South America 2026

[Tony Crocker]

Sorry indeed. Those buildings are the base of El Colorado at 9,000 feet. It's hard for me to believe that it's not routinely below freezing at night in June/July. I suspect the water supply for snowmaking is not very robust. It again strikes me as ironic that Mountain Capital Partners expanded into Southern Hemisphere climatology with similar but arguably worse issues as their home base in the American Southwest.

 

[Skieric]

Sorry indeed. Those buildings are the base of El Colorado at 9,000 feet. It's hard for me to believe that it's not routinely below freezing at night in June/July. I suspect the water supply for snowmaking is not very robust. It again strikes me as ironic that Mountain Capital Partners expanded into Southern Hemisphere climatology with similar but arguably worse issues as their home base in the American Southwest.

MCP must know something about how to run ski areas in marginal areas. They seem to keep expanding in that market. They have had a long stretch of below freezing temps. I suspect they have the same water issues as Colorado/Utah with the majority of their water falling in the winter.

 

[Patrick]

Sorry indeed.

It is still early, but having to choose a continent for Summer turns, I would be looking at Oz/NZ over the Andes.
For activities outside skiing (as discussed elsewhere) and possible ski days on the Ikon. Andes 5, NZ 5, Australia 10.

 

[ChrisC]

MCP must know something about how to run ski areas in marginal areas. They seem to keep expanding in that market.

I assume the population growth in the Southwest (Las Vegas, Phoenix, etc.) is strong enough to outweigh the costs of drought years.

They have had a long stretch of below freezing temps. I suspect they have the same water issues as Colorado/Utah with the majority of their water falling in the winter.

Yeah. Otherwise, Portillo would have 100% snowmaking, with its high alpine lake as its water source!

Basically, only the beginner lift and magic carpet are open at Portillo.

 

[ChrisC]

It is still early, but having to choose a continent for Summer turns, I would be looking at Oz/NZ over the Andes.

No way!

You could do some scenario modeling/likelihood percentages for forecasted snow (likelihoods for 1-5/6-10/11-15-day forecasts), and currently, South America looks like it would be a superior experience.

Ten feet of snow (below forecasts) would open almost 100% of Chile & Argentina with a base that will endure the season. Even 5-7 feet (more likely) would change the entire season's trajectory.

New Zealand (except Mt Hutt) looks boney and not much on the horizon. Outlook: disappointing.

Australia - Perhaps worse than NZ? And certainly more expensive

 

[ChrisC]

For activities outside skiing (as discussed elsewhere) and possible ski days on the Ikon. Andes 5, NZ 5, Australia 10.

I am really only interested in the ski experience. If it's no good, it's not worth it.


Patrick seems to want to collect ski days for August & September, use free Ikon days (more resorts in OZ/NZ), and see the touring schedule of bands. Sure, Australia and NZ are a stronger offering.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Ten feet of snow (below forecasts) would open almost 100% of Chile & Argentina with a base that will endure the season. Even 5-7 feet (more likely) would change the entire season's trajectory.

It would but we have seen this movie before. Storm forecasts a week out in South America are like Lucy holding the football for Charlie Brown. IMHO nobody should be committing $$ until that snow is on the ground.

This situation is an echo of mine in 2015. There was a much hyped El Nino getting started (end June readings +1.0 in both cases) but no snow through June. After a 5-6 foot dump in early July I committed to Las Lenas for Aug. 22 - Sep. 3. There was one more similar storm in early August but only bits and pieces after that. The season still ended below average with coverage far less than I saw in 2005, but I got more days with Marte open to ski some lines I should not be skiing now.

use free Ikon days

A necessary strategy in North America, but a tail-wag-the-dog situation overseas where day tickets are still reasonable.

We will be somewhat committed to Oz/NZ after TSE2028 because it's Liz' only unskied continent.

 

[Sbooker]

We will be somewhat committed to Oz/NZ after TSE2028 because it's Liz' only unskied continent.

Interesting that Liz has not skied down here. I’ll make an effort to cross ski tracks with you somewhere that season all things being equal.

 

[Sbooker]

Storm forecasts a week out in South America are like Lucy holding the football for Charlie Brown.

Nice analogy and one that I’ll use in the future. Our summer storm forecasts come under this category too.

 

[Patrick]

It would but we have seen this movie before. Storm forecasts a week out in South America are like Lucy holding the football for Charlie Brown. IMHO nobody should be committing $$ until that snow is on the ground.

This.

We will be somewhat committed to Oz/NZ after TSE2028 because it's Liz' only unskied continent.

