Western North America Conditions 2025/26

[jamesdeluxe]

Incoming for California: summer weather similar to what we get from the Gulf of Mexico. Time for you to deal!

As summer approaches, the marine heat wave will probably contribute to elevated overnight temperatures, leading to reduced relief from hot daytime conditions. There’s also increased potential for uncomfortable humidity levels — something that is unusual in the West.​

 

[tseeb]

Outside temp was 38 degrees this morning at my house in San Jose, CA at 3:30 AM when dog wanted out. I turned heat on for first time since returning from road-trip Canada, etc on 3/11. There was a day or two when we ran gas fireplace in our bedroom to warm it up but today was first time upstairs went below 65.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Incoming for California: summer weather similar to what we get from the Gulf of Mexico. Time for you to deal!

Paywalled if you click directly. I turned off javascript and it only gave me a two sentence first paragraph.

I'm going to call anyway. Articles purporting to forecast weather 2-4 months from now are 99% worthless clickbait.

High humidity here is widespread only with tropical storms like Hilary in August 2023. The beach cities are more humid, but only uncomfortable if it gets over 80F, which is not often.

Will the ocean get warm enough to generate widespread humidity? Not by my recollection. Most summers it doesn't get over 70F. I recall two, 1971 and 2014, where the water got to 75F, and I don't think inland temperatures/humidity were much affected.

 

[Tony Crocker]

US and Canada Season Recap from OpenSnow.

Meanwhile I have a preliminary comparison to the infamous 1976-77 season:

Nov.-Dec. Percent Normal​

California​

Pacific Northwest​

Interior Canada​

U.S. Northern Rockies​

Utah​

Northern & Central Colorado​

Southern & Western Colorado​

Northeast​

US West​

West​

All​

76-77​

29%​

13%​

88%​

39%​

15%​

46%​

38%​

142%​

30%​

38%​

51%​

80-81​

31%​

68%​

140%​

71%​

44%​

44%​

48%​

124%​

51%​

64%​

71%​

86-87​

32%​

80%​

84%​

69%​

43%​

66%​

94%​

79%​

64%​

67%​

68%​

11-12​

34%​

87%​

102%​

73%​

54%​

45%​

79%​

55%​

62%​

68%​

66%​

17-18​

26%​

93%​

106%​

109%​

43%​

64%​

33%​

97%​

61%​

68%​

71%​

23-24​

28%​

63%​

71%​

51%​

67%​

71%​

67%​

67%​

58%​

60%​

61%​

25-26​

71%​

59%​

133%​

71%​

37%​

47%​

50%​

135%​

56%​

67%​

75%​

Season Percent Normal​

California​

Pacific Northwest​

Interior Canada​

U.S. Northern Rockies​

Utah​

Northern & Central Colorado​

Southern & Western Colorado​

Northeast​

US West​

West​

All​

76-77​

46%​

48%​

74%​

66%​

56%​

69%​

52%​

131%​

56%​

58%​

68%​

80-81​

67%​

66%​

95%​

69%​

68%​

64%​

54%​

81%​

65%​

69%​

71%​

86-87​

65%​

82%​

87%​

65%​

67%​

70%​

87%​

98%​

73%​

75%​

78%​

91-92​

87%​

69%​

75%​

72%​

73%​

85%​

70%​

88%​

76%​

76%​

77%​

11-12​

73%​

122%​

124%​

97%​

68%​

59%​

74%​

67%​

82%​

88%​

86%​

14-15​

39%​

49%​

84%​

67%​

58%​

90%​

79%​

93%​

64%​

67%​

70%​

25-26*​

59%​

65%​

111%​

59%​

50%​

51%​

54%​

110%​

56%​

64%​

70%​

* = through March 31

While April is not done yet, you can see that overall this season was comparable to 1976-77 in the US West and worse in the Rockies. I will not have complete official numbers for 2025-26 until late May. April is going to improve some of them but I'm sure 2025-26 will hold its position as second worst, especially when you consider what's not in the above numbers: the March meltdown and excessive rain in many regions.

