Western Weather 2017-18 and Later
- Thread starter Admin
- Start date
No question 2011-12 was the worst Utah early season of the past 30 years.
November 2011 had 58.5 inches snow at Alta Collins, but only 2.5 inches Dec. 1-11 and 20 inches for the entire month of December.
So far November 2017 has had 22.5 inches and there will be no more than 6 inches the rest of the month per OpenSnow. An average Dec. 1-13 would be 40 inches, which would put Alta on Dec. 13 in a similar position as in 2011. Given Snowbird's rugged terrain, odds are not great for adequate coverage there. Alta skis quite well on a 3-foot base. Alta shows its day-by-day snowfall for the season here: https://www.alta.com/conditions/weather ... ll-history
Alternate plans? Targhee is the obvious choice, 5 hours drive north, so no worry on your flight to SLC. You can wait on the car rental if you don't have one. If you're not committed to lodging yet, don't. It's never a problem scoring last minute lodging in mid-December.
Presumably admin or others in his posse will inform us of the reality in LCC as the season progresses. If admin is still camping in southern Utah on the weekends, that will be a good clue what to do!
November 2011 had 58.5 inches snow at Alta Collins, but only 2.5 inches Dec. 1-11 and 20 inches for the entire month of December.
So far November 2017 has had 22.5 inches and there will be no more than 6 inches the rest of the month per OpenSnow. An average Dec. 1-13 would be 40 inches, which would put Alta on Dec. 13 in a similar position as in 2011. Given Snowbird's rugged terrain, odds are not great for adequate coverage there. Alta skis quite well on a 3-foot base. Alta shows its day-by-day snowfall for the season here: https://www.alta.com/conditions/weather ... ll-history
Alternate plans? Targhee is the obvious choice, 5 hours drive north, so no worry on your flight to SLC. You can wait on the car rental if you don't have one. If you're not committed to lodging yet, don't. It's never a problem scoring last minute lodging in mid-December.
Presumably admin or others in his posse will inform us of the reality in LCC as the season progresses. If admin is still camping in southern Utah on the weekends, that will be a good clue what to do!
Marc_C
Active member
On the groomers, about a 20" compacted base. Obviously the trails with snowmaking will fare the best.kingslug":31dm9y9q said:
Natural cover trails need a bit more. For something rocky like Backside or Ballroom at Alta or the Cirque at Snowbird, 48" is the general heuristic.
Quote from Open Snow Utah: "Really, really, really bad trends in the models over the past 48 hours." Two weeks is of course beyond the reliability window, but all the models agree on the bad news right now.
I'd say both James and kingslug have fairly clear decisions to bail to Targhee at this point. Snowbird is a minefield with less than a 4-foot base, which is clearly not happening in the next 2 weeks. Even if it starts snowing when you arrive, the base will be too thin to open much immediately, particularly since snow stability will be horrible after the long dry spell.
As for the group of 48, I'd recommend trying to rain check that lodging reservation to April or next season. I'm sure it would be harder to move it to a prime winter month.
I'd say both James and kingslug have fairly clear decisions to bail to Targhee at this point. Snowbird is a minefield with less than a 4-foot base, which is clearly not happening in the next 2 weeks. Even if it starts snowing when you arrive, the base will be too thin to open much immediately, particularly since snow stability will be horrible after the long dry spell.
As for the group of 48, I'd recommend trying to rain check that lodging reservation to April or next season. I'm sure it would be harder to move it to a prime winter month.
Wish it was my decision to do so. As it is I think we are stuck as our group leader isn't very supportive of ideas. And I'm sure I'll get the usual.."we'll see what happens". I know what will happen. And Snowbird will reopen with a few manmade trails and stick you with the tickets. But i'll see what I can do
There is not a lot you can do staying at Snowbird. You have to suck it up, blow off that lodging cost and go somewhere else. That means Targhee for skiing or southern Utah for the long list of places admin has documented well on camping trips.
