Western North America Conditions 2025/26

[EMSC]

I would have avoided skiing entirely.

Agreed. Either that, or pull out that credit card and find the last overpriced room up canyon so you start at lift opening no matter if the canyon itself is under avi control lockdown or not. Though I can't imagine all that many days per season qualify for that level of spend, even at Alta/Bird.

 

[Tony Crocker]

James’ option would not have worked this season. As of yesterday the Utah areas outside the Cottonwoods had less that half the snow from this storm, and more importantly were still only 60% open on low tide bases because of how bad the season has been.

I’m occasionally annoyed with OpenSnow touting powder days at certain places. It’s not a powder day if there’s not an adequate base under the powder.

In the olden days, as I successfully executed with 17 inches new on President’s Day 2007, I would go to Solitude. I doubt that works any more in the Ikon era.

 

[MarzNC]

Still dumping on Wolf Creek as of 3:30pm on Feb. 20. I'll be there next Wednesday.

 

[kingslug]

this is where i don't get it.. My ass would have been at mouth of the canyon at 5am...No way on earth would i wait in that kind of line

Then you would be waiting 2.5 hours in the car..then 1 hour up the canyon
So..that .5 hours more than I spent...hmm

 

[kingslug]

I would have avoided skiing entirely. The first major storm after a lengthy dry/warm stretch is seldom worth it IMO. So much stress and effort for maybe the possibility of a couple untracked runs? Small to moderate daily refreshes are where it’s at.

I should have went to pc...no traffic..and very good conditions..as i experienced today.
And 9990 had better terrain than what was open at alta..unless you waited on huge Collins line to get to the high T.
Or a 200 foot line to get into supreme bowl.
I skied powder all day today and never waited on anything..

 

[kingslug]

 

[Tony Crocker]

I would agree that 2 feet new at Park City is preferable to 4+ feet and the traffic junkshow in LCC. However, some of Park City must be low tide at now 78% open. Still, that's an improvement over 61% last week.

 

[Tony Crocker]

This week's bonanza of snow has been mostly in the Sierra and Utah's Cottonwoods, but there are a few big winners in other regions: Arizona Snowbowl 46, Wolf Creek 50, Fernie 42. Schweitzer got 32 inches, moving from 55% to 99% open. Most of Colorado had an average week of 1-1.5 feet, which is not going to get those areas out of their big deficit.

The SoCal areas got 3 feet. Snow Summit is 90% open. Geronimo at Bear, Slide Peak at Snow Valley and Mt. High East are not yet open. Baldy's reports in recent years are candid. They are running most lifts, but warning of highly variable coverage due to wind stripping vs. deposition.

Sierra skiers' gloating will be short lived. It's supposed to rain to 8,000+ feet at Tahoe and 9,000+ feet at Mammoth next Tuesday.

 

[jamesdeluxe]

This week's bonanza of snow has been mostly in the Sierra and Utah's Cottonwoods, but there are a few big winners in other regions: Arizona Snowbowl 46, Wolf Creek 50, Fernie 42. Schweitzer got 32 inches, moving from 55% to 99% open. Most of Colorado had an average week of 1-1.5 feet, which is not going to get those areas out of their big deficit.

Great for skiers but wondering how much of a revenue shortfall ski areas/resorts/adjacent sectors are looking at given that all three "winter holiday" periods (Xmas, MLK, Presidents) are past. For example as noted in the Mammoth thread, United Airlines seems to be stuck with a lot of empty seats on its nonstop flights to western ski destinations. I wonder how Telluride is doing given that they had a strike in addition to the snow drought.

 

[Tony Crocker]

I would expect the Rockies region to be down some in this year’s NSAA Kottke Report. There are no state by state breakdowns though. And the decline will be more modest than in bad years in the Pacific States due to higher proportion of destination skiers who are inflexible.

United is not stuck with the whole tab on those flights. The resorts guarantee a minimum occupancy to get those seasonal flights into resort area airports. This was a big issue with Mammoth’s financial crisis in 2011-12.

 

[jamesdeluxe]

United is not stuck with the whole tab on those flights. The resorts guarantee a minimum occupancy to get those seasonal flights into resort area airports.

Right, I forgot about that.

 

[snowtrekker]

I wonder how Telluride is doing given that they had a strike in addition to the snow drought.

My wife and I leave tomorrow for a week in the San Juans (staying in Telluride and Silverton) with plans to ski Telluride, Purgatory, and a pre-booked 3 days at Silverton. While most of the trip was booked in advance, some potential changes of plans had me searching. There is a huge quantity of relatively affordable lodging options available. I am meeting friends who drove earlier from Denver, and I had originally scheduled a shuttle from Montrose to Telluride, after which we would then cram into one car. But rentals are so cheap now I've cancelled the shuttle and got my own car for the week ($360 for an SUV now vs. >$1000 this fall).

 

[EMSC]

wondering how much of a revenue shortfall ski areas/resorts/adjacent sectors are looking at given that all three "winter holiday" periods (Xmas, MLK, Presidents) are past.

Depends on the precise region, but many western resorts also consider much of March as prime season due to the huge numbers of spring break skiers that traditionally come from the east coast during school break weeks. Most years that means weekday lift lines throughout March that are as long as the weekend lift lines at places in the central Colo mtns for example. While I expect those numbers will be less than typical, most of those ksiers are pretty inflexible and will probably come anyway. Especially as even with low-ish totals compared to Tahoe or Utah, you can be sure the email marketing from Vail and Alterra, etc... has hyped the new snowfall to cartoonish levels to make it seem like Colo is now doing just fine.

 

[Tony Crocker]

My wife and I leave tomorrow for a week in the San Juans (staying in Telluride and Silverton) with plans to ski Telluride, Purgatory, and a pre-booked 3 days at Silverton.