However, you can also see that for the key Nov/Dec start to the season, 1976-77 is in a class by itself.

2014-15 was much worse in the Pacific states and western Canada than 2025-26 but much better in the Rockies. But the dry or rainy months in 2014-15 were Jan-Mar. Snowfall through December in 2014-15 was 92% in all 3 groupings.

2011-12 also had a warm March with a few premature terrain closings but this year was on another level.
https://bestsnow.net/033126.htm
https://bestsnow.net/033112.htm

 

[kingslug]

The thing is...we ain't most people...

 

[jamesdeluxe]

Paywalled if you click directly. I turned off javascript and it only gave me a two sentence first paragraph.

Here's most of the piece. It's a gift article so no harm/no foul for posting the copy:


What a 5,000-mile-long marine heat wave means for summer in the U.S. It could worsen heat and humidity in the West this summer, and also boost the risks of Pacific hurricanes as well as wildfires in the region.

A massive ocean hot spot is stretching across a 5,000-mile swath of the Pacific — from Micronesia to the coastal waters of California. Across this zone, waters are as much as 6 to 8 degrees above average.

And it has the attention of climate scientists, who say it could boost temperatures, humidity and the threat for tropical storms in the West during the months ahead. Climate scientist Daniel Swain described this increasingly extreme marine heat wave as an “exceptional event” that’s breaking records.

The unusual ocean anomaly — the largest on the planet — could expand and intensify to cover the entire Pacific coast of North America by late summer, he wrote.

The development of this ocean hot spot, which is linked to a forming El Niño, also follows record warmth and a historic lack of snow in parts of the West earlier this year. Such conditions could worsen as the warm waters influence weather patterns in the coming months.

This marine heat wave is expected to be a key driver of conditions this spring and summer and it “could yield a summer quite different in California and the Southwest than we’ve seen in quite some time,” Swain said.

Its influence will vary — and it won’t immediately bring wall-to-wall heat and humidity to the region. Over the coming weeks, the West will experience unsettled conditions and variable temperatures. That’s due to an enhancement in the subtropical jet stream — partly because of the marine heat wave. This will bring some beneficial moisture to the parched Intermountain West.

But these milder effects won’t last.

As summer approaches, the marine heat wave will probably contribute to elevated overnight temperatures, leading to reduced relief from hot daytime conditions.

There’s also increased potential for uncomfortable humidity levels — something that is unusual in the West. Warmer ocean waters increase evaporation, which can raise atmospheric moisture levels, especially along the coast.

The marine heat wave and a developing El Niño are expected to increase the level of moisture availability, probably leading to more summer humidity and thunderstorms in the West. (Ben Noll/the Washington Post; ECMWF)
Then, later in summer, the marine heat wave and a forming El Niño could join forces to boost monsoonal thunderstorm activity across the West. This could enhance fire risks in the region — as dry lightning strikes can spark wildfires.

According to the National Interagency Fire Center, there’s above-average wildfire risk across several Western states during June and July.

The marine heat wave could also seriously boost the odds of an active eastern Pacific hurricane season — extending westward toward Hawaii. It will also raise the chances for the remnants of a tropical storm reaching California, which could spread moisture far and wide across the West — like Hurricane Hilary did in 2023.

Dillon Amaya, a climate scientist researching marine heat waves with NOAA, said that oceanic impacts may occur in places such as Hawaii as well as Southern and Baja California. “In Southern California, we are concerned about fish migration, kelp forest degradation, whale entanglements, harmful algal blooms and sea bird mortality,” Amaya said.

However, Amaya said that in the open ocean, migrating fish can “get out of the way” of the marine heat wave.

In its positive phase, the PMM is marked by warmer than average seas that stretch southwest-to-northeast across the Pacific for thousands of miles.

