jasoncapecod
Well-known member
I bet that 9" of snow absorbed some rain...
Western Weather 2017-18 and Later
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Patrol site says 0.2 inches rain.
jamesdeluxe
Administrator
Funny, no mention of last season in that NY Times article!
But overall this November-December is very bad, worse than 10th percentile in snowfall of the past 52 years. Later today I'll have the details.
But overall this November-December is very bad, worse than 10th percentile in snowfall of the past 52 years. Later today I'll have the details.
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I feel for the international tourists that have spent big dollars to ski in North America.
Weather will be weather though.
The details are even worse than I expected from a week ago. During the holiday week Steamboat and Whistler were the only areas to get more than a foot of snow. Next most were Stevens Pass and Winter Park at 8 inches.
1) 1976-77 remains the outlier for worst early season. 38% of normal snowfall over the 7 western regions and 51% if you include the Northeast which was having a huge year at 142%.
2) 1980-81 Nov-Dec was 62% in the West and 71% overall. The Northeast at 124% and western Canada at 139% were excellent.
3) 1986-87 Nov-Dec. was 66% in the West and 68% overall. The Southwest was the best region at 92%.
4) 2011-12 Nov-Dec. was 67% in the West and 65% overall. Western Canada was the best region at 101%.
5) 2017-18 Nov-Dec. was 67% in the West and 70% overall. Western Canada was at 105% and the US Northern Rockies at 107%.
There are no other early seasons in the prior 51 years under 70% in the West overall.
In-season data is not as complete as it will be will be when I contact the areas directly next May, but I don't expect the results to change materially. I have Nov-Dec. 2023 at 57% in the West and 60% overall.
California is at 31%; 3 other seasons were under 30% and 6 more under 40%. This one is in the middle of the pack for that group in terms of open ski terrain. Mammoth and Kirkwood claim over half open by trail count, but I'm not buying that in terms of acreage based upon the 3 days Adam skied at Mammoth this week.
The Pacific Northwest is at 49%, 4th worst of the past 52 years (1976-77 was 13%). Whistler was 38% open a week ago, now 54% after 2 feet last week. That 54% is still the third lowest percent open of the past 28 years. Bachelor's 54% open is fifth lowest of 28 years and Crystal's 38% open is record low of 28 years.
Interior western Canada is at 69%, 5th worst of the past 52 years (2000-01 was 50%). Fernie's 58% open is third lowest of 25 years and and Big White's 66% open fifth worst. The Banff areas are about 3/4 open, but base depths are under 3 feet and they are historically aggressive about opening in low tide conditions.
The US. Northern Rockies are at 52%, second worst to 1976-77's 38%. Jackson's 47% open is third lowest of 25 years and Sun Valley's 20% second lowest. Schweitzer's 21% open and Big Sky's 41% open are record lows for the past 25 years.
Utah is the leading western region in North America at 72% (about 1/4 of seasons have been worse with 1976-77 an outlier 15%) but average snowfall over the past 3 weeks is less than a foot. Only Alta has a base over 4 feet. Park City is 40% open, though it's half or less open at New Year's in about 30% of seasons.
Northern and Central Colorado is at 62%, 6th worst of the past 52 years (3 worst years 1977, 1981 and 2012 were in 45% range). This is a typical subpar holiday for the region: Steamboat, Vail and Winter Park 75% open on 3 foot bases, other places half or less open on closer to 2 foot bases. Overall open terrain is around 20th percentile for New Year's.
The Southwest is at 67%, 7th worst of the past 52 years (3 worst years 1977, 2000 and 2018 were in 35% range). Most areas (Taos excepted at 39%) are a little over half open but very low tide with bases barely over 2 feet.
The Northeast was doing well up to mid-December when the northern Vermont areas were over half open. There has been a ton of rain over the past two weeks so season snowfall is at 74% now (about 1/4 of seasons have been worse with 1982-83 at 38%). Currently Jay's 15% open and Stowe's 28% open are second lowest of the past 21 years.
1) 1976-77 remains the outlier for worst early season. 38% of normal snowfall over the 7 western regions and 51% if you include the Northeast which was having a huge year at 142%.