Purgatory got 30 inches last week and Telluride 21. Telluride is 74% open, which tells you that the steepest terrain in Coloradod is not yet ready for prime time. I do not know where snowtrekker lives, but Silverton requires several days (and preferable a week) of sleeping at altitude before you will be routinely hiking above the lift that tops out at 12,200 feet.

but many western resorts also consider much of March as prime season

That is primarily a Colorado phenomenon IMHO, as evidenced by Vail's premium day ticket pricing for the entire month that does not apply to their resorts in other states. Mammoth gets a bump during California breaks that are more tied to Easter. But an April spring break week is not at the level of President's Week for example.

I would expect the Rockies region to be down some in this year’s NSAA Kottke Report.

What are the largest year-over-year declines in US skier visits? Two stand out.
1980-81 (72% of normal snow, 71% in Nov/Dec) was 18% lower than 1979-80 (94%/82%). Snowmaking was primitive then vs. today.
2011-12 (81% of normal snow, 66% in Nov/Dec) was 16% lower than 2010-11 (130%/142%). Some of that has to be ascribed to the record high snowfall in 2010-11, which tied 2007-08 for highest overall skier visits at that time. The 2011-12 decline was only 10% over a skier visit trendline for that season. So my best guess would be less than a 10% drop in US skier visits in 2025-26 to maybe 56 million, because the Northeast is having a good year. In 2011-12 the Pacific Northwest was the exception region with high snowfall.

Rockies region skier visits declined only 9% in 2011-12 vs. 2010-11 but 39% in 1980-81 vs. 1979-80.

2025-26 was similar to the above seasons at the end of December but as of mid-February had 68% of normal snow (58% excluding Northeast). So it's clearly the worst aside from 1976-77 at that point. As of the end of December 1976-77 had 51% of normal snow (38% excluding Northeast). January 1977 was not much better than January 2026.

 

[snowtrekker]

Purgatory got 30 inches last week and Telluride 21. Telluride is 74% open, which tells you that the steepest terrain in Coloradod is not yet ready for prime time.

We only have one full day in Telluride, which I have never been to before, so I have accepted that this will be more of an exploratory stop to check out the town and scenery around the resort. Any steeper terrain would be a bonus. The way this season has been going, I am just happy that the Chair 7 lift from the town is open, as that's the most convenient to where I'll be staying.

I do not know where snowtrekker lives, but Silverton requires several days (and preferable a week) of sleeping at altitude before you will be routinely hiking above the lift that tops out at 12,200 feet.

I live at sea level, so acclimation was a big factor in the itinerary. The Silverton days are at the end of the trip (Thurs-Sat), the first of which is the all-day 6-run heli. So I'll have 5 nights at elevation prior to any significant hiking, assuming the heli day does not get pushed due to weather. Hopefully that timing also allows the fresh snow from this past week to settle and lower avalanche danger some.

 

[kingslug]

Lcc was a total shitshow today..and for what...
I went to pc and skied all day..pretty much no lines..9990 had zero line...
Lcc and bcc are a disaster now..
Its exhausting...ikon has ruined it..
Oh well

 

[MarzNC]

Depends on the precise region, but many western resorts also consider much of March as prime season due to the huge numbers of spring break skiers that traditionally come from the east coast during school break weeks. Most years that means weekday lift lines throughout March that are as long as the weekend lift lines at places in the central Colo mtns for example. While I expect those numbers will be less than typical, most of those ksiers are pretty inflexible and will probably come anyway. Especially as even with low-ish totals compared to Tahoe or Utah, you can be sure the email marketing from Vail and Alterra, etc... has hyped the new snowfall to cartoonish levels to make it seem like Colo is now doing just fine.

For Taos, the most expensive lodging is during the Texas spring break the second week of March. Locals from Albuquerque don't bother to ski, no matter how good the snow is that week.

Oklahoma is becoming a market for ski resorts since it's within reasonable driving distance. Any college break is noticeable.

 

[MarzNC]

Lcc was a total shitshow today..and for what...
I went to pc and skied all day..pretty much no lines..9990 had zero line...
Lcc and bcc are a disaster now..
Its exhausting...ikon has ruined it..
Oh well

The increasing population of local season pass holders for Alta and Snowbird may be far more of a factor than Ikon/Mountain Collective.

 

[MarzNC]

The 9 inches of new snow made quite a difference for Taos. The Kachina side was powdery, while the front side was much denser. There was more wind on the front side during the snowstorm. All lifts closed on Feb. 20 by 1:30 because of high winds and no visibility. Getting down from Whistlestop took a while.

Near the top of Lift 4, February 21, 2016

Tell Glade looks fairly well covered

 

[jamesdeluxe]

Lcc and bcc are a disaster now.. Its exhausting...ikon has ruined it..

The increasing population of local season pass holders for Alta and Snowbird may be far more of a factor than Ikon/Mountain Collective.

Hadn't skiers from the two coasts been relocating en masse to SLC for years, primarily for Alta/Snowbird, and Ikon then exacerbated the existing issue? I can't remember which FTOer the collective advised to consider that very point before moving there. Every person has a different point at which his/her head explodes due to crowds/traffic (mine is very low and I guess that we just saw kingslug's!). @jimk seems to be such a happy camper, primarily as a Snowbird regular. What's his special sauce: Zen meditation? Retirement bliss? A magic carpet to fly over the mind numbing traffic?

One could more easily argue that Ikon singlehandedly ruined Solitude by making it all you can eat. I've mentioned arriving many times on the Saturday early morning flight from EWR up through the early 2010s and Solitude had neither crowds nor BCC red snakes or parking issues, even on powder days.