It typically develops from winter into spring through a series of atmospheric patterns that cause winds to weaken, which reduce evaporation and cause ocean warming. Once warm water from the PMM nears the equator, it can help feed a growing El Niño, with Amaya describing it as a precursor to that climate pattern, which can have much wider, global impacts.

 

[Tony Crocker]

An strong El Niño for the upcoming season is being massively hyped even though current readings are neutral.

Once warm water from the PMM nears the equator, it can help feed a growing El Niño

This may be part of the reason for the forecast of strong El Niño. Nonetheless the El Niño/La Niña eastern Pacific temperature anomaly usually stabilizes by July/August. That's the reason it's a useful predictor for the upcoming northern winter.

Larry Schick and I were discussing this situation yesterday. I mentioned that I had read that El Niño enhances the Southwest summer monsoon. He said the data is so volatile we can't really draw that conclusion yet. At any rate a strong Southwest summer monsoon would be very desirable this year in view of the extremely meager snowpack of the entire Colorado River basin. Fortunately the reservoirs in California and the Pacific Northwest are in good shape.

 

[tseeb]

Palisade Tahoe again expects to be open into May after receiving 81" of snow in April.
From https://www.sfgate.com/renotahoe/article/palisades-tahoe-season-snow-22223171.php
"The Wednesday update is the second time the resort has changed its closing date as it deals with a tough winter snow season. The ski area announced last month that its original May 25 closing date had to be moved up to “late April” due to a lack of snow."

Some video from the Palisades earlier this week:

View this content on Instagram

View this content on Instagram

There are a few short (one skier dropping) videos and some photos at this link.

View this content on Instagram

View this content on Instagram

 

[Sbooker]

US and Canada Season Recap from OpenSnow.

Meanwhile I have a preliminary comparison to the infamous 1976-77 season:

Nov.-Dec. Percent Normal​

California​

Pacific Northwest​

Interior Canada​

U.S. Northern Rockies​

Utah​

Northern & Central Colorado​

Southern & Western Colorado​

Northeast​

US West​

West​

All​

76-77​

29%​

13%​

88%​

39%​

15%​

46%​

38%​

142%​

30%​

38%​

51%​

80-81​

31%​

68%​

140%​

71%​

44%​

44%​

48%​

124%​

51%​

64%​

71%​

86-87​

32%​

80%​

84%​

69%​

43%​

66%​

94%​

79%​

64%​

67%​

68%​

11-12​

34%​

87%​

102%​

73%​

54%​

45%​

79%​

55%​

62%​

68%​

66%​

17-18​

26%​

93%​

106%​

109%​

43%​

64%​

33%​

97%​

61%​

68%​

71%​

23-24​

28%​

63%​

71%​

51%​

67%​

71%​

67%​

67%​

58%​

60%​

61%​

25-26​

71%​

59%​

133%​

71%​

37%​

47%​

50%​

135%​

56%​

67%​

75%​

Season Percent Normal​

California​

Pacific Northwest​

Interior Canada​

U.S. Northern Rockies​

Utah​

Northern & Central Colorado​

Southern & Western Colorado​

Northeast​

US West​

West​

All​

76-77​

46%​

48%​

74%​

66%​

56%​

69%​

52%​

131%​

56%​

58%​

68%​

80-81​

67%​

66%​

95%​

69%​

68%​

64%​

54%​

81%​

65%​

69%​

71%​

86-87​

65%​

82%​

87%​

65%​

67%​

70%​

87%​

98%​

73%​

75%​

78%​

91-92​

87%​

69%​

75%​

72%​

73%​

85%​

70%​

88%​

76%​

76%​

77%​

11-12​

73%​

122%​

124%​

97%​

68%​

59%​

74%​

67%​

82%​

88%​

86%​

14-15​

39%​

49%​

84%​

67%​

58%​

90%​

79%​

93%​

64%​

67%​

70%​

25-26*​

59%​

65%​

111%​

59%​

50%​

51%​

54%​

110%​

56%​

64%​

70%​

* = through March 31

While April is not done yet, you can see that overall this season was comparable to 1976-77 in the US West and worse in the Rockies. I will not have complete official numbers for 2025-26 until late May. April is going to improve some of them but I'm sure 2025-26 will hold its position as second worst, especially when you consider what's not in the above numbers: the March meltdown and excessive rain in many regions.