2) 1980-81 Nov-Dec was 62% in the West and 71% overall. The Northeast at 124% and western Canada at 139% were excellent.
3) 1986-87 Nov-Dec. was 66% in the West and 68% overall. The Southwest was the best region at 92%.
4) 2011-12 Nov-Dec. was 67% in the West and 65% overall. Western Canada was the best region at 101%.
5) 2017-18 Nov-Dec. was 67% in the West and 70% overall. Western Canada was at 105% and the US Northern Rockies at 107%.
There are no other early seasons in the prior 51 years under 70% in the West overall.
In-season data is not as complete as it will be will be when I contact the areas directly next May, but I don't expect the results to change materially. I have Nov-Dec. 2023 at 57% in the West and 60% overall.
California is at 31%; 3 other seasons were under 30% and 6 more under 40%. This one is in the middle of the pack for that group in terms of open ski terrain. Mammoth and Kirkwood claim over half open by trail count, but I'm not buying that in terms of acreage based upon the 3 days Adam skied at Mammoth this week.
The Pacific Northwest is at 49%, 4th worst of the past 52 years (1976-77 was 13%). Whistler was 38% open a week ago, now 54% after 2 feet last week. That 54% is still the third lowest percent open of the past 28 years. Bachelor's 54% open is fifth lowest of 28 years and Crystal's 38% open is record low of 28 years.
Interior western Canada is at 69%, 5th worst of the past 52 years (2000-01 was 50%). Fernie's 58% open is third lowest of 25 years and and Big White's 66% open fifth worst. The Banff areas are about 3/4 open, but base depths are under 3 feet and they are historically aggressive about opening in low tide conditions.
The US. Northern Rockies are at 52%, second worst to 1976-77's 38%. Jackson's 47% open is third lowest of 25 years and Sun Valley's 20% second lowest. Schweitzer's 21% open and Big Sky's 41% open are record lows for the past 25 years.
Utah is the leading western region in North America at 72% (about 1/4 of seasons have been worse with 1976-77 an outlier 15%) but average snowfall over the past 3 weeks is less than a foot. Only Alta has a base over 4 feet. Park City is 40% open, though it's half or less open at New Year's in about 30% of seasons.
Northern and Central Colorado is at 62%, 6th worst of the past 52 years (3 worst years 1977, 1981 and 2012 were in 45% range). This is a typical subpar holiday for the region: Steamboat, Vail and Winter Park 75% open on 3 foot bases, other places half or less open on closer to 2 foot bases. Overall open terrain is around 20th percentile for New Year's.
The Southwest is at 67%, 7th worst of the past 52 years (3 worst years 1977, 2000 and 2018 were in 35% range). Most areas (Taos excepted at 39%) are a little over half open but very low tide with bases barely over 2 feet.
The Northeast was doing well up to mid-December when the northern Vermont areas were over half open. There has been a ton of rain over the past two weeks so season snowfall is at 74% now (about 1/4 of seasons have been worse with 1982-83 at 38%). Currently Jay's 15% open and Stowe's 28% open are second lowest of the past 21 years.
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But the places that are most manageable are the ones with strong early season track records: Targhee, Alta, Whistler, Steamboat.
No relationship whatsoever year-to-year. Weak positive correlation month-to-month, zero correlation with time spread of two months or more.
EMSC
Well-known member
Just heard today from some folks who were at WP yesterday. Some of it was solidly good, but most of the terrain was so rocky that they're pretty sure that they will be buying new skis sooner than later based on the number of huge dings to their skis. "I hit more rocks yesterday than I have in the last several seasons combined".
Things overheard by family in Trax at Greek Peak a couple days ago. "How are conditions? Horrible!", "At least it wasn't solid ice". And GP has invested a TON in snowmaking over the past decade... I can only imaging how badly the other local places in upstate NY are doing.
jamesdeluxe
Administrator
That's more or less what Bryan at Solitude told me this afternoon.
My numbers seem not to be any more negative than reality on the ground. Mammoth, Solitude and Winter Park are relatively well off in regional context, so these eyewitness reports have scary implications about a lot of other places.
