Western North America Conditions 2025/26

Heavenly doing better than I expected opening advanced/expert runs. They already had opened Ellie's and Pinnacles off Sky chair although both are somewhat W-facing and may have some thin places.

Photo of Milky Way Bowl, one of my favorites there although best hit on higher traverse coming from CA to NV or from hiking even higher.
MilkyWayBowl.jpg
Heavenly Mountain Facebook post today (with my bolding): "New week, more terrain. Our teams have been working their tails off and started the week off strong by adding North Bowl and Olympic to the mix in Nevada today. In the afternoon, we dropped the rope on the Face and opened Roundabout, officially beginning ski and ride access back to California Base for the season. Oh yeah, probably worth mentioning we are opening Mott Canyon tomorrow as w."
 
Mott Canyon opening is the best sign of decent coverage at Heavenly. I think there may still be issues at Tahoe lower elevations. Gunbarrel and East Bowl were not mentioned. Still I’d guess 2/3 of Heavenly is in good shape now.
 
I just booked our lodging at Mammoth, 1/2-1/6 refundable till Thursday night so if the storm doesn't pan out, we'll have flexibility. Praying the snow happens. Just looking at some Tahoe webcams, wow, bare ground at mid mountain and pouring rain.
Looking good for our trip.

1767120147112.png
 
If that forecast holds, I would not expect the top of Mammoth to be much Jan. 3-6.

On another note, I have always wondered how these pictures get taken of a snow capped Baldy backdrop to downtown L.A.
IMG_7015a.jpeg

I can get that kind of view briefly from the Santa Monica Freeway but not a great place for a photo op. Now I know. Liz and I did a 5 mile hike in the Baldwin Hills Sunday morning (first time I've ever been there on foot), and there's the view!

The rain/snow line Dec. 24-26 never got much below 8,000 feet, so that's what you see in the picture. SoCal is among the group of ski areas experiencing its worst holiday season in over 40 years. Open are 9% of Snow Summit and 20% of Bear Mt. Mountain High will be closed for "at least two weeks" while mud is cleared and roads repaired in Wrightwood. The Baldy hairpins were down for a couple of days but Baldy is open today for scenic rides and "limited snow play." As far as snowmaking repair of rain damage is concerned, freezing level will not descend into the ski areas until Saturday night.
 
Last edited:
Heavenly Mountain Facebook post today (with my bolding): "New week, more terrain. Our teams have been working their tails off and started the week off strong by adding North Bowl and Olympic to the mix in Nevada today. In the afternoon, we dropped the rope on the Face and opened Roundabout, officially beginning ski and ride access back to California Base for the season. Oh yeah, probably worth mentioning we are opening Mott Canyon tomorrow as w."

I am still always impressed by how the Sierra can go from 0 to 80/100% with one big storm cycle.

Gunbarrel and East Bowl were not mentioned. Still I’d guess 2/3 of Heavenly is in good shape now.

On the trail report, Heavenly does have Gunbarrel marked as open. I see they are referring to it as 'The Face'.


Some recent articles regarding low snowfall seasons in the West:




A History of Bad Ski Seasons Part 1 – Weather​

The most recent bad season in terms of weather in the West was in 2017-’18, which was reported to be one of the driest seasons on record for U.S. ski resorts. Snowfall at ski resorts near Lake Tahoe was down 45 percent compared to the season before, Crested Butte was down 57 percent.

Video: Governor Shows California’s Low Snowpack​

Can’t see the video? Click here.

At Taos Ski Valley, the resort called on local Native Americans to perform a snow dance, but with no luck. Taos ended the season with only 78 inches of snowfall, a full 60 percent decline from the previous year. And the 2017-’18 season wasn’t an anomaly. Resorts have been recording record warm winters regularly over the past decade.

The 2015-’16 season was dubbed the ‘non-winter’ on the East Coast. The season before that was considered the worst ski season in Utah’s history, some resorts in Canada didn’t even open, and skiers at Whistler Blackcomb had to ride trams to mid-mountain just to reach snow.

There is no doubt that the past decade has seen more sad seasons than epic ones, but at the very least, resorts managed to operate because of snowmaking technologies.

Ask any old-timer in the West about the worst season ever, and they’ll likely tell you about the winter of 1976-’77.

At the time, snowmaking was mostly nonexistent, so in 1976, when the ski season arrived, the snow didn’t and ski areas started to feel the heat. As slopes remained starved for snow, Governor Brown of California declared an official drought. At Whistler, rental shop employees stood guard in front of rocky patches on the slope, demanding their customers take their skis off and walk down through the rocks.


Colorado was just as bad. Aspen only saw 15 inches of snowfall between Nov. 1st and Dec. 26. In Steamboat, locals shoveled snow from the trees onto the barren slopes. By December, Colorado Senator Haskell urged President Ford to declare Colorado’s high country a disaster area eligible for economic relief, but his plea had the reverse effect when tourists heard the news and began canceling their winter vacations. Crested Butte reported 100 percent lodging cancellations before Christmas, and Telluride and Purgatory didn’t open for the holidays.

