Western North America Conditions 2025/26

ChrisC said:
No FOMO. More like a hard pass.
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Yep. Haven't even considered skiing yet.

At least Copper is pretty close on opening several more public trails. Though it won't help much because lots more skiers are about to show up.
 
In addition to my imminent departure for two weeks with questionable connectivity,
1) My home internet has crashed; a tech is coming out tomorrow.
2) My OpenSnow subscription (group with Adam) expired and even though he renewed mine isn’t working yet.
 
Problems above were resolved this morning. This is now the rainiest SoCal November since 1965. The 3 days last weekend were 100% rain in the ski areas. but round 2 Wednesday-Friday snowed 17 inches at Mt. High and 12-20 at Baldy, both of which opened today. 9 inches at Big Bear, where they are making snow but have not announced an opening.
 
Looking at the forecast for the next 10 days for Wolf Creek . . . I think my crew will have a good time the week of Dec. 7. ❄️❄️:)
 
Steamboat opened. lol 😂


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MarzNC said:
Looking at the forecast for the next 10 days for Wolf Creek
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That's a week out with lots of variability, but probably better than nearly anywhere else. Wolf Creek got 13 inches from the recent SW storm.
 
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Tony Crocker said:
That's a week out with lots of variability, but probably better than nearly anywhere else.
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I started looking at the total snowfall forecast map for Colorado. As of this morning, only Wolf Creek and Purgatory have the potential to get into a purple zone of 30+ inches by Dec. 7.

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Whistler isn’t as bad as I feared. Yes, coverage and conditions are bad on the lower third of Jersey Cream and Catskinner, but coverage above 1800m is great. Much more skiable terrain than the 3 trails officially open.

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Skiers coming down Saudan

The runs off Chainsaw Ridge and elsewhere in the alpine were already in and fair game (False Face, Saudan Couloir, Cougar Chutes). Technically it’s all out of bounds, but that’s more to do with staffing than coverage. How many mountains can you get into that kind of terrain for opening weekend?

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Uphill travel permitted via 7th
 
So 7th Heaven is running to get you up to Saudan and Chainsaw? If not that’s a tough hike from Jersey Cream. Those alpine pics are what I expected with the estimated 104 inches.

Mammoth has openings that include high alpine expert terrain. That includes now, but I’d guess there is twice as much snowpack at Whistler.
 
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7th is not running. The uphill route is a groomed cat track starting at the top of Jersey Cream. It’s actually quite an easy hike/skin with a gentler pitch than Flute. It takes approximately 10 minutes to get to the lower Chainsaw runs and 45 minutes to get to top of 7th. Much easier than hike to terrain at Telluride, Taos, etc.

On the Whistler side, a similar uphill route goes up Pika’s giving access to the Harmony, Peak, and Symphony zones. Much of that terrain should be skiing well when Whistler opens, which I am told may be as soon as Wednesday.
 
Joel has backed way off that forecast from Sunday.
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Joel says the models disagree a lot and he has no confidence about Colorado past Saturday.

By contrast the California forecasters see nothing on the horizon before Dec. 5.

Meanwhile the Arizona guy is justly gloating.
Snowbowl checked in with 57" out of last weeks storm cycle. The base is at 40", never seen an early season setup like this in my 25 years in the hood. Mild weather set for the holiday week, with the potential for a winter -like storm for the weekend following Thanksgiving.
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Confirming what most of us know about the current situation:
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Alan Smith at OpenSnow:
In examining past years, we've found that slow starts in California, Utah, and Colorado have a better chance of transitioning to deep winters in either 1) strong La Nina phases or 2) weak La Nina + westerly QBO phases.

In past years with slow starts combined with a weak La Nina + easterly QBO phases, like what we have this year, we haven't seen a similar signal in which slow starts were followed by huge seasons. Typically, the snowier seasons in these analogs had better starts.

This is partly why we expanded our below-normal snowfall odds further north into Utah and Colorado on this latest outlook.
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In general I'm not a fan of forecasting based upon analog seasons. Sample sizes are too small. The QBO may be the current culprit and hopefully it won't stay as it is now for the whole season.
 
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Tony Crocker said:
Joel has backed way off that forecast from Sunday.
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One reason that a 10-day forecast from OpenSnow is plenty for me is because even if I see a 15-day forecast, I don't really put much stock in it.

Although the snow totals for the next storm to hit Wolf Creek have dropped quite a bit, overall the additional snow expected by the time I start skiing isn't that much different.
 
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Oof. Revelstoke is the latest to postpone their opening day. Crystal too, but that’s less of a surprise given how warm it has been in WA.

MarzNC said:
One reason that a 10-day forecast from OpenSnow is plenty for me is because even if I see a 15-day forecast, I don't really put much stock in it.
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Agree, 15-day is typically not worth looking at. Even 10-day forecasts can be suspect, especially when it comes to forecasting precipitation amounts.

It makes me think of this post by a local BC forecaster. He uses the analogy of a candle to explain why making a weather prediction becomes more challenging as the time is extended.
 
Heavenly opened Monday with 2 runs; Patsy's, a mostly E-facing beginner run used to get to higher CA lifts from top of Gunbarrel chair or Tram, and Mambo, which has some S-facing that is in this photo. Surprised they can't get longer beginner run Maggie's open from same chair open.

Photo of Mambo from 11/15/22 when there were better options.
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