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tseeb
Well-known member
Heavenly says "we now have 582 acres of terrain open." That must include Little Dipper run under Comet chair.
Run usually has big bumps. Photo from Epic Pass Holders FB. Total YTD snowfall according to OpenSnow is 23", 21% of average. Link is from VP and COO who says he posts every Friday but missed 12/8 and 12/22. He also said gondola would be open one day last Spring when I could tell predicted winds would keep it closed.
Run usually has big bumps. Photo from Epic Pass Holders FB. Total YTD snowfall according to OpenSnow is 23", 21% of average. Link is from VP and COO who says he posts every Friday but missed 12/8 and 12/22. He also said gondola would be open one day last Spring when I could tell predicted winds would keep it closed.
jamesdeluxe
Administrator
Is there any precedent for an early season where virtually all the major ski regions in North America, East and West, are this far below average? Tony's bullets for 1976-77 and 1980-81 show that the East was doing well while most of the West was faring poorly.
The only seasons with no region above average as of Jan. 1:
But several regions were much worse in 1976-77 and 1980-81:
There was very little snowmaking in the West back then. I was just beginning to ski in 1977, but that season was sufficiently extreme to attract mainstream media attention. I read that Mt. Waterman had the highest base depth in the western US during the first week of January. Supposedly 1977 was considered a fluke in Colorado but after 1981 all of those destination resorts made major investments in snowmaking. Mammoth did not until 1991, after a drought lasted until the end of February.
| CA | PNW | CanRock | NorRock | Utah | I-70 CO | Southwest | Northeast | West Avg | All Avg | |
| 86-87 | 32% | 80% | 83% | 69% | 43% | 66% | 92% | 79% | 66% | 68% |
| 23-24 | 31% | 49% | 69% | 52% | 72% | 62% | 67% | 74% | 57% | 60% |
But several regions were much worse in 1976-77 and 1980-81:
| CA | PNW | CanRock | NorRock | Utah | I-70 CO | Southwest | Northeast | West Avg | All Avg | |
| 76-77 | 28% | 13% | 88% | 38% | 15% | 45% | 37% | 142% | 38% | 51% |
| 80-81 | 30% | 68% | 139% | 70% | 44% | 44% | 47% | 124% | 63% | 71% |
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ChrisC
Well-known member
My brother finally had his first ski day at Telluride - on January 3rd. This is likely due to business, obligations and lackluster conditions.
Here are some pics of the present conditions. I did not know there were so many saplings on these runs. Impressively, Telluride can open 50-60%/Chair 9 of the mountain on only a 24" base. It's not very good, but it's open.
Here are some pics of the present conditions. I did not know there were so many saplings on these runs. Impressively, Telluride can open 50-60%/Chair 9 of the mountain on only a 24" base. It's not very good, but it's open.
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I have had that vague impression before. Chair 9 is a consistent fall line with ideal altitude/exposure. Gold Hill is more like other Colorado steeps that take a long time to get covered. I wonder if some of the chair 9 runs get "summer grooming" to remove any rocks much larger than gravel. I read somewhere that is done on the Face of Bell at Aspen. This is routine at some intermediate snowmaking dependent places like Big Bear.
Hopefully this season hit rock bottom on New Year's. The 10-15 inches in the Sierra that tseeb skied yesterday is the largest storm there so far this season. The big improvement is that now it's cold. The Northwest is in line for larger storms over the next week and unlike Nov/Dec they will be all snow.
ChrisC
Well-known member
I don't know, but the terrain underneath is not all that rocky. There are a few bands - referred to as the coral reefs. I thought 30" would be the minimum for opening Chair 9 runs, who knew you could open Spiral Stairs on 2 feet of base?
Chair 12/Prospect Bowl is also like Chair 9. It gets tons of blow-in snow, so they can open the Black Iron Bowl and the other expert areas above the lift.
Revelation Bowl also opened on 2 ft. All blow-in.
That's why I always feel like Telluride under-reports new snow that you will be skiing on at their snow gauges. Some of the best areas are the beneficiaries of storm flow blow-in snow, resulting in about 150% of reported.
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