Not sure about this Summer's eclipse, but 2028 is definitely on my radar. I know the odds are remote, but ski turns during a total solar eclipse are extremely rare. Did it at Sugarloaf, Remarkables on a clear day would be super remarkable.

Patrick seems to want to collect ski days for August & September, use free Ikon days (more resorts in OZ/NZ), and see the touring schedule of bands. Sure, Australia and NZ are a stronger offering.

I want also to get away from the heat. 38c (100F) in Lyon today which has me questioning my commitment to France (and maybe eclipse in Spain) this Summer. Some people looks for warmer climates in Winter as they get older; I'm the opposite: Nordic countries or highest southern hemisphere latitude are looking more attractive regardless of skiing.
Ikon pass is just a sidenote and general commentary, I only have 4 remaining days in NZ having used 6 last Summer. My favorites Chilean, NZ and Australian ski areas are not Ikon : Chillan, Treble Cone & Hotham. I wouldn't focus on the Ikon areas, although Hutt was really good on 3 of the 4 days I used my Ikon last year. Did 6 of 9 Ikon days in NZ 2025 and 6 out of 8 in Australia 2022.

Days per SH areas:
Chillan CHL : 7
La Hoya ARG : 6
Thredbo AUS : 5
Catedral ARG : 4
Hutt NZ : 4
Las Lenas ARG : 4
Buller AUS : 3
Perisher AUS : 3
Portillo CHL : 3
Pucon CHL : 3
Valle Nevado CHL : 3
Bayo ARG : 2
Cadrona NZ : 2
Coronet NZ : 2
El Colorado CHL : 2
La Parva CHL : 2
Los Penitentes ARG : 2
Remarks NZ : 2
Treble Cone NZ : 2
Arpa CHL : 1
Chapelco ARG : 1
Charlotte Pass AUS : 1
Falls Creek AUS : 1
Farellones CHL : 1
Ohau NZ : 1
Porters NZ : 1
Turua NZ : 1
Volcan Villarica CHL (with Pucon) : 1
Whakapapa NZ : 1

 

[ChrisC]

It would but we have seen this movie before. Storm forecasts a week out in South America are like Lucy holding the football for Charlie Brown

The OpenSnow model and its opstimistic snowfall estimates is simply click bait for engagement, page counts, likes and shares. And I fall for it and repost it every time.

Why fix its accuracy when it probably performs the best for business purposes?

IMHO nobody should be committing $$ until that snow is on the ground.

I completely agree—I wouldn't book anything until there is a confirmed snowbase of at least 150–200cm. You have to approach Southern Hemisphere trips with the mindset that not another inch of snow will fall. You are essentially skiing whatever is on the ground at the time of booking, plus perhaps a few minor dustings.

Even Mt. Hutt is underwhelming right now. I’m skeptical of their reported base numbers; it feels like a snowmaking figure. There is no way 158cm of total snowfall translates to a 122cm base unless it's heavily wind-enhanced.

On a side note, I find the resort reporting software frustrating. It lists runs as "closed" the moment operating hours (9-4) end, which makes the data useless for planning. They should display the day's final status or keep the runs marked open so we have an accurate sense of the actual, coverage.

 

[ChrisC]

I want also to get away from the heat. 38c (100F) in Lyon today which has me questioning my commitment to France (and maybe eclipse in Spain) this Summer. Some people looks for warmer climates in Winter as they get older; I'm the opposite: Nordic countries or highest southern hemisphere latitude are looking more attractive regardless of skiing.

If you're looking to escape the heat, you could always visit San Francisco; it's generally cooler here than in the Nordic countries.

July in the city can require the heat to be on. Mine is ON this week!
(Note: I have never owned (or rented) in a primary residence with AC - window or otherwise)

Given the summer marine layer and typical weather patterns—where high interior pressure and heat brings in the cold Pacific air—highs are barely above 60°F and lows hover around 50°F. Inside buildings, our temperatures often stay in the low 60s without heating....

Basically, your life is governed by Fog Trackers:

Fog Today

Is it sunny at the beach? Check the latest fog conditions in the Bay Area with Fog Today.

fog.today

Link

Sometimes, you want to head inland to Walnut Creek or Mount Diablo for a hike, or venture north to Napa, St. Helena, Sonoma, or Santa Rosa—or even down to Silicon Valley—if you’re looking for 80–90°F summer temperatures.


Meanwhile, South Florida is all about tracking PM thunderstorms.

 

[berkshireskier]

If you're looking to escape the heat, you could always visit San Francisco; it's generally cooler here than in the Nordic countries.

July in the city can require the heat to be on.

Given the summer marine layer and typical weather patterns—where high interior pressure and heat brings in the cold Pacific air—highs are barely above 60°F and lows hover around 50°F. Inside buildings, our temperatures often stay in the low 60s without heating....

