Monday Bloody Monday...

rfarren

rfarren

New member
Unlike so many of you on this forum I can't just pick up and ski whenever, and unfortunately have to plan my trips. However, when I'm stuck in the city I often check on the forecasts, like a sports fan following their favorite team. I root for snow, even when I can't be there. I've been watching the forecast closely for the upcoming holiday, and it looks bad... real bad. There is a storm, or so says the gfs and ecwmf, coming in sunday night and monday. It looks absolutely brutal: lots and lots of rain, followed by nice and frigid weather. Although, a little snow will hit afterwards via the lake effect express, I am all too fearful for the dust on crust scenario. I understand these things can change, and i hope [-o< they do, but seriously, I'm trying to teach my fiance how to ski this next weekend, and she won't understand that the skiing, or at least the snow quality, will be better in the rain than the day afterwards. God has such a sense of humor. :evil:
 
Great post Rob.

I can't exactly ski anytime either, or I would have been at Gore today. (Reports were surprisingly good today.) I have some flexibility, but it's not unlimited. Like you, I'm a weather junkie. I try to make longer range guesses based on the weather data out there. One thing I do is constantly "take" vacation days, and sometimes I "give them back" if conditions don't pan out. I've skied 19 good days this year, 5 or 6 of those were excellent.

I still don't know how to access or read raw model data - I'm usually looking at interpreted data from about 5 or more sources (internet and local) and winging it. I took a gamble and didn't ski last week, hoping this week would be as good or better than last week. That probably was the wrong move.

Also like you I am teaching my wife to ski. Make sure it is fun. I know that's hard in a dust on crust scenario. I'm thinking Friday could be OK as it will be relatively warm. Maybe Friday's event will produce a few inches and help Saturday be OK. If I get two decent days out of it...

Still haven't made the decision to go or not. If the glades at Gore are listed as open tomorrow, I'll probably head up in the afternoon. since I haven't skied since Jan 26. My wife and daughter have decided to stay down here, so I'll be skiing solo, and would love to connect with anyone interested.

Harv
 
I heard that it rained today at Gore and now it is set up solid. This is second hand info though, so I cannot yet confirm it's truth, but the person who told me this skinned up Hickory in the rain today while his friends skied at Gore. I will get a first-hand report on Gore tmrw from the ski patrol. If the glades freeze up, they may not be open.

I skied today on my land. When I started it was above freezing and the snow was wet and gloppy and stuck to my skis. I went in to put some F4 on my bases. By the time I went back out the temp dropped 10 degrees and everything was setting up. I broke more trail and it was actually better with the colder temps. I was able to ski in the woods in places I could usually not ski with 4" of snow this season, but since the snow was so dense and wet it made for a very nice base. I'm sure my tracks will be set solid tmrw and will be treacherously fast. Maybe Friday they will soften and it looks like the cycle will repeat.

I have been working on a plan to ski the Adks this weekend, either WF, Gore or BC, but thus far, I have yet to hear of good conditions and the weather forecast is not very promising.

Now I'm thinking about sticking around here and going to our local Chili-fest and getting drunk instead...it will be a lot cheaper than driving north to ski ice. I'm saving my ski dollars for when it is good. The Wx said maybe in March. :x
 
Hey Sharon, as my east coast ski buddy Bobby often says: "Sometimes you get to eat the bear, and sometimes the bear eats you."

I hope your weather cooperates soon so you guys can make some turns before long.
 
BEautiful packed powder/powder turns tonight in the Great White North. \:D/

Ottawa got maybe 10cm of snow and only snow.
 
Sharon,

I heard some limited reports from Gore and WF. At WF the report was that it never rained above the midstation, and it drizzled at the bottom. The reports from Gore were sketchy, sounded like good skiing, but the details were thin.

It would really make a difference to me if you could post what you learn before noon. Like you, I'm trying to decide what to do.

Thanks.

Mark
 
Forecast for monday are now calling for really intense rain up to and north of tremblant. This is brutal, absolutely brutal. :cry: At least I'm going to lake placid, where we should be able to watch curling indoors.

gfs_slp_102s.gif
 
None of this bodes well, but keep in mind that a lot of storms have been screwed up royally 24 to 48 hours out this year and we are still about 72 to 96 hours out on this storm.

If the models are still showing this by Friday evening/Saturday morning though, I will agree that things are looking really bad then...

