Is the East Coast season finished? (powder-wise, that is)

[RailingK]

But the snow pack is still holding up so still time for good corn or maybe things will turn around and will have another powder day . As for this weekend , looks like " Bomb Proof " unless the winds let up and the sun can soften things up . I haven't given up

Killington this weekend softened up nicely, some great corn runs all over the mountain. Not bomb-proof at all!

Still, it's not looking good for a late season dump, is it. Sniff.

K

 

[J.Spin]

Still, it's not looking good for a late season dump, is it. Sniff.

It looks like things will be getting interesting later this week in terms of weather, and there will likely be snow for the mountains. At this point it doesn't look like anything huge, but the BTV NWS has multiple mentions of accumulating snow in their discussion so it's certainly something to watch. In any event the weather pattern here is shifting a bit so keep checking the BTV NWS discussions.

-J

 

[Tony Crocker]

The eastern ski season was distinctly above average until March, probably still rates to come in close to average. I have no partial month snowfall data to answer that question. I get official monthly data sometime in May.

Trail counts are only down a little now, but they will collapse by the end of the month if this weather trend continues. Advance booking in late March/early April no question that disaster percentage is more than JSpin's 25% mid-season.

JSpin, as enthusiastic an eastern skier as we have on these boards, has reiterated what I've said (and the late icelantic/River etc. have demonstrated) about flexibility. If you're not flexible you're not going to enjoy eastern skiing on a significant proportion of your ski days. "Bad" days in SLC are pretty damn good on an absolute scale, as I've experienced many times.

Easterners whose jobs, family obligations etc. determine their vacation dates far in advance should be taking those vacations in the West. Particularly since those dates tend to be Christmas or late season when the odds are more stacked against the East than mid-season.

 

[riverc0il]

The eastern ski season was distinctly above average until March, probably still rates to come in close to average.

Coming from someone that has actually skied the east coast this year I disagree that the skiing has been "distinctly" above average. My measurements are probably different than Tony's though as Tony probably relies on trail counts. But if all trails are open and it hasn't snowed in three weeks, then conditions probably are not at their best off the groomers.

This season, powder days have much fewer and further between with fewer "surprise" off the radar storms. Definitely a "you snooze, you loose" season, more so than usual. I lost out on some of the better days due to work, but not enough that I would have cared during an average season. This season, it just seemed there were fewer storms to chase.

I did miss four great days following my injury. I'll be back out there next weekend for spring skiing (which seems to have started two weeks ago with no significant snow during one of the biggest snow months historically). But other than the initial weekend I got injured, I can't say I missed much besides excellent spring skiing this past Sunday. There was no January thaw but there was a horrible early February thaw. And I can't remember a worse March for lack of snow.

 

[Tony Crocker]

With regard to trail counts, the ungroomed "expert" trails do get closed at the drop of a hat after adverse (read rain/freeze) weather events.

But subjective reports here on FTO are key to my estimations. Is the March 15 100% open at Sugarbush BS? Jay and Stowe were reporting around 85%. This would normally mean a B rating on my bestsnow.net/vrmthist.htm chart. Should it be C?

 

[kcyanks1]

With regard to trail counts, the ungroomed "expert" trails do get closed at the drop of a hat after adverse (read rain/freeze) weather events.

But subjective reports here on FTO are key to my estimations. Is the March 15 100% open at Sugarbush BS? Jay and Stowe were reporting around 85%. This would normally mean a B rating on my bestsnow.net/vrmthist.htm chart. Should it be C?

Sugarbush is much more willing to keep trails open than Stowe. I wasn't there, but I doubt the 100% open is BS. Sugarbush will open trails in more marginal conditions. Stowe closes them. Also, the expert/ungroomed stuff at Sugarbush -- Castlerock -- is probably less wind exposed than some of the double-diamonds at Stowe (whether or not they receive snowmaking), and Castlerock also has a south-eastern exposure, I believe, so it might soften up quicker. But it mostly comes down to policy. MRG is very willing to open trails with marginal cover, but they also are very quick to close after thaw/freeze events.

 

[Marc_C]

if i hear one more person battle crocker or the admin about the merits of east vs west, i think i'm gonna throw up :roll:

Now that icelantic has left the building, you'll have to find someone else to mudwrestle with on this point.

I miss that guy. He did at least make the East look awesome!

I do, too, kinda. I especially wanted to see how he would spin this statement from yesterday's Mt Washington Avi Conditions bulletin:

"Basically, the entire mountain is covered in a very hard icy surface."

"This pattern began late last week with a warm, wet day which was
followed by a sharp drop in temperature. Since then ample sunshine,
further melt-freeze action, and time have allowed this surface to
harden into a bulletproof crust. How slick is it? Brian relayed to me a
story from Saturday of a ski helmet sliding out of Left Gully, zipping
past him in the floor, and ending up at the bottom of the Little
Headwall. If a helmet can slide that far on its own, just imagine how
far you might go if you are unable to self arrest before picking up
speed?"

 

[jtran10]

Stowe reopened most terrain today after the warm temps last night. I think they're fast to close these trails recently because they haven't been getting sufficiently soft to be "safe".

