See MarzNC’s Wolf Creek report just posted. There have been only two meaningful snow producing storms in the western US so far. Wolf Creek was the only area to get snow from both of them.
Northern VT: what a start
- Thread starter jasoncapecod
- Start date
Noted.
Underscoring the difference with Sutton ten miles away, which claims 64 inches to date mid-mountain. Do we still not have a reliable mid-mountain read on Jay Peak?
I assume not. Please read detail link from Powderfreak at the end of post #3 in this thread. The best we can do is my average of upper lower numbers at the end of the season. In season best guess is 90% of the upper that Jay reports.
AI put together a summary of stats, self-reported from the ski areas (virtually all seem reasonable), and only northern VT has had a huge start with the big winners in red. The rest of the Northeast can't claim remarkable snowfall; however, temps for snowmaking thus far have very good. As always, there's a big gap between the Jay Cloud and Smuggs/Stowe so talk amongst yourselves about that.
VT
Jay Peak: 188
Smuggs: 113
Stowe: 109
Burke: 43
Sugarbush: 65
MRG: 51
Mount Snow: 31
Magic: 24
NH
Cannon: 53
Attitash: 20
QC
Valinouet: 90
Mont Orford: 51
Sutton: 67
Tremblant: 68
Mont Sainte Anne: 52
Mont Edouard: 60
NY
Whiteface: 66
Snow Ridge: 62
Holiday Valley: 62
Gore: 17
Plattekill: 24
Belleayre: 21
Hunter: 14
Peek n Peak: 48
ME
Sugarloaf: 24
Sunday River: 24
PA
Camelback: 13
jasoncapecod
Well-known member
i'm sorry but you have to question Jay. An 80 inch diff between Stowe and them? Yeah i get the micro climate thing, but i still think Jay is full of it.
We've seen the pix and clips of waist- to chest-deep snow so no question that it's been a monster early season there; however, as far as statistical accuracy, who knows.
jasoncapecod
Well-known member
i agree, but never underestimate the power of video editing
Strange Le Massif is only reporting 34 inches.
Relatively speaking Whiteface is doing as well as the Vermont areas at its latitude: Its 66 inches is 187% of normal, comparable to Stowe's 182%. Whiteface is 72% open, the most this early in the 18 years I've tracked it. Gore is the latitude of Killington, which is at 111%. That 16 inches looks suspicious. Harvey?
As for Jay, please refer to the the links in the last paragraph of post #3 in this thread. JSpin and Powderfreak know way more about northern Vermont's microclimates than any of us posting now. Given the extreme concentration of snowfall in northern Vermont over the past month, there's a possibility that Jay's microclimate advantages are disproportionately in effect. But I'd want one of those guys to support that hypothesis. Powderfreak did confirm that Jay's snow reporting methodology is half-assed even though he didn't think it was out of line in the long term.
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We all know that Jay gets the most snow of any lift-served ski area in the Northeast. Whether it's 130, 150, or 180 at this point doesn't ultimately matter unless you're trying to compare it to places out west -- and even for that question, who cares?
Some of us would like to know that in-season reported numbers resemble reality. When I'm fairly sure they don't, I'll stop using them.
As evidenced by this thread as well as the one from 2015, many eastern ski junkies do want to know the gory details of the local microclimates. I defer to JSpin (I've sent him an e-mail) and Powderfreak on those details.
You've had discussions with ski areas about their reporting. If you or Stuart haven't asked them how they arrive at their numbers, why don't you reach out to Jay Peak's President and General Manager Steve Wright since there are so many questions? He seemed like a straight shooter when Harv and I went there for our ski blog summit many moons ago.
I'm not the one asking the questions. You and Jason are. JSpin and Powderfreak addressed these questions in minute detail in 2015. Please read their posts, as they are far more knowledgeable than either Stuart or I am.
jasoncapecod
Well-known member
Maybe I’m just a cynic
But it is in their interest to inflate those numbers they use those numbers for marketing purposes you’d be a fool to believe that they’re right
In my opinion, the only accurate snowfall record is Mt Mansfield snow stake
Nws records that
But it is in their interest to inflate those numbers they use those numbers for marketing purposes you’d be a fool to believe that they’re right
In my opinion, the only accurate snowfall record is Mt Mansfield snow stake
Nws records that
For anyone preferring a capsule summary:
Jay Peak Snowfall: Forum Debate vs. Objective Records
1. What Objective Snowfall Data Shows
- Jay Peak consistently ranks among the snowiest ski areas in the Eastern U.S. Long-term averages are commonly cited in the ~308″–359″ range, depending on source. This is significantly higher than most other Vermont resorts (e.g., Stowe is often cited around ~220″).
- Regional context: Jay’s location near the Canadian border and exposure to northwest flow favors frequent upslope and orographic snow. From a climatological standpoint, Jay should be snowier than most other Green Mountain resorts.
- Extreme/historical totals: Jay has claimed very large seasonal totals in some years (e.g., 500″+ seasons). These figures are resort-reported totals, not standardized NOAA climate-station records.