The industry had barely begun to recover when it happened again in 1980-’81. As yet another drought left slopes completely parched, resorts started looking for ways to compensate for low snowfall.

Michael Berry, the president of the National Ski Areas Association at the time, remembers that season as an “epiphany year for the industry in the Rocky Mountain West. There might have been some people saying they didn’t need snowmaking going into that season, but no one—no one—was saying that coming out.”

Result: The Artificial Snow Revolution​

Mountain High's current snowmaking system.
Low snow years led to the rise of artificial snow. What will skiing after the pandemic look like?Photo courtesy of Mountain High Resort
After the 1976-’78 and 1980-’81 seasons, the industry evolved. Snowmaking became widespread, and resorts were able to ensure snow, even in drought years.

Old snowmaking technology was expensive, energy-intensive, and created boilerplate textured snow. New, high-tech snowmaking systems are more efficient, increasing the rate of conversion from water to snow without requiring an increase in water, and can even operate at warmer temperatures than they used to. Some systems are now automated, activating snowmaking during favorable conditions.

These new systems not only create better-quality snow than they used to, but they also allow resorts to open earlier and close later, effectively extending the ski season, and saving the season during warmer years.

During the ‘non-winter’ of 2015-’16 in the East, Loon Mountain reportedly received only 66 inches of snowfall, but after having invested $3 million to double their snowmaking capacity and upgrade efficiency by 75 percent, Loon credited the new snowmaking system for rescuing the season. And it isn’t just Loon that is putting money into these new technologies; resorts from the East to the West are innovating to give skiers reliable snow.

However, the industry still faces the challenges of a warming climate. A study by the Climate Impact Lab in 2018 found that if the current warming trend continues, resorts should expect to lose a month of the ski season within the next two decades. This will likely prompt new innovations in snowmaking.
 
If that forecast holds, I would not expect the top of Mammoth to be much Jan. 3-6.
True, but 22 will be open along with soft snow and chopped up powder everywhere, every day. I was hoping for some clear days and oddly praying for no snow to get the kids into the Dropouts for the first time, probably won't happen this trip but they each got some new 80-90 mm waisted, rockered skis, so hopefully they can lear to ski some powder finally. Looking around the country, could be MUCH worse.
 
Alta posted an article about how their snowmaking is evolving. The timeframe for using the snowguns is October until Christmas. I wonder if that will change in low snow seasons. I doubt Alta would have snowguns on during the day. But nighttime snowmaking could build up the base for both January and April.

December 18, 2025
 
What a strange Western US Snow Water Equivalent Map so far this winter:
  • Mammoth Zone - maybe at 180% of normal
  • Tahoe - 100% of normal
  • Giant Swath from Oregon to Utah to Colorado - well below normal
  • Interior Northwest - seems to be recovering

LINK

1767184531208.png
 
Last edited:
If that forecast holds, I would not expect the top of Mammoth to be much Jan. 3-6.

On another note, I have always wondered how these pictures get taken of a snow capped Baldy backdrop to downtown L.A.
View attachment 48454
I can get that kind of view briefly from the Santa Monica Freeway but not a great place for a photo op. Now I know. Liz and I did a 5 mile hike in the Baldwin Hills Sunday morning (first time I've ever been there on foot), and there's the view!

The rain/snow line Dec. 24-26 never got much below 8,000 feet, so that's what you see in the picture. SoCal is among the group of ski areas experiencing its worst holiday season in over 40 years. Open are 9% of Snow Summit and 20% of Bear Mt. Mountain High will be closed for "at least two weeks" while mud is cleared and roads repaired in Wrightwood. The Baldy hairpins were down for a couple of days but Baldy is open today for scenic rides and "limited snow play." As far as snowmaking repair of rain damage is concerned, freezing level will not descend into the ski areas until Saturday night.
Tony, I snapped this photo near Ontario, CA heading east on I-15 on Dec 27, 2025 not long after those days of heavy rain/snow in much of CA. Is that Mt. Baldy with the nice little coating of white on top? Same area 3 hikers recently died? Where's the Baldy ski area in this photo?
27 dec 2025 baldy ontario view.jpg
 
Wrong (I didn't mean to say @jimk here) Tony, but I thought it could be Mt Baldy (on right) as I-15, which run more N/S than E/W and runs directly N passing Daybreak Plaza so angle over closed permanently? Mall seems like it would point to Baldy. @Tony Crocker can confirm or deny. (Following is also an edit including adding crop of @jimk 's photo) Doesn't sign say Ontario Daybreak Plaza?
27 dec 2025 baldy ontario view.jpg

Post on SkiTalk yesterday by someone who skied Kirkwood on Monday and Heavenly on Tuesday:
"Hit Heavenly (NV mostly) today. Pulled into Stagecoach at 8:45 and still got a spot next to the lodge in the front.. blackouts must be helping.
Conditions... were 'fine'? Could definitely use more snow - noticeable difference between Kirkwood and Heavenly. Groomers off comet / dipper were all skiing great; Olympic was pretty good. Hit Tamarack and there was nothing skiiable off of it (not enough snow coverage); runs off Stagecoach looked really choppy (ungroomed) or were groomed but... really rough. I planned a short day anyway. At least the lines weren't long."
 