To those saying that this season has been average or below, you just weren't skiing in the right places. Get creative, go exploring, stay off the beaten path.

And lastly, there's talk of an upper elevation snow event right at the end of March. Hopefully it pans out.

 

[J.Spin]

Coming from someone that has actually skied the east coast this year I disagree that the skiing has been "distinctly" above average. My measurements are probably different than Tony's though as Tony probably relies on trail counts. But if all trails are open and it hasn't snowed in three weeks, then conditions probably are not at their best off the groomers.

I agree with River and continue to feel that the season has been about average, at least in Northern Vermont where I do most of my skiing. It’s strange to see people even talking about an above average season when just a month ago people were talking about how bad it was in the “This is not good” thread. Granted it was joegm that started that thread, but others expressed some concern as well. Perhaps for parts of the Northeast the season has been distinctly above average, but I’m not really seeing it around here. I did say in a post in that thread back in mid February that if the rest of February, March, and April came in like gangbusters then the season would have a chance to come in noticeably above average in my opinion, but I haven’t see that play out yet. Subsequent to that comment we did have that nice stretch where Bolton got the six feet of snow in six days, but one short stretch of great snow doesn’t make for an above average season. I don’t know anything about trail counts, but for local metrics I’d want to see Jay Peak easily blasting their way past 400 inches of snowfall, and the snow depth at the Mt. Mansfield stake getting past or at least threatening 100 inches at this time of the year before I’d really start thinking about a much above average winter. Bolton Valley and Stowe haven’t even reached their average annual snowfall totals yet, so unless the next few weeks get ridiculous they’re not going to surpass them by too much. Obviously we know that snowfall and snowpack numbers can only say so much about the quality of the skiing, so one has to look at some of the less tangible aspects that weigh into the overall quality of skiing equation like rain/mixed precipitation events and dry spells. If we get more than two or three rain or substantial mixed events around here during the heart of ski season, I’d call that worse than average, and while I’m not sure what the numbers were this season, I don’t believe they would tip the scales upward in terms of the overall skiing. As for substantial dry spells, I recall that we had one through much of January, another in the first half of February, and we’re in yet another one now. In my mind that’s also not going to tip the scales upward in terms of overall skiing. If anything those less tangible metrics should lower the overall rating of the winter. Sure there’s been lots of great powder skiing in this area in the past several months, but people have to remember that that’s par for the course around here. The skiing has to really be going off for a long time (i.e. something along the lines of 2000-2001) to get me thinking well above average. I don’t have much to complain about in terms of the skiing this season, in fact to E’s dismay there have been very few non-work days where the skiing has been of low enough quality that one could justify taking it off and doing other stuff, but I’ll need some additional convincing that it was notably above average.

-J

 

[Tony Crocker]

To call 2000-01 "above average" is a gross understatement. It was a 25+ year record for Jay and Smuggs and you easterners will be very lucky to see another season like that. Last year was probably ~80th percentile, which by my thinking is also better than "above average." This year was above average because you actually had some decent skiing in December when there are a lot of years you do not, there were no thaws or rain events in January, and the 6-foot storm cycle in February is not chopped liver even by Alta standards. There were rain/freeze events at Christmas and just before President's week, which I'm sure stick in some people's minds. But knowledgeable FTO easterners are not bound by the calendar; thus through late February there was a higher proportion than normal of good weekends from what I read here. If March continues to suck, there will be marginal skiing at best in April and I suspect the overall will be about average.

I do not have that Vermont chart with me on the road, so I don't remember how much above average it was as of late February. But I'd appreciate some input for the weekends in Northern Vermont since 2/28-3/1. None with majority powder/packed powder I assume. What I really want to know is how many were significantly terrain-restricted to a typical advanced skier. If the areas were nominally 90% open but half the trails were for masochists (or Patrick) only, I'd like to know that too.

 

[Harvey]

...we are into the Guinness tonight after surviving another week of work without getting tossed out.

I am with you on that Anthony. My season has been hijacked by the economic meltdown and it's impact on our business. I had 15 days by New Years and only have 19 days now.

From an objective point of view in our corner of the northeast...I'd have to call it dead on average. Gore's average season snowfall is reported as 150" and we are at 149" by my count now.

No question the start looked very promising. The first real NCP event was on 12/26 and after that incident there was 5 or six weeks with steady snowfall in low amounts and no temps above freezing. As stated above it's really March that has disappointed.

I skied one of the best ski days ever on 12/20, and I secretly hoped that wasn't going to be my best day of the year. If I had known what I know now...I never would have called it quits at 2pm that day.

Still...life is good...and skiing makes it better. Should be a good weekend.

One thing about ICE...think what you may about his optimism. But he's no dummy. He wouldn't be skiing on the rockpile when it's covered in ice. He takes flexibility to a new level...flexible timing, terrain, gear (fix and free heel) and attitude. I'm sure he's having fun.

 

[Patrick]

Spring Break is almost over. Great days on great conditions and challenging conditions from VT to QC, big hills and small hills. Great fun regardless.