- Official records: Vermont’s official 24-hour snowfall record is 42″ at Jay Peak (Feb 1995), verified by NOAA. This confirms Jay’s ability to produce extreme snowfall events, but within the limits of standardized measurement.
2. What the FirstTracksOnline Thread Was Arguing
JSpin’s contributions focus on topography and geography as reasons Jay Peak might actually get more snow than nearby mountains:
- Shadowing / Exposure
JSpin argues that Jay’s position relative to surrounding terrain could enhance snowfall — suggesting Jay isn’t simply an isolated peak but exposed to winds and moisture from multiple directions. - Orientation & Altitude
He points out that, compared with other northern Vermont summits (like Mt. Sutton), Jay’s orientation to storm tracks and its elevation play a role in snowfall differences. - Terminology Clarification
JSpin even revises his own terminology — preferring “exposure” to “isolation” — to better describe how Jay’s position on the Green Mountain spine interacts with storm flow.
Jay’s location, topography, and exposure to orographic lift make it reasonable that it gets significant snowfall relative to other nearby peaks — and that factors like wind direction and relief can materially affect totals.
Powderfreak’s Key Role (as referenced in the thread)
Powderfreak isn’t quoted directly in the pages we can see, but he’s mentioned as someone who has already analyzed similar issues — like the Mansfield Stake undercounting mystery — and would be a good person to weigh in on snow measurement credibility. That implies:
- Powderfreak’s reputation in the community is as someone who critically examines snow totals and measurement methods.
- His perspective is invoked as a model of thorough, data-oriented analysis — not just anecdotal opinion.
Skeptical Counterpoints in the Thread
Even though JSpin offers explanations for why Jay could get big snow totals based on geography and storm behavior, other posters (especially Admin) argue:- The reported summit total may not be reliably measured at all because the summit is extremely windy and hard to measure.
- A big discrepancy between base and summit figures this season was out of character compared to historical ratios.
3. Resort Totals vs. Official Climate Records
Resort-reported snowfall
Resorts often combine multiple measurement locations, manual observations, and summit estimates. These numbers are useful for skier comparison but are not standardized.
NOAA / official records
Official climate records are based on fixed instruments and strict protocols. These are the numbers used for climate extremes and official rankings. Resort summit totals generally do not qualify.
Gridded and satellite products
NOAA gridded snowfall analyses provide regional context but are still not equivalent to a permanent summit gauge.
4. What Can Be Concluded
Jay Peak really does get a lot of snow.
Its average snowfall is among the highest in the eastern U.S., confirmed by multiple resort and independent sources.
High seasonal totals (e.g., in 2014-15) are plausible.
Given storm tracks and orographic effects that winter, it is credible that Jay Peak saw heavy snowfall — potentially more than most Lower 48 mountains. (This matches regional snowfall patterns from 2014-15, though precise comparative rankings are tricky without a full climate inventory.)
Resort totals aren’t the same as official climate station measurements.
Resort reported snowfall can be higher than official station data because resorts combine multiple measurement points, summit estimates, and internal conventions. That’s why skeptics in the thread questioned whether a “most in the Lower 48” claim was valid as a scientific comparison.
Official extreme records still primarily come from standardized stations, not resort summit totals.
For example, the biggest official station-verified 24-hour snowfall record in Vermont was 42″ at Jay.
That was the Mansfield Stake. JSpin and Powderfreak conclusively proved why its canister measuring snow would systematically understate and essentially ignore any storm total over two feet. I believe there is little dispute that Stowe and Smuggs average close to 300 inches (I have 296 for Stowe).
Powderfreak said this about Jay's reporting:
Jay also collects a lower number, which I get at the end of the season and average with the upper number. So yes Jay does not have a fixed snow plot like most areas including Stowe and Sugarbush for example. Wind probably prevents measuring very high up, as at Mammoth or Bachelor. The reported number by gut feeling is overstated relative to its competitors and my best guess is by about 10% long term. My long term number for Jay is 320, which seems to be about what Vermont locals would expect relative to Stowe and Smuggs.
Again, I have e-mailed JSpin to ask specifically about this year.
Thank you, that was the answer to my question in post #31 but instead you went high dudgeon about rereading the 2015 thread.
In post #23 I wrote:
berkshireskier
Active member
Unfortunately, we are getting a major warm up tonight (Thursday, Dec. 18) into tomorrow, Friday, Dec. 19 , in the northeast. It may spike into the low 50's in southern NE into the 40's in northern NE and Eastern Quebec, with a lot of rain and flood watches have been posted. It may not wipe out all of the ski bases in the northeast but it will hurt quite a bit. It is supposed to turn colder again over the weekend, so snowmaking can resume and maybe some snow next week. It's too bad because we've a fairly long stretch of cold weather along with some natural snow.
I’ve seen that rain forecast for New England. I do not expect it to wipe out ski bases but we can expect some temporary run closures after a rain/freeze.
jasoncapecod
Well-known member
It will get close to 60 in southern New England
Up north t storms and very high winds
Above 4k ft winds will gust to 80