I'm biased against group trips but have been on some successful ones. Zermatt 2014 with Kingslug's group was a standout. In fairness Snowbird mid-December is not a terrible speculation. Anywhere in mid-December carries risk and Targhee and Whistler are the only places with better early season odds than LCC.
And I would send these weather forecasts to the trip leader anyway. Or have Jackie do it since she has been a trip leader herself. The more active plan would be to send those forecasts to everyone going on the trip to apply more collective pressure. This is costing people $ and vacation time. They should be pulling out all the stops to avoid this train wreck.
I'm biased against group trips but have been on some successful ones. Zermatt 2014 with Kingslug's group was a standout. In fairness Snowbird mid-December is not a terrible speculation. Anywhere in mid-December carries risk and Targhee and Whistler are the only places with better early season odds than LCC.
And I would send these weather forecasts to the trip leader anyway. Or have Jackie do it since she has been a trip leader herself. The more active plan would be to send those forecasts to everyone going on the trip to apply more collective pressure. This is costing people $ and vacation time. They should be pulling out all the stops to avoid this train wreck.
Marc_C
Active member
Also, make sure the trip leader knows that Snowbird opened for 2 days then closed indefinitely. Alta has pushed back their opening day twice now. Other Utah areas have TBD opening dates. Park City has one run open; Brighton around 6. There was some chatter of a pattern change in another 10 days or so, but that's died down since the start of the week.Tony Crocker":jaaqad3d said:
I've been skiing Big Sky all week in great early season conditions . With average temperatures snowmakers will expand down tp Thunder Wolf and the lower mt.Without new snow the upper mt. will ski firmer with more scree. I'm sure they would love to rebook a large group from Snowbird.
Here's prominent Utah meteorologist Jim Steenburgh's take on the current situation: http://wasatchweatherweenies.blogspot.c ... velop.html
When James and kinglsug arrive, there will probably be half as much snow as during James' visit during the same time frame in 2011-12 or mine at Christmas of 1986-87. Only 1976-77 was worse in mid-December.
I have to agree with MarcC that group trips in December are a bad idea.
1) In mid-season cutting a group deal may save some $$$. In the Thanksgiving to Christmas travel dead zone, anyone can get a good deal on an individual basis.
2) Flexibility is essential in December as is being demonstrated. James has that flexibility but a group of 48 does not.
The Diamond Dogs do this trip every year so maybe the group size has some negotiating leverage. Tell Snowbird you're not coming back next December if they are not willing to rain check this trip to April. Snowbird should not be afraid of showing some flexibility for a once in 25+ years outlier situation. In the long run they will have more loyal customers.
When James and kinglsug arrive, there will probably be half as much snow as during James' visit during the same time frame in 2011-12 or mine at Christmas of 1986-87. Only 1976-77 was worse in mid-December.
Hopefully doing something other than skiing if you stay in Utah. Admin can provide numerous suggestions.kingslug":2bqnfy1u said:
I have to agree with MarcC that group trips in December are a bad idea.
1) In mid-season cutting a group deal may save some $$$. In the Thanksgiving to Christmas travel dead zone, anyone can get a good deal on an individual basis.
2) Flexibility is essential in December as is being demonstrated. James has that flexibility but a group of 48 does not.
The Diamond Dogs do this trip every year so maybe the group size has some negotiating leverage. Tell Snowbird you're not coming back next December if they are not willing to rain check this trip to April. Snowbird should not be afraid of showing some flexibility for a once in 25+ years outlier situation. In the long run they will have more loyal customers.
Jackson would be an easy relocate for a group. There's tons of lodging there for the primary summer business, should be available on the cheap during your time frame.lono":2bqnfy1u said:
That's Park City. I'm sure Alta's appearance is not as extreme as that, but I'm also sure admin is in no hurry to document current conditions here.
jamesdeluxe
Administrator
A foot plus in today's storm, then high and dry for the foreseeable future -- bring yer skinny skis. I'm revving up the rental for WY.kingslug":1hitevsv said:
While "no group trips in December" is easy to say in hindsight; normally, the Cottonwoods by mid-month is a pretty safe bet, surpassed only by GT.