Western North America Conditions 2025/26

[ChrisC]

I was speaking with my brother last night, and he said that even in Telluride (8750ft) at upper elevations (10-12k), it's been too warm to make snow effectively. Also, this California Storm arrived Pineapple-Express-like, with tropical moisture.

I am betting Christmas/New Year's is going to be awful all over the West Coast, and I would start looking at alternatives - especially if you want any steep terrain. They are starting at zero, likely on December 1st—practically a whole month behind—both snowmaking and snowfall-wise, across almost every region in the USA West.

The exception is Western Canada (Whistler, Revelstoke, Banff).

Sure, I would assume normal December snow, but that will not be enough for good/decent Holiday skiing. Assume Deer Valley's new terrain expansion will be pretty underwhelming.

I will be happy to 'eat crow' when there is a "December to Remember", but I am not optimistic. (And I will likely be in Colorado for some of the holidays).


Some select areas I track from OpenSnow. There is almost a monthly view now: 2 weeks forward and 2 weeks backward. This has to be one of the worst Novembers on record. I saw some % average NOAA? SnowPack, and they are all horrible. (I could see all the Epic/Ikon resorts in Canada potentially being busy - especially Whistler).

 

[takeahike46er]

The Whistler alpine is off to a decent start, but below the Roundhouse and Rendezvous, it’s a different story. Most of the precip has fallen as rain in recent weeks, and there’s no snow below 1500m.

Ops just shared their opening day plan and it’s not pretty. Blackcomb opens Friday with just 1 trail serviced by Jersey Cream. The lines are going to be insane! Normally, there are multiple lifts on both mountains open, but the Whistler opening has been delayed to next week.

All that said, the steep alpine terrain should be in good shape for the holiday season barring any major dry spells or washouts.

 

[MarzNC]

I'll be skiing Wolf Creek in the second week of December. Regardless of snow depth, my crew will have a good time.

As for the locations I'm following on OpenSnow, starting to check the Snowpack Trend for Big Sky and CB. Those are the two options for the trip that starts in late January. Bill may well be on him own at CB. Also watching Big Sky because the Ski Divas and another women's ski group is going there mid-season.

 

[Tony Crocker]

OpenSnow thinks Whistler has had 103 inches of snow. The bad news is that model is based upon mid-mountain elevation, and the purple color means there has been rain along with that snow. The good news is that there must be a ton of snow higher up in the alpine. Cams at the upper lodges suggest that coverage would be adequate on Emerald and Jersey Cream, but the post above indicates perhaps not yet.

I would pull the plug on that Wolf Creek trip unless this week's storm turns out to be much more than forecast (12 inches season to date, 13 inches forecast over the next 15 days). It started from ground zero this past weekend, which is very rare for mid-November. Don't be fooled if Wolf Creek opens half its terrain off this storm. They will open under extreme low tide conditions. You need a 3 foot base to consider going there, which to be fair in normal years they can reach by Thanksgiving.

Late January is on the early side for CB in normal years, so not a good plan for this year if you're considering committing air $$ any time soon.

I will be happy to 'eat crow' when there is a "December to Remember"

That was 2007. Here's my report from Nov. 30. But here's Dec. 31.

On other forums I was frequently criticized for putting out red flags in late November/early December that certain regions/ski areas were a lost cause until well into January.

So we have seen this movie before. The most common scenario when November season-to-date looks like this is that the historically snowsure areas (Targhee always leading that list) are usually decent by Christmas but that more average western destinations can't afford to be 3 weeks behind schedule.

The worst case scenario (1976, 1986, 2011) is what some meteorologists in 2017 called "Heartbreak Ridge" or Godzilla Ridge:" massive high pressure blocking all storms from most of the western U.S for multiple weeks. While overall precipitation has been below average, in most regions the issue is temperature. Even in bone dry Novembers you can usually make snow on WRODs above 9,000 feet at places like Mammoth and Telluride. That's what's unusual so far this year.

Stormy Novembers with high rain/snow line are quite common. November has the highest historical ratio of total water to total snow all along the Pacific states. So this is a rather normal start in the Northwest and western Canada, and with the long range storm tracks moving back up there, perhaps Christmas skiing might not be far off average in those regions.

There also quite few early seasons which start out with mostly rain at Tahoe but can be good at Mammoth. Mammoth got enough to open at the end of the recent storm but the rain/snow line was mostly above Main Lodge for the first 3 days of it.

The regions that are outlier dry so far are northern Utah and Colorado, pic from Hidden Peak 11/14.

Are these yet in pull-the-plug mode before January? Outside the historical high snowfall places (Utah Cottonwoods, Steamboat/Vail/Winter Park), I'd say probably. And as bad as it is right now, a wipeout Christmas like 1976-77 or 2011-12 is not off the table.