However, you can also see that for the key Nov/Dec start to the season, 1976-77 is in a class by itself.

2014-15 was much worse in the Pacific states and western Canada than 2025-26 but much better in the Rockies. But the dry or rainy months in 2014-15 were Jan-Mar. Snowfall through December in 2014-15 was 92% in all 3 groupings.

2011-12 also had a warm March with a few premature terrain closings but this year was on another level.
https://bestsnow.net/033126.htm
https://bestsnow.net/033112.htm

I had no idea the NE had a great season in 76-77. Interesting.
Do banner seasons in the west often amount to lean years in the NE?

 

[jasoncapecod]

I had no idea the NE had a great season in 76-77. Interesting.
Do banner season in the west often amount to lean years in the NE?

imo yes...usually a trough over the west and a ridge on the east coast

 

[Tony Crocker]

Do banner seasons in the west often amount to lean years in the NE?

Not necessarily. I addressed this question earlier in this thread.

There is a prevailing impression that western and eastern snowfall are negatively correlated. In the long term that is a myth, Northeast season correlations to western regions:

11%​	California
15%​	Pac Nwst
2%​	Can Rock
17%​	Nor Rock
16%​	Utah
23%​	N&C Colo
20%​	S&W Colo

Weak positives, too small to mean anything.

FYI the eastern season was great through February but mostly warm and rainy in March/April. So we can safely say that March 2026 had to be one of the worst ski months ever in the US, though it was decent in Canada: not so much heat and drought in the West and not so much rain in the East.

 

[berkshireskier]

Watched a video that was shot yesterday (April 25) from Sunshine Village. Looks like mid-Winter conditions there still. Plenty of coverage (no bare spots) and it looked to be cold. They are planning to stay open until May 18 and I would guess they could go longer if they wanted, especially up high.

 

[jimk]

Watched a video that was shot yesterday (April 25) from Sunshine Village. Looks like mid-Winter conditions there still. Plenty of coverage (no bare spots) and it looked to be cold. They are planning to stay open until May 18 and I would guess they could go longer if they wanted, especially up high.

Have friends up there recently at Sunshine and Louise, they say it's been spring mix, firm some days, good spring skiing others. But yes, they have plenty of snowpack still.

First hand report From two days ago: "Current skiing up here is very meh, but not a bad place to be for meh skiing. Very heavy and sticky spring snow for first four days, temps in mid to upper 40’s. We weren’t real successful in timing for corn - seemed to have been a very narrow window. Cold front came through, with only 2-3 inches of new snow, so dust on crust. Yesterday at Sunshine was marginal by Vermont standards. Off piste was brutal on the legs, and even the groomers were iffy. Cold weather with no new snow means same conditions for foreseeable future. Same weather pattern up in Marmot."

 

[ChrisC]

Interesting take on ski conditions

View this content on Instagram

View this content on Instagram

 

[EMSC]

Brighton and Snowbird have announced that Sunday, May 10 will be the end of their 2025-26 season.

Not a surprise for this horrid season.

Colorado will be closed for skiing after this Sunday May 3... Currently only Copper and Abasin are open. Abasin will be closing at least a month earlier than normal/plan.

 

[ChrisC]

Abasin will be closing at least a month earlier than normal/plan.

Did A-Basin even get close to 95-100% operational capacity this season? Like any of the North Pole hikes, Gullies, etc?

Telluride had a one-month run from mid-Feb to early/mid-March that was semi-decent.

