Western Weather 2010-14

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not the best picture, but me atop mammoth mtn yesterday morning, gettin ready to ride down.

photo.jpg
 
Per the National Weather Service in SLC Utah

Thursday...Breezy. Partly cloudy with numerous snow showers in the morning...then mostly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms and snow showers in the afternoon. Cooler. Accumulations possible. Highs around 50. West winds 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.
 
mbaydala":1ug1yjcq said:
Per the National Weather Service in SLC Utah

Thursday...Breezy. Partly cloudy with numerous snow showers in the morning...then mostly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms and snow showers in the afternoon. Cooler. Accumulations possible. Highs around 50. West winds 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.
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That's above 8000', right?
 
For sure, probably above 9000 even. To be quite honest, I don't see all that much moisture with this system. Not really sure what the NWS is seeing here. IMO at the moment it looks like only a few snow showers. If anyone was to see some accumulating snows it would probably be up around the Tetons. Though they are the professionals, so I guess there is a chance.
 
More snow in the Wasatch today -- looks like 9000' or even slightly higher was about right:

alta_100919.jpg


snowbird_20100910a.jpg


snowbird_20100910b.jpg
 
So it looks like it will start to feel a bit more like fall next week. The National Weather Service is calling for a Major Pattern Change around Monday of next week. I think that is inevitable and do I think there will be some snow at elevation next week in the Wasatch but nothing like we had a year ago when we were skiing up at Alta. Right now it looks like the majority of the precipitation will be out over the West Desert and just west of the Salt Lake all the way across Nevada into possibly Tahoe. As always with the weather, things can change but that's what it looks like right now.

Here is what the GFS is spitting out for a 2.5 day precipitation total (Tuesday - Thursday)
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p60_144l.gif


Here is what the NWS has to say:

BIG CHANGES ARE IN STORE BEGINNING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN MONDAY
WILL SETTLE INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA EARLY TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL SURGE EAST THROUGH WESTERN UTAH MONDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT RAIN....WITH SOME SNOW AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE RAIN AND
SNOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF UTAH.
PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS SLIGHTLY
WEST TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER NEXT WEEK. THE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE REPLACED BY BELOW
NORMAL READINGS OVER MUCH OF THE STATE MONDAY...WITH EVEN COOLER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THURSDAY.
 
A change for the west could be on they way as early as this weekend. Looks like two storms could put down some snow in the Wasatch and points north. Its been about 4 -5 days that the GFS has been showing these storms, so now I'm beginning to take them a bit more seriously. The first storm over the weekend doesn't look as strong or have a whole lot of cold air to work with but the second storm on and around the 26 - 27 could have quite a bit more cold air and more moisture to work with. It would be nice to see things whiten up around here.

Looks like the climate prediction center has picked up on this as well. Check out http://www.weather.gov/predictions.php check out the 6-10 and 10-14 day precipitation outlooks.
 
From the national weather service this morning:

Given the current model solutions...the first real snowstorm of the year for the northern mountains is possible early next week. Confidence in any particular solution at this time is low...but the general trend of much cooler temperatures and a moister pattern for next week have been consistent for the past several days in both models.
 
The NSW SLC has been issuing Special Weather Statements regarding this weekend's two systems for several days now, with each one getting more specific. This morning's edition is starting to confirm that this is likely to be the start of our base this season.

The National Weather Service":2pysgkvv said:
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
447 AM MDT FRI OCT 22 2010

UTZ001>016-019>021-517-518-WYZ021-222200-
CACHE VALLEY/UTAH PORTION-NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH-WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-
WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-WASATCH PLATEAU/BOOK CLIFFS-
WESTERN UINTA BASIN-CASTLE COUNTRY-SAN RAFAEL SWELL-
SANPETE/SEVIER VALLEYS-WEST CENTRAL UTAH-SOUTHWEST UTAH-
UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK-SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-
GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA/LAKE POWELL-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST WYOMING-
447 AM MDT FRI OCT 22 2010

...A MUCH COLDER AND WETTER PATTERN BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND...

THE MILD FALL WEATHER OF LATE WILL BECOME MORE WINTER-LIKE THIS
WEEKEND. THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...PARTICULARLY DEER HUNTERS OUT IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR COLD AND WET WINTER-LIKE
CONDITIONS. SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING ALONG THE MIRROR LAKE HIGHWAY...MONTE
CRISTO AREA...GUARDSMAN PASS AND SKYLINE DRIVE.

THIS FIRST SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH
THE WASATCH FRONT MID-DAY SATURDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 8000 FEET
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME 4 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN UTAH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH. SOUTHERN UTAH WILL ALSO
EXPERIENCE COOLER TEMPERATURES...BUT SHOULD SEE SUBSTANTIALLY
LESS PRECIPITATION.