The current storm has moved from California into the Four Corners. So those places are not as dry as those in the paragraph above, but they still have a long way to go before they are worthwhile for destination skiers.

 

[ChrisC]

I had just seen some uninspiring photos:

Solitude

Crested Butte

Park City

 

[jasoncapecod]

Ski the east baby
Gonna be a big year

 

[Tony Crocker]

I had just seen some uninspiring photos:

Those two driest regions comprise a quarter of US skier visits including several of the most famous places, so it will be very newsworthy if the problems persist.

Ski the east baby
Gonna be a big year

Liz says she saw some forecast of a big Polar Vortex, which would yield that result. I don't see the OpenSnow guys mentioning that yet.

 

[takeahike46er]

Cams at the upper lodges suggest that coverage would be adequate on Emerald and Jersey Cream, but the post above indicates perhaps not yet.

I thought the same thing. I didn’t realize how quickly snow depths dropped off until I started reading some concerning trips reports from the Whistler backcountry last week.

The on mountain weather stations make it pretty clear. Pig Alley at 1650m is reporting 71cm (28”)—okay for opening day but not great. However, Catskinner at 1550m only has 15cm (6”). Some of that difference can be attributed to the Whistler site receiving more snowfall, but much of it in this case is due to elevation/temperature. The freezing levels had been hovering around the Roundhouse level for the past couple weeks.

Ski the east baby
Gonna be a big year

Hell no. I’m never going back.

 

[takeahike46er]

Looks like interior BC isn’t faring much better. Sun Peaks pushed their opening day to next week. There’s nothing more than a dusting in the video they posted today.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Here in California the silver lining to the past week's weather is that we are drenched so fire season is done. L.A is over 4 inches rain for October/November and our hills are as green as typical mid-winter.

Sun Peaks pushed their opening day to next week.

That's a cold mountain, another sign of the temperature issue. I assume November snowmaking is very reliable there, as Sun Peaks often opens for race training before it opens to the public.

 

[MarzNC]

I would pull the plug on that Wolf Creek trip unless this week's storm turns out to be much more than forecast (12 inches season to date, 13 inches forecast over the next 15 days). It started from ground zero this past weekend, which is very rare for mid-November. Don't be fooled if Wolf Creek opens half its terrain off this storm. They will open under extreme low tide conditions. You need a 3 foot base to consider going there, which to be fair in normal years they can reach by Thanksgiving.

My friends and I do not think the same way you do. There is more than one reason for a small group of retired friends from multiple states to get together to ski Wolf Creek during early season.

Probably makes a difference that four of us didn't start to ski black terrain confidently at mountains such as Alta, Taos, or Big Sky until after age 60 and we are around 70 at this point. Four of us live at sea level well east of the Mississippi. Bill has been skiing advanced/expert terrain since high school (Ajax bumps were his favorite) but he's been taking it easier after age 70. His drive is from Albuquerque.

This crew has had a very good time for the past four years at Wolf Creek in December. WCSA has been 100% open by Dec. 11, which is in the middle of our stay. I went to JH/GT and Alta with one of the crew about the same time in December 2020. Bill did a separate trip a week later with another of our ski buddies and checked out Steamboat, Winter Park, and finished at JH/GT. Won't bother with that type of destination resort again before mid-January.

One trip there was only about 25 inches at mid-mountain when we arrived for the first ski day at WCSA. Wasn't enough snow to put up some of the trail signs. We still skied a bit in mellow glades that week. There was a deep powder storm halfway through the trip. For us, it's a good way to start the season. Both from the standpoint of getting back on skis and altitude adjustment.

Another factor is that there is a PSIA Level 3 instructor I really like working with. He has over 25 years experience, mostly at Vail Mountain and Crested Butte. He moved and started teaching at Wolf Creek for family reasons several years ago. I'm happy to set up a semi-private Full Day lesson at an independent resort like Wolf Creek. Not cheap but less than destination resorts charge these days. Since my friends join in for all or part of the lesson, that makes it even better. The lessons have been more about skiing powder or bumps or carving depending on snow conditions.

I've done Ski Weeks at Taos in low snow conditions in the last decade. Had no regrets making those trips. Essentially added to my knowledge of how to practice fundamentals on groomers that make skiing challenging off-piste terrain less intimidating and more fun.

Fun is the goal. For me and my travel buddies, that doesn't require that much off-piste terrain during early season. Wolf Creek works out well for many reasons.

