill elsewhere.

 

[ChrisC]

The value has always been with the narrative forecasts from people who know their local microclimates from personal experience. Data is only going to be what can be computerized.

Yes, correct. The local forecasts are beneficial.

I am surprised they have not recruited someone for Europe besides American-based Luke Stone. The Alps seem to have more microclimates and storm tracks than the mountain ranges of North America, so local insight could be helpful.

 

[MarzNC]

I have not looked at any of the new features of OpenSnow Premium. Did they focus group test the need for any of this?

I have a problem with OpenSnow's basic model reporting snowfall. It's wildly inaccurate. (I looked at South America's resorts' actuals (resort website) and model. Typically, things were 50-200% different for 2025.

I would certainly hope they had folks involved during the design and testing phases. Some of the forecasting tools have been available for a few years. They simply created ways for a subscriber to access the details if they were interested.

I don't use OpenSnow for locations outside N. America. Mostly I'm curious about multiple regions in the USA. When I've asked in the past about oddball stats, the answer has generally been that the software is picking up publicly available info from a resort's website. Of course, some resorts have a history of posting "marketing" numbers instead of snow totals provided by ski patrol.

As OpenSnow evolved since 2011, there were regional biases that were pretty obvious. The co-founders are big mountain skiers who know a lot about Colorado and much less about the northeast. Fair to say I didn't bother to use OpenSnow for the southeast in the early years. SkiSoutheast was/is much better for NC/VA/WV weather forecasts. However, the current guy doing Mid-Atlantic Daily Snows, which covers from NC to upstate NY has grown into a better writer. He's also figured out how to handle a diverse region that is actually several sub-regions with very different weather patterns. The forecaster for the midwest knew how to do that from the beginning. Much harder than what Evan needs to think about for Utah. (I followed Evan before he joined OpenSnow.) For 2025-26, there is a dedicated forecaster for New York who started out skiing Jiminy Peak and Gore before moving to SLC. Matt is back in the northeast in college studying Atmospheric Science. Fair to say, so far the guys on NYSkiBlog haven't had much use for OpenSnow for NY skiing.

I like using OpenSnow because there is a standardized format across regions and resorts. I can adjust my Favorites lists as my interests change from September to May. I can save a few webcams as Favorites for resorts on the list for upcoming trips. I read Daily Snows for assorted regions every so often. For me, it's worth the subscription price. YMMV

 

[Tony Crocker]

I don't recall ever seeing messaging like this from the most reliable early-season ski area on the continent. Still, it's only November 20; I'm sure they'll be 100% open within a few weeks.

This has piqued my curiosity. Looking at my progress reports from a couple of the widespread bad Novembers did not come up with anything as Targhee's local microclimate often bucks those trends, most famously in 1976-77 and 1980-81. Google's AI came up with this:

Grand Targhee
has a history of delaying its opening day due to warm, dry November weather, which prevents natural snow accumulation and effective snowmaking.
Key past instances of delayed openings include:

• 2021: The resort's scheduled opening of November 19 was postponed due to a lack of snow and warm temperatures. It eventually opened on November 24. The warm conditions were blamed for hindering both natural snowfall and snowmaking efforts.
• 2019: A warm and dry November forced the resort to delay its opening until the day before Thanksgiving, which was November 27. The initial terrain offerings were extremely limited.
• 2016: The resort had a planned opening date of November 18, which was pushed back due to mild weather and light snow. It ultimately opened on December 1. A spokesman noted that while the area received a significant amount of snow in October, it melted due to unseasonably warm conditions in November.
• Prior Years: Reports from 2016 indicate that it had been 8 or 9 years since a previous delay, placing a prior instance in approximately 2007 or 2008 [the year was 2009, TC]. Other snippets specifically mention delays in 1998 and 1999.

With regard to season-to-date snowfall, Targhee's website did not show it when I was writing my Nov. 14 report. Now it shows 50 inches season-to-date, but OpenSnow showed 29 inches on Nov. 1.