Last edited:
Both of you are wrong. The sign is for the Ontario Mills Mall. See Google Earth pic below:
OntarioMills_Baldy.jpg

Both sets of snow covered mountains in Jimk's pic are between 8,000 and 8,300 feet. You can see from the yellow ruler that the straight line view from Ontario Mills to the top of Baldy at 10K goes through not over those mountains. The Baldy ski area (yellow pin) tops out at 8,600 and is between the peak and the mountains in Jimk's picture.
 
Last edited:
I think it is more important to share that patroller who was seriously injured in avalanche early on Christmas has passed away.
Mammoth is in limited lower mountain only operation today due to the memorial service for Cole Murphy. I am not aware that the top of the mountain has been open at any time yet since the big storm yet. The consolidator website SnoCountry generally lists the maximum that has been open in recent days and ignores temporary closures for wind, etc. SnoCountry is saying 2/3 open.
 
Its going to be a bit too much snow and wind but what can we do....kids have stuff later in the week next week, so I guess we go.
 
Its going to be a bit too much snow and wind but what can we do....kids have stuff later in the week next week, so I guess we go.
Ended up pushing it out a day, so skiing Sunday through Wednesday instead of Saturday through Tuesday. Saturday looks like a rough one, Sunday probably too.
 
Saturday looks like a rough one, Sunday probably too.
Yes, Mammoth is like the Alps; better not to be there during big storms. We plan to drive Tuesday and ski Wednesday-Friday. No guarantees on that; weather could still be unsettled
 
Targhee's track record remains intact per this quote from Powderchaser Steve two days ago:
I chased to Grand Targhee on both Saturday and Sunday with scoring my first legitimate powder days since I fractured my back last February. Sunday was the grand finale as SW winds Saturday turned N, NW in the afternoon and cranked out low-density fluff on top of the perfect cushion.
There's little relief in the worst regions. Alta's 60 inches snowfall is the worst since 1976-77 and Utah (37% of normal snowfall) like Front Range Colorado (47%) has the least terrain open at New Year's in my records. The Southwest is similar at 50%, though that region has 3 November/Decembers under 40% (1976-77, 1999-2000 and 2017-18). Oregon is as bad as Utah ~35%, though Crystal is at 65% and farther north the PNW is up to 80%. California has rallied to 71%, though that's 90% at high elevation and less than 50% at low elevation. The US Northern Rockies are also at 71% with similar divergence based on elevation. Western Canada remains the winner at 133% with record 100+ inch Decembers at Lake Louise, Sunshine, Kicking Horse and Revelstoke.
 
Last edited:
Ended up pushing it out a day, so skiing Sunday through Wednesday instead of Saturday through Tuesday. Saturday looks like a rough one, Sunday probably too.
Yes, Mammoth is like the Alps; better not to be there during big storms. We plan to drive Tuesday and ski Wednesday-Friday. No guarantees on that; weather could still be unsettled

Looks very snowy! Fun, yet what lower lifts does Mammoth try to run during storms? Just Canyon Lodge?

Palisades Tahoe, Kirkwood, and often Heavenly are unskiable during Winter Storms. Northstar offers great semi-sheltered tree skiing, as well as Homewood and Diamond Peak/Incline to a lesser extent.

However, I do not know - is the drive from Los Angeles to Mammoth as bad as the drive from SF to Tahoe over Donner Pass?
 
However, I do not know - is the drive from Los Angeles to Mammoth as bad as the drive from SF to Tahoe over Donner Pass?
Not at all. It's all desert at 4,000 feet or lower until the last 30 miles. And it's easier now from L.A. than when I started skiing there in late 1970's. Only 15 miles are two lane now vs. 125 miles then. Coming from the leeward side there is often no snow on the ground at all until the 3 mile exit road from 395. Occasionally snow extends 20 miles farther down to Sherwin Grade. I've seen snow on the ground in Bishop (43 miles from Mammoth) exactly once, at New Year's 2006. I never experience traffic problems on the drive unless weather or construction related.

The caveat is that the drive from Orange and San Diego counties has become worse with the growth of high desert exurbs and that almost all of the 95 miles between I-15 and the the 395/14 junction are either through those exurbs with traffic lights or on two lane highway. Over the past few decades Kern and Inyo counties have steadily upgraded their sections of 14/395 to 4-lane freeway while San Bernardino County has done little to its part of 395.

Fun, yet what lower lifts does Mammoth try to run during storms? Just Canyon Lodge?
It varies by wind and intensity of storms. Almost any storm will close the top, 9 and 13-14. Storm powder skiing can still be good if mid-altitude lifts 3, 5 and especially 22 remain open. If those lifts can't run, lift lines start getting worse so I recommend driving over to June Mt. if you can. In the strongest storms, lifts out of Main Lodge and the Mill will close too and skiers will be confined to Canyon and Eagle. This is equivalent to a bad weather day in the Alps, probably not worth skiing at all if you can't get to June. And of course that level of storm is the type that will push farther east and make the driving on 395 between Mammoth and June difficult.
 
Last edited:
Back
Top