 

[EMSC]

Even Colorado is not good. Very limited terrain open, though a lot of resorts are open with 1-4 trails. Within Colo the temps have been odd this fall too. This morning Copper was 18F but Eldora was 30F despite similar base elevations. So Copper has been pounding out snowmaking lately while Eldora cannot; for one example.

Heck I went for yet another sunny bike ride with temps in the mid 60s down here yesterday on the front range (roughly 15F too high). The better news is a cooler storm tomorrow/Friday with temps only going up a couple degrees afterwards and currently a forecast for below normal temps during turkey week.

A long way to get natural snow skiing going, but at least snowmaking should add terrain ahead of the busy holiday weekend.

Here's the current state of the western snowpack... too bad Arizona Snowbowl is not open: 31" past 3 days.

 

[Tony Crocker]

too bad Arizona Snowbowl is not open: 31" past 3 days.

Arizona Snowbowl is opening Friday.

WCSA has been 100% open by Dec. 11, which is in the middle of our stay.

History says why that plan is a reasonable one.

Year​	Opening​	Thanksgiving​	​	Mid December​		Christmas Week
88​	19-Nov​	58​	100%​	44​	100%​	80​	100%​
90​	10-Nov​	​	%​	52​	100%​	70​	100%​
92​	13-Nov​	30​	100%​	48​	100%​	60​	100%​
93​	17-Nov​	42​	95%​	42​	100%​	56​	100%​
94​	4-Nov​	57​	100%​	68​	100%​	65​	100%​
95​	13-Nov​	9​	5%​	​	%​	​	%​
96​	1-Nov​	72​	100%​	70​	100%​	75​	100%​
97​	14-Nov​	55​	100%​	52​	100%​	50​	100%​
98​	30-Oct​	55​	100%​	65​	100%​	69​	100%​
99​	3-Dec​	8​	0%​	9​	3%​	10​	8%​
0​	28-Oct​	44​	100%​	66​	100%​	56​	100%​
1​	23-Nov​	11​	5%​	54​	100%​	39​	100%​
2​	31-Oct​	35​	100%​	40​	100%​	64​	100%​
3​	​	57​	100%​	60​	100%​	80​	100%​
4​	Oct​	60​	100%​	58​	100%​	56​	100%​
5​	​	14​	40%​	32​	100%​	30​	100%​
6​	Oct​	55​	100%​	53​	100%​	64​	100%​
7​	​	11​	10%​	109​	100%​	102​	100%​
8​	​	13​	30%​	44​	100%​	101​	100%​
9​	31-Oct​	28​	100%​	75​	100%​	66​	100%​
10​	​	36​	100%​	24​	100%​	88​	100%​
11​	Oct​	40​	100%​	63​	100%​	62​	100%​
12​	​	15​	31%​	47​	88%​	41​	100%​
13​	​	59​	100%​	68​	100%​	62​	100%​
14​	8-Nov​	20.5​	70%​	28​	70%​	54.5​	90%​
15​	​	50​	100%​	74​	100%​	95​	100%​
16​	24-Nov​	24​	50%​	38​	100%​	83.5​	100%​
17​	17-Nov​	13​	60%​	13​	60%​	19​	90%​
18​	13-Oct​	31.5​	90%​	35​	100%​	43​	100%​
19​	1-Nov​	34​	100%​	55.5​	100%​	83.5​	100%​
20​	30-Oct​	53.5​	98%​	68​	100%​	60.5​	100%​
21​	16-Oct​	14​	25%​	57​	100%​	98​	100%​
22​	4-Nov​	26.5​	90%​	49​	100%​	47.5​	100%​
23​	3-Nov​	21​	20%​	29​	100%​	31​	100%​
24​	22-Oct​	45.5​	100%​	39​	100%​	44​	​
Ave​	6-Nov​	35.2​	74%​	50.8​	95%​	61.9​	97%​
	Median	34.5 ​	100%​	52.0 ​	100%​	62.0 ​	100%​
	75th %ile​	54.6 ​	100%​	64.5 ​	100%​	78.8 ​	100%​
	25th %ile​	16.4 ​	43%​	39.3 ​	100%​	48.1 ​	100%​

The last bad start was in 2017-18. Bolded base depth and percent open numbers above indicate that Wolf Creek will claim large amounts of terrain open on an extremely marginal base.

Today's report:

Wolf Creek Ski Area is opening Saturday, November 22nd for the 2025-2026 ski season with 7-day-a-week operations!
~ Wolf Creek received 9 inches of natural snowfall from the latest storm! Snowmaking crews continue to work hard to make manmade snow and are continuing to blow snow while temperatures are cold. The grooming and lift departments are also working hard to get more terrain open!