I then realized the best place to start was my data of Dec. 1 percents of terrain open, in a spreadsheet back to 2003-04. I can use end of season official November snowfall numbers.
2021: Open Nov. 24, 61% open Dec. 1 on a 30 inch base. I reported 60 inches snowfall, but end of season showed only 42 in November.
2019: Not open Nov. 26, 15% open Dec. 1 on 35 inches November snowfall. On Dec. 15, 79% open on 73 inches snowfall.
2016: Not open Nov. 26 on 20 inches snowfall, but 60% open on 57 inches snowfall Dec. 1. 65 inches more snow before Dec. 15.
2009: Not open Nov. 21, 14% open Dec. 1 on 49 inches November snowfall. Dec. 15, 50% open on 77 inches, 75% open Dec. 22 on 88 inches. 100% open Jan. 1 on 102 inches, slowest start of the years where I have detail info.

Back to 1997-98 I wrote progress reports but they were more cursory. Still, this is what I wrote Nov. 16, 1999:

everything in the western U.S. is much worse than normal so far, with no relief expected until maybe next week. I would not personally want to commit money to any western ski destination before New Year's based on where things stand right now.

1999: Dec. 1, 9 inch base on 28 inches snowfall. But on Dec. 16:

Regional leader Grand Targhee now has a 33-66 inch base after major snow this week, so it can add another year to its perfect Christmas reliability record.

1998: Nov. 29: "Regional leader Grand Targhee is open but with a below average base depth of 2-3 feet." End-of-season stats said 45 inches November snowfall and 65 inches December. These numbers are almost identical to 2009.

Before 1997 I only have snowfall numbers back to 1976. There are three more seasons with low Nov/Dec snowfall.
1991: Nov. 52, Dec. 59, similar to 1998 and 2009.
The other two were worse.
1986: Nov. 48, Dec. 28. This is the year I spent Christmas Week at the Alta Peruvian (Nov. 58, Dec. 13.5). Alta snow was OK, but had the worst liftlines of my life since the rest of Utah was so bad. Targhee's terrain is overall less rugged than Alta's and I'm sure it didn't have the crowds.
1976: Nov. 15, Dec. 54. This season is one of Targhee's selling points. Alta had 13.5 and 17. Central Sierra Snow Lab had 11 and 5. Crater Lake had 6 and 11. Mt. Rainier Paradise had 7 and 34. Jackson had 8 and 28.5. Gothic CO Snow Lab had 22.5 and 7. Red Mt. Pass CO had 17.5 and 5.5. Loveland had 16 and 24. Winter Park AFAIK was #2 to Targhee with 25 and 25.

I have no data but anecdotally I have heard that Whistler did not escape the early season drought. Sunshine had 21.7 and 50, but December was its highest month and the season overall 163 inches, 65% of normal. There is no question that 1976-77 is in a class by itself for widespread extreme western early season drought. I'm sure someone will recall that it was quite the opposite in the Northeast (Mt. Washington 99 and 82 on the way to a 496 total).

 

[Tony Crocker]

NM especially seems to have undergone a permanent climate change, where a 300" season at Taos would be uncommon.

I wonder about this too. But is there a meteorological reason why NM precipitation would decline when AZ and SoCal have not?

La Niña year

The minimum definition of La Niña is an ONI Index reading of -0.5C for 3 consecutive months. And for a meaningful event you would want to see 6 months and some values more like -1.0C. So what's the reality for the past 2 ski seasons? In 2024-25 ONI was exactly -0.5C for two months. The most recent reading of -0.5C is the first one for this year. The reason El Nino and La Niña are useful tools is that those readings tend to be stable from about July to January. Therefore I would be surprised to see a significant strengthening of La Niña during the upcoming ski season.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Mammoth, too, is a bit surprising

Not really. There have been several seasons where in November/December Mammoth got a lot of snow while Tahoe was getting mostly rain. 2012-13 and 2017-18 stand out because post-January was relatively dry in those years so 2013 was lumped in as a 4 year drought from Tahoe's perspective. Mammoth's skier visits were quite average in those two seasons. 2005-06 started that way too, but dumped throughout the Sierra later in the season. The current opening from Mammoth's perspective looks somewhat deficient because the rain/snow line was above Main Lodge for over half the storm.

I think this year's massive delay across the West is unprecedented!! I do not recall a worse year since I moved out west before 2000.