And yes, this the snowless period in the town that i can remember.

More when i get back home.

 

[j howard]

bummer you thought this season sucked. i kind of thought it was one of my best. maybe the goods didn't last or weren't exactly plentiful, but man the gettin was good when it was good. i don't mind that i didn't get to do my yearly western trip because i had so many stellar powder days.

better luck next year?

 

[Tony Crocker]

Gore's average season snowfall is reported as 150" and we are at 149" by my count now.

Is average after March 19 zero? I suspect not; thus the season will be above average unless there is an unusually warm or dry final month.

 

[riverc0il]

Is average after March 19 zero? I suspect not; thus the season will be above average unless there is an unusually warm or dry final month.

Tony, I expect better than that from you. Total snowfall is not a valid indicator of how good a season is, though there is some correlation. Perhaps causation kicks in when the total snowfall is significantly above average. But one inch above average with barely more than a few inches for the month of March? Hardly an indicator of a good season, let alone above average.

Also, it was previously noted by Tony that the lack of a January thaw is another indicator of a good season. However, the January thaw did happen. Albeit slightly late during the first week of February and there was no good skiing until the 5 day long snowy period in late February... from which we have had no significant snow storms since. So the two historically snowiest months have had a total of one significant and long lasting storm this season. And late season looks desperate for a last minute storm at this point.

Currently, I rate this season as average, mostly for an excellent December with a decent January (minus the entire holiday period in the middle). But without another snow storm and if skiing does not go long, I stand ready to down grade the season to below average. Above average (in my opinion) requires consistently above average snow conditions with a few above average powder days per month. This season is not at that level, especially given the dry March that looks to leave us without even one powder day (couple inches during the first week of the month aside) unless something comes together this weekend.

 

[Geoff]

This season is not at that level, especially given the dry March that looks to leave us without even one powder day (couple inches during the first week of the month aside) unless something comes together this weekend.

March has sucked for snow. Kmart had an 8" day a couple o' weeks ago and another 4" day last Thursday. On the flip side, my tan is in mid-April form and I've had some very nice spring condition days.

 

[Patrick]

I miss that guy. He did at least make the East look awesome!

It is Awesome. I had a beautiful week and March 17 was real good too. Must be the luck of the irish for this Canadian of Irish-descent or maybe simply knowledge in knowing where to look for the pot-of-gold.

I do, too, kinda. I especially wanted to see how he would spin this statement from yesterday's Mt Washington Avi Conditions bulletin:

"Basically, the entire mountain is covered in a very hard icy surface."

Okay, I was at LeMassif on that day...let's see what the rockpile looked at.

Spin? Spin? Let the TR from Mt Washington on March 17 fly. Looks awesome to me.

Airplane and Ammonoosuc Ravine 2009-03-17 with Jumpturn and GPetrics

http://www.timefortuckerman.com/forums/ ... hp?t=11273

Mt. Washington 3-15 and 3-17 from AWF170

http://www.timefortuckerman.com/forums/ ... hp?t=11288

3/17/09 trifecta tour by our old friend Icelandics

http://www.timefortuckerman.com/forums/ ... hp?t=11272

The only thing that sucks are all the Monday morning Quaterback comments lamenting about how the East sucks, it's fun out there, you just have to look for the pot-of-gold. Why am I not skiing today? Working and catching up on some stuff after one week Spring Break.

 

[jasoncapecod]

this past friday and saturday rock at gore.. sweet conditions with deep blue sky's..
that said if gore gets any rain they are cooked for the season...

 

[pointpeninsula]

Granted, there isn't much snow left, but Killington was in great shape nonetheless over the weekend. Saturday was warm as toast, and Sunday we were treated to probably 6 inches of fresh powder that fell pretty much from 8 AM to 3 PM. It really dumped after lunch. The skies cleared up just in time for the 5-1/2 hour drive home. Can't ask for much more that that. And, to top it off, the place was practically deserted on Sunday.

Tom

 

[Tony Crocker]

Total snowfall is not a valid indicator of how good a season is, though there is some correlation.

In the West it's a very good indicator once you take incidence into account. If it all comes in March like CA in 1991 or Taos in 2006 that's not a good year, especially to the bottom line of the resorts.

In the East temperature is as important to most areas and more important to the places that average under 200. Through February the frequency of rain or thaw events was no worse than average based on what I've been tracking on FTO since 2000.

My read of Patrick's comments is that you've been having normal early April spring ski conditions in mid-March. Without an abnormally snowy April trail counts will collapse much earlier and the rating in my chart won't rise much above where it is now. Again, would some of you easterners please comment on whether a significant proportion (say, more than 1/4) of ski trails were not or marginally skiable during any (how many) of the past 4 weekends in Northern Vermont? I'm inclined to mark one or two of them down based upon the consensus I read here, but I'd like some specifics.

FWIW I've arbitrarily defined "above average" in my regional snowfall trends as 108-120% of normal snowfall. Most eastern areas are likely to come in that range I think. The vrmthist.htm chart will be closer to average because of the likely premature cutoff of the late season.