 

[ChrisC]

Brighton and Snowbird have announced that Sunday, May 10 will be the end of their 2025-26 season.

If this is as bad as it gets in Big Cottonwood and Little Cottonwood Canyons (once every 10 years or so), it's still among the best, if not the best, in the Western United States.

I don't know how well Jackson Hole and Grand Targhee skied during mid-winter, but they might have provided some competition at times.

 

[berkshireskier]

I know that Targhee is now closed for the season, but it looks like they still have pretty decent coverage right down to their base. They did pick up quite a bit of snow this past week and it looks like there are a fair number of people still skinning up and skiing down. JH is toast down at the base but still decent coverage high up.

 

[EMSC]

Did A-Basin even get close to 95-100% operational capacity this season? Like any of the North Pole hikes, Gullies, etc?

ABasin had a season to forget. To my knowledge not even lower East Wall opened. They barely got Zuma bowl open for a few weeks in March before it melted back out. Pali terrain was open and I heard was even decent for a month+ of the season. But no North Pole, no Gullies and not even the steepest parts of Zuma (that I'm aware of, I don't track it too closely but enough that if anything did open it was for a literal handful of days, definitely not weeks).

 

[Tony Crocker]

This season deserves close analysis vs. past bad seasons. I've started with the most notorious state, Colorado. First, the Front Range. For each area I show monthly snowfall and maximum base depth where available. The second table shows percent of terrain open, which I generally have only for the past 20 years.

Winter Park:

	Nov.​	Dec.​	Jan.​	Feb.​	Mar.​	Apr.​			Max Base​
76-77​	25.00​	25.00​	44.50​	39.50​	84.50​	43.50​	262.00​
80-81​	49.00​	25.00​	40.00​	37.00​	70.00​	25.00​	246.00​
86-87​	56.50​	29.00​	53.50​	33.00​	53.50​	18.50​	244.00​
01-02​	49.70​	60.50​	67.70​	35.70​	27.10​	19.80​	260.50​
11-12​	27.00​	15.50​	47.50​	53.30​	18.30​	21.00​	182.60​		64.00​
25-26*​	19.00​	42.00​	43.00​	26.00​	35.00​	25.00​	190.00​		51.00​
	15-Dec​	31-Dec​	15-Jan​	31-Jan​	14-Feb​	28-Feb​	15-Mar​	31-Mar​
01-02​	50%​	85%​	90%​	90%​	90%​	90%​	90%​	75%​
09-10​	27%​	43%​	83%​	85%​	88%​	92%​	92%​	92%​
11-12​	11%​	38%​	62%​	78%​	83%​	89%​	87%​	77%​
25-26​	13%​	21%​	44%​	69%​	70%​	77%​	85%​	14%​

The two recent seasons above are clearly the worst ones. I say 25-26 is the worst because of slower opening of terrain plus the late March collapse. As this exercise continues, readers will become more impressed by Winter Park's resilience in 1976-77 and 1980-81 vs. nearly all western areas.

Loveland:

	Nov.​	Dec.​	Jan.​	Feb.​	Mar.​	Apr.​			Max Base​
76-77​	16.00​	24.00​	34.00​	44.00​	36.00​	57.00​	211.00​
80-81​	23.50​	23.00​	20.00​	28.00​	69.00​	30.00​	193.50​
09-10​	13.00​	30.50​	41.75​	36.50​	55.00​	59.50​	236.25​
11-12​	34.00​	22.00​	52.00​	58.00​	9.00​	36.00​	211.00​		57.00​
25-26​	18.00​	31.00​	30.00​	31.00​	28.00​	22.00​	160.00​		46.00​
	15-Dec​	31-Dec​	15-Jan​	31-Jan​	14-Feb​	28-Feb​	15-Mar​	31-Mar​
09-10​	18%​	24%​	54%​	81%​	92%​	97%​	99%​	92%​
11-12​	17%​	20%​	22%​	45%​	50%​	68%​	69%​	60%​
25-26​	13%​	14%​	20%​	26%​	53%​	59%​	88%​	63%​	28%​

2025-26 looks worst both in snowfall and open terrain. 1980-81 had a slightly drier start but probably reached full operation in the snowy March.