See my post #33 above. Mid-Novembers 1999 and 2007 looked very similar to now. The bad starts we remember later are the ones where it persists through December. I have demonstrated how that happened across the West in 1976-77. The second worst November/December for snowfall (60% vs. 38% in 1976-77) was just two years ago. That one faded from memory after 130+% snowfall from January to mid-March. The next worst November/Decembers (I created a table for this prompted by two years ago): 64% in 1980-81, 67% in 1986-87, 68% in 2011-12 and 2017-18. 1980-81 and 2011-12 were bad overall seasons in enough regions to depress US skier visits significantly, so those are the ones besides 1976-77 that people tend to remember.

The most common scenario would be for a few but not all regions to rally to a decent Christmas. Since we don't know which ones that might be, I certainly would not recommend committing $$ anywhere before January. I've gotten on an airplane exactly twice to ski before January. In 1995 I booked Colorado in late November after huge start there. In 2018 I went to NYC with Liz, then to the NASJA event in Stratton regardless of snow.

 

[Sbooker]

1976: Nov. 15, Dec. 54. This season is one of Targhee's selling points. Alta had 13.5 and 17. Central Sierra Snow Lab had 11 and 5. Crater Lake had 6 and 11. Mt. Rainier Paradise had 7 and 34. Jackson had 8 and 28.5. Gothic CO Snow Lab had 22.5 and 7. Red Mt. Pass CO had 17.5 and 5.5. Loveland had 16 and 24. Winter Park AFAIK was #2 to Targhee with 25 and 25.

Crikey. That’s grim.
Even though I have no intention of going anywhere near North America for skiing this winter I’ll make a point of keeping an eye on progress.
I’m backing Grand Targhee will be 100% open when the fat man comes.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Crikey. That’s grim.

The point is what an outlier that season was. It looks like we get a slow start in the 60-70% range maybe a bit more often than once a decade. So 38% is exceedingly rare, 2.5 standard deviations. That's a 0.5% event of a normal distribution, which I realize is an imperfect assumption for weather/climate events. 2011-12 and 2017-18 were 9% events in a normal distribution, which is not too far off the actual 11% incidence in the past 53 years.

On the high end the snowiest November/Decembers were 155% in 1983-84, 154% in 1996-97 and 148% in 2010-11.

 

[Tony Crocker]

The worst case scenario (1976, 1986, 2011) is what some meteorologists in 2017 called "Heartbreak Ridge" or Godzilla Ridge:" massive high pressure blocking all storms from most of the western U.S for multiple weeks.

This is why I'm less inclined to be hitting the panic button right now. It has rained here all day, and this will be the wettest November in L.A. since 1982. Yes it's still too warm, but that's not as bad as being locked out of any precipitation for an extended period (see Mammoth and Arizona Snowbowl). The storm track is predicted to retreat far north next week, and lots of places will be in trouble if that pattern persists far into December.

 

[Tony Crocker]

No surprise after the rain here yesterday that Arizona Snowbowl got another 10 inches. It opens 21% today on 47 inches snowfall and a 37 inch base.

 

[ChrisC]

Copper mtn looks kinda like winter (but not really).
Main Vein in center village for the public:

No FOMO. More like a hard pass.

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[ChrisC]

No surprise after the rain here yesterday that Arizona Snowbowl got another 10 inches. It opens 21% today on 47 inches snowfall and a 37 inch base.

Targhee and Wolf Creek can turn around rather quickly since their terrain is more moderately pitched.

It's already starting:

The minimum definition of La Niña is an ONI Index reading of -0.5C for 3 consecutive months. And for a meaningful event you would want to see 6 months and some values more like -1.0C. So what's the reality for the past 2 ski seasons? In 2024-25 ONI was exactly -0.5C for two months. The most recent reading of -0.5C is the first one for this year. The reason El Nino and La Niña are useful tools is that those readings tend to be stable from about July to January. Therefore I would be surprised to see a significant strengthening of La Niña during the upcoming ski season.

For media purposes, it's either La Niña or El Niño, and none of the scientific indicators matter. They have nothing to write about if it's neutral.

 

[berkshireskier]

Grand Targhee is looking very lean, down at the base. Just a light dusting of snow on the lower trails. Ugh.