Western North America Conditions 2025/26

[Tony Crocker]

Problems above were resolved this morning. This is now the rainiest SoCal November since 1965. The 3 days last weekend were 100% rain in the ski areas. but round 2 Wednesday-Friday snowed 17 inches at Mt. High and 12-20 at Baldy, both of which opened today. 9 inches at Big Bear, where they are making snow but have not announced an opening.

 

[MarzNC]

Looking at the forecast for the next 10 days for Wolf Creek . . . I think my crew will have a good time the week of Dec. 7.

 

[ChrisC]

Steamboat opened. lol

 

[snowtrekker]

Basically 1 lift (green) and run (blue) open, and the gondola for access:

 

[jamesdeluxe]

Steamboat opened.

Dirt and condos

 

[Tony Crocker]

Looking at the forecast for the next 10 days for Wolf Creek

That's a week out with lots of variability, but probably better than nearly anywhere else. Wolf Creek got 13 inches from the recent SW storm.

 

[MarzNC]

That's a week out with lots of variability, but probably better than nearly anywhere else.

I started looking at the total snowfall forecast map for Colorado. As of this morning, only Wolf Creek and Purgatory have the potential to get into a purple zone of 30+ inches by Dec. 7.

 

[ShiftyRider]

Lotsa snow to ski and snowboard on @Baldy, but it's a little on the pink side...

 

[jasoncapecod]

I started looking at the total snowfall forecast map for Colorado. As of this morning, only Wolf Creek and Purgatory have the potential to get into a purple zone of 30+ inches by Dec. 7.

View attachment 48134

new ecmwf is pumping up monster ridge with a 1040 surface high over Colo and the Rockies..

 

[Tony Crocker]

Joel has backed way off that forecast from Sunday.

Joel says the models disagree a lot and he has no confidence about Colorado past Saturday.

By contrast the California forecasters see nothing on the horizon before Dec. 5.

Meanwhile the Arizona guy is justly gloating.

Snowbowl checked in with 57" out of last weeks storm cycle. The base is at 40", never seen an early season setup like this in my 25 years in the hood. Mild weather set for the holiday week, with the potential for a winter -like storm for the weekend following Thanksgiving.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Confirming what most of us know about the current situation:

Alan Smith at OpenSnow:

In examining past years, we've found that slow starts in California, Utah, and Colorado have a better chance of transitioning to deep winters in either 1) strong La Nina phases or 2) weak La Nina + westerly QBO phases.

In past years with slow starts combined with a weak La Nina + easterly QBO phases, like what we have this year, we haven't seen a similar signal in which slow starts were followed by huge seasons. Typically, the snowier seasons in these analogs had better starts.

This is partly why we expanded our below-normal snowfall odds further north into Utah and Colorado on this latest outlook.

In general I'm not a fan of forecasting based upon analog seasons. Sample sizes are too small. The QBO may be the current culprit and hopefully it won't stay as it is now for the whole season.

 

[MarzNC]

Joel has backed way off that forecast from Sunday.

One reason that a 10-day forecast from OpenSnow is plenty for me is because even if I see a 15-day forecast, I don't really put much stock in it.

Although the snow totals for the next storm to hit Wolf Creek have dropped quite a bit, overall the additional snow expected by the time I start skiing isn't that much different.

 

[takeahike46er]

Oof. Revelstoke is the latest to postpone their opening day. Crystal too, but that’s less of a surprise given how warm it has been in WA.

One reason that a 10-day forecast from OpenSnow is plenty for me is because even if I see a 15-day forecast, I don't really put much stock in it.

Agree, 15-day is typically not worth looking at. Even 10-day forecasts can be suspect, especially when it comes to forecasting precipitation amounts.

It makes me think of this post by a local BC forecaster. He uses the analogy of a candle to explain why making a weather prediction becomes more challenging as the time is extended.

 

[EMSC]

the current situation

Here's all I need to know about my current situation. It may or may not be related to my situation by this weekend, but for today...

 

[tseeb]

Heavenly opened Monday with 2 runs; Patsy's, a mostly E-facing beginner run used to get to higher CA lifts from top of Gunbarrel chair or Tram, and Mambo, which has some S-facing that is in this photo. Surprised they can't get longer beginner run Maggie's open from same chair open.

Photo of Mambo from 11/15/22 when there were better options.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Oof. Revelstoke is the latest to postpone their opening day.

Revelstoke has had 92 inches in Oct/Nov but that is at its snow plot at top of Ripper chair. Obviously it’s been mostly rain up past the bottom of Stoke.

 

[Tony Crocker]

My Surface Pro 3 locked up last night and may not be usable until after I get home Dec. 8. I did collect most Nov. 30 snowfall stats. Western North America snowfall was 38% of normal. That’s what 1976-77 was for November AND December.

The Utah Wasatch was under 10% this November, which is surely unprecedented.

Anyone else finding Alta and Loveland websites down the last two days?

 

[EMSC]

Anyone else finding Alta and Loveland websites down the last two days?

I never looked yesterday, but they are certainly working today...

Loveland Dec 1st report (the 5a vs 8a makes literally no sense though. Loveland did not have any new snow between 5a and 8a yesterday to have different 24hr figures like that. I know as I drove right on by the base on dry roads at 9a!)

Alta Dec 1st

 

[Tony Crocker]

Thanks for the Alta and Loveland info.

 

[ChrisC]

Still looking weak across the west, but lots of optimism for future NW snowfall.

Colorado is getting a few storms.

Tahoe and Utah look like they will have seriously bad holiday period.