A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...BEFORE A WARM FRONT CROSSES NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH. THIS FRONT WILL RAISE SNOW LEVELS
ABOVE 10000 FEET DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...ALLOWING SNOW TO CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN ACROSS ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS AND RIDGELINES.
THIS RAIN ON TOP OF SNOW WILL MAKE BACKCOUNTRY TRAVEL VERY
DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE ALONG DIRT ROADS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN UTAH...WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH THE WASATCH
FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
STATE MONDAY. VALLEY RAIN AND HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. SNOW LEVELS
BEHIND THE FRONT LOOK TO FALL TO THE UPPER BENCHES ALONG THE
WASATCH FRONT MONDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH...WITH
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF A FOOT POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE THE COLDEST SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
MOUNTAIN SNOW...WITH RAIN MIXING WITH AND POSSIBLY CHANGING OVER TO
ALL SNOW IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN
10 AND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL FINALLY RETURN TO THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW
SKIES TO CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN UTAH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THESE CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A HARD FREEZE ACROSS MOST
VALLEYS...EXCLUDING UTAHS DIXIE AND THE LAKE POWELL AREA. THE
GROWING SEASON WILL LIKELY END IN THE REMAINING LOCATIONS THAT
HAVE NOT EXPERIENCED AN HARD FREEZE YET THIS FALL SEASON.
Click to expand...
 
Here's Snowbird's photo of the day, clearing the first phase of the 20-30" predicted by Monday:

1716.jpg
 
The NWS has now issued a Winter Storm Warning for Utah copied below. And check out these radar echoes that have been marching eastward all morning!:

nwsradar_101025.jpg


The National Weather Service in Salt Lake City":1c089ndw said:
UTZ008-241800-
/O.UPG.KSLC.WS.A.0008.101025T0000Z-101027T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KSLC.WS.W.0011.101025T0000Z-101027T1200Z/
WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALTA...BRIGHTON
511 AM MDT SUN OCT 24 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
MDT WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SALT LAKE CITY HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER
STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* AFFECTED AREA: THE WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AN ACCUMULATION
OF 20 TO 30 INCHES IS FORECAST...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
AREAS FAVORED BY NORTHWEST FLOW.

* TIMING: VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOWS AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. A PASSING COLD FRONT LATE THIS
EVENING WILL RAPIDLY LOWER SNOW LEVELS AND PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
HEAVY SNOWFALL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. PERIODS OF
SNOW WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT MONDAY...THEN INTENSIFY ONCE AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT AS A SECOND WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY...THEN CONCENTRATE ON AREAS
DOWNWIND FROM THE GREAT SALT LAKE TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* SNOW LEVELS: SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 10000 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP RAPIDLY BELOW 6000 FEET
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

* WINDS: SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH INCREASE TO 30 TO 40
MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND DECREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS: THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ACROSS IN THE WASATCH
RANGE...PARTICULARLY DEER HUNTERS OUT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR COLD...WET...AND VERY WINDY WINTER
CONDITIONS. SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS A MIXTURE OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG
WINDS IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. DRIVING CONDITIONS MAY BE
HAZARDOUS. USE CAUTION. BE PREPARED FOR SUDDEN RESTRICTIONS IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. KEEP A WINTER STORM SURVIVAL KIT
IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

FOR WINTER ROAD CONDITIONS FROM THE UTAH DEPARTMENT OF
TRANSPORTATION VISIT...HTTP://WWW.COMMUTERLINK.UTAH.GOV OR DIAL
511.
Click to expand...
 
The National Weather Service in Oregon has posted a Winter Storm Warning for elevations above 4,000 feet beginning at 3 p.m. today. They're expecting 12-24 inches on Mt. Hood. One's been posted for the Cascades of Washington as well. Winter Storm Watch for the Inland PNW around the OR/WY/ID border.
 
Snowing now in Bend (elevation: 3590'). We're surely adding to a growing base here in the Cascades. Reputable sources estimate 14" at the base of Mt Bachelor and 21"+ at mid-mountain according to the ski area folks. It's been snowing continuously since noon on Saturday.

Oooh La La Nina!

2010-10-25130929-1.jpg


File photo, date unknown. Another snowy day somewhere near Mt Bachelor.

2010-10-25130835.jpg


Sally Russell snapping picks of flakes. Lots of those today!
 
I'm contemplating officially banning Crocker from using the :stir: emoticon. :-k
 
But will Mt. Bachelor's opening date be advanced as Mammoth has done in this situation?
Click to expand...
From Mt Bachelor's Facebook page today:

"Our tentative opening date has been set for Nov 19. We will see what the next few days and the forecast looks like before changing that. Stand by..."
and
"Season Pass office opens in the Old Mill (next to Allyson's Kitchen, across from REI) on Nov 2. It is open everyday thru Nov 17."

Next weekend if we're lucky, I'm reading.

Now for the weather:

West Village Depth (6300') 27"
West Village Temperature 25° F
Mid Mountain Depth (7300') 34"
Pine Marten Temperature 23° F
Summit Temperature 19° F

Snowfall
Last Updated Tuesday, October 26, 2010 10:28 AM
12 Hour Snowfall 0"
24 Hour Snowfall 13"
72 Hour Snowfall 27"
Season Total Snowfall 0" (Obviously it doesn't snow before you open, right?)
 
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