-Craig
 
Query to folks up north -- how's it looking around Quebec City (Le Massif, Mont Saint Anne)? I'll be there M - F there next week and sure hope it's far enough north to be snow not rain but don't know how the coastal climate would affect things. The Environment Canada web page is predicting rain and a high of 45F in Quebec City this Monday. If that holds, can I expect the same up the at the ski hills? And am I right to think MSA is better than Le Massif in those conditions for altitude reasons?
 
ts01":1no4qoz4 said:
Query to folks up north -- how's it looking around Quebec City (Le Massif, Mont Saint Anne)? .....predicting rain and a high of 45F in Quebec City this Monday. If that holds, can I expect the same up the at the ski hills? And am I right to think MSA is better than Le Massif in those conditions for altitude reasons?
Click to expand...

Hi TS01
I'm going up there tonight for the weekend. I looked up the weather forcast for MSA & Baie-st-Paul wich is closest to le Massif. They are calling for min-13 to max+4 degrees celcius on monday at baie-st-Paul, it could fall as snow or rain. No precision so far.
As far as altitude le Massif is slightly higher but with more vertical so you end up lower down at the base lodge than MSA.

BUT, considering the micro climat that holds clouds up there longer because of the St-Laurence and for some reason keep the temps down lower too, I would definetly go for MASSIF. You might be in for a big dump without the crowds.

Plus, you can drive in the summit lodge and ski from there. Go to the ''Camp boule express'' chair lift where you can ski the top portion of the mountain and stay out of the crap down below in worse case scenario. There are some excellent glades and even backcountry near that side.

Or you could choose the ''Maillard express quad'' that has a mid station and lots of tree skiing and steep skiing.

But then again,I'm not a local, i've just been going there every year for the last 8 or 10. I just find that every time we drive up and past MSA, the snow banks get bigger and bigger as you approch Le Massif.

I gess I'm sold on Le Massif and hope to explore the backcountry there. I will try telemark for the first time this week-end, hope I do OK.

Good Luck and I wish you a BIG DUMP!!! Here's the trail map.

http://www.lemassif.com/medias/trailmap ... pistes.pdf


JP
 
I had the dubious pleasure of skiing Le Massif after about 12 hours of rain in March 2003. The bottom 500 vertical near the river was very sticky snow on a thinner base. The rest was decent spring conditions, at least on the groomers.

Judging by the 195 inches season to date snowfall at St. Anne, I suspect coverage is very good at these areas now.

If this dire forecast (unlike the similar one for Feb. 5) comes to pass, these areas probably will ski better than most of the East.
 
Thanks for the info.

Jeepster -- What's the website where you're finding weather info for Bai St Paul and MSA? Good luck trying tele turns - I started tele skiing this year and am loving it but bringing only alpine for the Quebec trip due to space limitations. Here's a good site for basic tele instruction: http://www.telemarktips.com/Lesson.htm

Tony - that gives me good reason to hope at least these places will be spared. So far Le Massif is around 240" ytd - even more than MSA! So if it's slush, at least it'll be deep slush. Unfortunately I waxed everything last weekend with super cold wax since the outlook then was for subzero temps -- it'll be interesting to see how Swix CH4 handles in rain.
 
ts01":3me1c7j3 said:
Jeepster -- What's the website where you're finding weather info for Bai St Paul and MSA?
Click to expand...

I've been real busy and didn't check the upcoming forecast.

Environment Canada weather website / Quebec section.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/forecast ... html?id=QC

I wouldn't be too worried. I remember skiing in powder a few years ago on the North side of Ste-Anne in late April while it was pouring rain in the parking lot on the Southside (couldn't find the TR).

ts01":3me1c7j3 said:
Tony - that gives me good reason to hope at least these places will be spared. So far Le Massif is around 240" ytd - even more than MSA!
Click to expand...

There is also the fact that LeMassif numbers come from the summit, not sure where the MSA numbers are taken from. Regardless, coverage is amazing locally in Ottawa (plus there is so much snow in my backyard), so I can just imagine what it is on the slopes of Quebec City.
 
Patrick":2szrir18 said:
I wouldn't be too worried. I remember skiing in powder a few years ago on the North side of Ste-Anne in late April while it was pouring rain in the parking lot on the Southside (couldn't find the TR).
Click to expand...

Good to know. I'm still confused though for what's the better pick on a rainy day - from this and Tony's post it sounds like north side of MSA, but Jeepster's microclimate / St Lawrence is colder argument would point toward Le Massif.

Usually it's simple - higher altitude = better conditions. I just don't understand how the river coast affects things. (There's a lot I don't understand but I'll leave it at that!)
 
You guys down in NYC do not have to worry about snow in Quebec , even if it warms up it will probably snow again . Patrick is correct - tons of snow . This is the snow in my backyard in the suburbs of Montreal so you can imagine what it is like out on the Laurentian shield . Have been skiing powder every week since the first week of December.
 

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With the low going so far to our west. we don't get that much qpf(precip) . yes it does rain but not that much. It is just a fast moving cold front.
lets hope this remains true
 
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