Basically, your life is governed by Fog Trackers:

Fog Today

Is it sunny at the beach? Check the latest fog conditions in the Bay Area with Fog Today.

fog.today

Client Challenge

Sometimes, you want to head inland to Walnut Creek or Mount Diablo for a hike, or venture north to Napa, St. Helena, Sonoma, or Santa Rosa—or even down to Silicon Valley—if you’re looking for 80–90°F summer temperatures.

Hence, the famous quote from Mark Twain: "The coldest Winter I ever had was a Summer in San Francisco".

 

[ChrisC]

A necessary strategy in North America, but a tail-wag-the-dog situation overseas where day tickets are still reasonable.

Yes. Agree. The Epic/Ikon Partner (or non-partner) Resorts globally are approximately $100/day walk-up (even less in the Alps/Japan, more in OZ/NZ), and almost should not overwelmingly influence decisions.

Even owning a Mountain Collective Pass in 2016 with 2 free days at Valle Nevado, I perhaps made a mistake to use both there:

• Saturday - Skied La Parva. No crowds, lines, parking issues. Just me and the USA Ski Team.
• Sunday - Debated to drive up to Portillo again vs. Valle Nevado (but it was 2 hrs vs. 45 min & free day). However, the crowding from Santiago day trippers was high at Valle on the weekend. Portillo would have been dead/un-crowded, and a lot more couloirs to explore in a great corn cycle!

 

[jamesdeluxe]

Patrick seems to want to collect ski days for August & September, use free Ikon days (more resorts in OZ/NZ), and see the touring schedule of bands. Sure, Australia and NZ are a stronger offering.

He wants to be there in the event of a surprise Midnight Oil reunion show.

 

[Skieric]

I agree there is definitely something wrong with the algorithms on OpenSnow, however I a doubtful this is intentional. I have a few speculations, as to what is wrong. Some issues may include storm timing and how it reports the totals for a a future potential store. Is it perhaps adding up the variability for when the storm will come? Such that a storm with the moisture for 2 feet of snow next week with likely arrival Tuesday +/- 1.5 days. This results in a snow in the forecasts from Sunday evening to Thursday morning although it will likely only snow for 12 hours. Is it adding up all of this variability into ridiculous sums? Other issues may be poor handling of the microclimates. It looks like some of the summits of peaks to the east are well into the range of 14,000-20,000 foot peaks. Perhaps its latching onto the likely snow amounts in much higher locations than where the ski areas are located.

It looks like Chillian is getting a complete reset today from rain. It basically back to bare ground. Looking at the webcams, it looks like the Santiago ski areas are getting some snow from this store.

 

[ChrisC]

He wants to be there in the event of a surprise Midnight Oil reunion show.

I agree that there’s likely a non-transparent factor at work.

It reminds me of last year, when Australia was having a fantastic season, yet Patrick chose to head to New Zealand, which turned out to be below average to poor.

Looking back at photos and some PeakRankings videos from that time, New Zealand looked like a minefield of rock and ice, with only a few barely skiable steep lines. While the terrain there is impressive, that high-alpine, above-treeline landscape appears incredibly barren and unforgiving without a deep snowpack.

 

[Patrick]

He wants to be there in the event of a surprise Midnight Oil reunion show.

That being said, Peter Garrett is touring in November. The Oils lost two key members to cancer since 2020, I know some bands have continued, specifically thinking about Yes.
But I know there are a few shows that are happening and I wouldn't mind seeing, but not going to push for a trip to coincide with Oils in Australia, Fish in Holland and Propaganda in Germany.

Looking back at photos and some PeakRankings videos from that time, New Zealand looked like a minefield of rock and ice, with only a few barely skiable steep lines. While the terrain there is impressive, that high-alpine, above-treeline landscape appears incredibly barren and unforgiving without a deep snowpack.

My trip last year and snow coincided pretty good last year, but I booked less than 3 weeks away.

If you're looking to escape the heat, you could always visit San Francisco; it's generally cooler here than in the Nordic countries.

Did San Francisco and Northern California for a 2wk family vacation, it was good, but not as good as Iceland, Norway and Sweden. Although I love my trips to Ireland and the Yukon; could have been cooler for my liking.

 

[ChrisC]

It looks like Chillian is getting a complete reset today from rain. It basically back to bare ground. Looking at the webcams, it looks like the Santiago ski areas are getting some snow from this store.

Depressing. Even the more reliable areas are struggling; it looks like Corralco is starting from zero as well.

 

[jasoncapecod]

for what it's worth...the GFS is very impressive with a persistent flow next week