Midway Snow Depth 5"

There's no way Thanksgiving is going to be worth skiing there. Dec. 11 is far enough out of the reliable weather forecasting window to not stick a fork in it right now, but the odds are not in your favor.

 

[MarzNC]

Alta Lift Co. pushed back the opening date to Dec. 5: "Based on the extended forecast and lack of favorable snowmaking temperatures, Opening Day has moved to Friday, December 5th—conditions permitting." That's scrambled Alta Lodge and Alta Ski School, which has a Women's Clinic scheduled for early December. First lesson day is supposed to be Dec. 4.

Snowbird has advanced tickets available online for Nov. 27 . . . for $175, 10% off! Perhaps that's to discourage people unaware of the situation who don't have a pass of some sort to consider a last minute Thanksgiving ski trip.

Solitude is sticking with Nov. 27 according to their homepage.

Brighton never announces an opening date more than a few days before it actually happens.

Park City had Nov. 21 as the target date back in August. Homepage now says "We will share a new target opening date once we are confident we can deliver guests the quality opening experience they expect from Park City Mountain" in the usual top right corner box for Epic resorts.

Deer Valley had Dec. 1 as the target a few months ago. Now in TBD mode.

 

[ChrisC]

So, Thanksgiving skiing out west is a couple of snowmaking runs in Colorado? And Mammoth?

There will not be good holiday skiing anywhere in the West. All the ski resorts will have 3 weeks from delayed openings (December) to reach a semi-functional ski footprint, preventing holiday chaos, refunds and irate customers.

At least the Colorado ski resorts have sound snowmaking systems, cold temps, and low humidity. Maybe Sun Valley, Mammoth. Park City's snowmaking does not live up to its status as the largest ski resort in the USA; it should be as bad as last Christmas, minus striking workers. See what Deer Valley installed.

Even Canada is not great outside of Banff; the storms have been too warm. Fernie, Kicking Horse, Revelstoke, Red Mt - even Sun Peaks - have no snow below mid-mountains.

Desperately need a weather pattern change!


Sun Peaks does not hide it! They usually remain cold enough for base-area accumulation.

 

[MarzNC]

See what Deer Valley installed.

Starting on Nov. 25, DV will have weather conditions good for snowmaking. Not enough time for a Dec. 1 opening, but perhaps DV could open by Dec. 8. I would guess that the goal is to have at least one top-to-bottom run to each base. With as many new trails open as practical to get the kinks out before the holiday period. Now there can be a competition for first-to-open between PC and DV.

In the southeast, 36-48 hours of continuous snowmaking is enough to open core green/blue groomers with side-to-side coverage. Once open, those core trails can end up with a base over 3-5 feet in order to withstand warm periods before the end of February. All the resorts have 100% snowmaking coverage and don't rely on natural snowfall at anytime during the winter. However, better to have a few days for snow whales to drain before the snowcats move and/or groom the pile out. May not need that process as much with the lower humidity in Utah.

Presumably not having big snowstorms in October and November is making it easier for DV to finish up construction projects before the resort opens for winter guests. Something must be behind schedule.

For Deer Valley from OpenSnow on November 19, 2025:

 

[Tony Crocker]

That wet bulb chart reinforces ChrisC's point. Snowmaking won't even get started at PC/DV until Nov. 24.

At least the Colorado ski resorts have sound snowmaking systems, cold temps, and low humidity.

They do, but the snowmaking generally covers less than 1/4 of terrain. Here's what Utah and Colorado looked like mid-December 2017, most areas 10-15% open. There was 2+ feet of snow around Christmas and most areas were 1/3 to 1/2 open at New Year's.

 

[Tony Crocker]

I have no FOMO about scheduling our non-ski vacation to the Galapagos starting next Monday. I may have problems getting out my first detail progress report Dec. 1 as we will be on a small expedition cruise ship.

I put some details of Mammoth's opening into that thread.

 

[EMSC]

I have no FOMO about scheduling our non-ski vacation to the Galapagos starting next Monday.

I also have no FOMO for booking to FL for next week, leaving home on Sat. Hasn't even been cold enough in Colorado yet for me to really need warm air, but some relaxed golf and beach time will be much better than trying to join crowds on a tiny handful of groomers. Hopefully it'll be cold enough that a better proportion of snowmaking trails will finally be open when I return.

Copper mtn looks kinda like winter (but not really).
Main Vein in center village for the public:

Base of Super B where top to bottom is finally ready for the World Cup races next week: Mens SG/GS, Thur/Fri and then Womens GS/SL Sat/Sun

 

[jamesdeluxe]

I don't recall ever seeing messaging like this from the most reliable early-season ski area on the continent. Still, it's only November 20; I'm sure they'll be 100% open within a few weeks.