A-Basin:

	Nov.​	Dec.​	Jan.​	Feb.​	Mar.​	Apr.​	May​			Max Base​
80-81​				24.50​	64.50​	26.50​	52.00​
01-02​	21.10​	28.50​	29.70​	32.10​	27.60​	13.00​	1.00​	153.00​
11-12​	22.00​	10.00​	40.00​	48.00​	12.00​	34.00​	18.00​	184.00​		54.00​
25-26​	18.00​	28.00​	32.00​	30.00​	21.00​	17.00​		146.00​		46.00​
	15-Dec​	31-Dec​	15-Jan​	31-Jan​	14-Feb​	28-Feb​	15-Mar​	31-Mar​
01-02​	0%​	24%​	44%​	67%​	70%​	75%​	78%​	90%​	75%​
11-12​	9%​	17%​	17%​	48%​	48%​	67%​	81%​	50%​	33%​
25-26​	5%​	6%​	12%​	20%​	34%​	46%​	73%​	10%​	9%​

The open terrain numbers (which EMSC knew in general) are clearly worst in 2025-26. Spring 1981 looks pretty good. There is no data from 1976-77, but all data available from other Front Range areas suggests that it was no worse than 1980-81.

Copper Mt.

	Nov.​	Dec.​	Jan.​	Feb.​	Mar.​	Apr.​			Max Base​
76-77​		17.50​	18.50​	31.00​	31.00​	42.50​
80-81​		18.50​	16.00​	24.50​	55.50​
11-12​	26.00​	12.00​	49.00​	53.00​	10.00​	18.00​	168.00​		63.00​
25-26​	14.00​	41.00​	31.00​	30.00​	25.00​	22.00​	163.00​		48.00​
	15-Dec​	31-Dec​	15-Jan​	31-Jan​	14-Feb​	28-Feb​	15-Mar​	31-Mar​
11-12​	21%​	31%​	38%​	61%​	67%​	81%​	92%​	80%​	57%​
25-26​	11%​	16%​	49%​	57%​	62%​	80%​	95%​	34%​	30%​

Here the data is less conclusive. 25-26 is similar to 11-12 mid-season but worse early and late. But look at Dec/Jan in 76-77 and 80-81 and we know the missing November didn't have much snow. In that pre-snowmaking era, Copper might be one of those places that did not open until February.

Vail

	Nov.​	Dec.​	Jan.​	Feb.​	Mar.​	Apr.​			Max Base​
76-77​			36.50​	32.00​	64.00​
80-81​		17.50​	15.50​	35.50​	65.30​
11-12​	38.00​	20.00​	58.00​	54.00​	25.00​	16.00​	211.00​		47.00​
17-18​	14.00​	26.50​	38.00​	48.50​	33.75​	54.75​	215.50​		82.00​
25-26​	6.00​	43.00​	37.00​	36.00​	25.00​	12.00​	159.00​		52.00​
	15-Dec​	31-Dec​	15-Jan​	31-Jan​	14-Feb​	28-Feb​	15-Mar​	31-Mar​
11-12​	27%​	29%​	30%​	84%​	97%​	98%​	98%​	48%​
17-18​	6%​	23%​	71%​	90%​	96%​	100%​	100%​	97%​
25-26​	17%​	25%​	34%​	34%​	53%​	58%​	68%​	12%​

2025-26 is clear cut the worst among the recent seasons. For the earlier ones we know the missing months are lean as at Copper, but in both cases the March snow probably salvaged the late season.

Part of why 2022-26 is consensus worst season in this region is that 1976-77 and 1980-81 were more severely dry at most US areas farther west.