I tried reposting the July Accuweather map here, but it didn't work. To me, it's pretty close to what happened. And from what I heard about Quebec on my two trips, it wasn't a question of overly warm temps, just a lack of snow.
Snow Snorkels for New Jersey this winter?
- Thread starter Bluebird Day
- Start date
I had that October map (actually there were several) online over the weekend, will try to find it tonight. But the narrative part, that El Nino would dissipate, is consistent with his October call for a dry Southwest.
For the record, along with most easterners, I've always guffawed at the Inaccuweather long-range forecasts and the false-alarm maps. I was just wondering how the July map seemed to be relatively accurate nationwide and spot-on with where the precipitation blocking would send the snow in the east. That said, the December map is top-to-bottom wrong.
And while everyone was cautiously optimistic with the late February Catskills storm call, they were the only ones that one week beforehand came out with both guns blazing and predicted preposterous amounts of snow, electricity outages, etc.
And while everyone was cautiously optimistic with the late February Catskills storm call, they were the only ones that one week beforehand came out with both guns blazing and predicted preposterous amounts of snow, electricity outages, etc.
I found the map in james' original post and included it in my analysis above.
The entire link is here: http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/Meteom ... recast.asp
In fairness, while it is from Accuweather it is probably not from Joe Bastardi. The URL's for the maps imply it's another Accuweather guy, Henry Margusity.
The entire link is here: http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/Meteom ... recast.asp
In fairness, while it is from Accuweather it is probably not from Joe Bastardi. The URL's for the maps imply it's another Accuweather guy, Henry Margusity.
riverc0il
New member
I think the strengthening of the El Nino was what really busted NoNE's winter. Everything was going okay right up until the first week of January where a pair of areas got over three feet and many resorts got one to two feet. After that, it was pretty much all over for big storms excepting one more thumping in February that was some of the heaviest and densest stuff I have ever skied in. MASH got nailed and the Catskills got nailed. But Jay barely has more than 250" which puts Jay the same as some of NH's best years and well below average (Saddleback got in the 230s! Almost as much as Jay!). Burke got something like 110" which is almost half of their annual average. Jay got a total of 3" in MarchTony Crocker":eeqxe2la said:
HELLO!!! Cannon reported in with an under average 165" but over 20% of that fell in a two day period and almost a foot of it fell and melted before they even opened.Very mild El Nino's seem to get the job done but we simply got slaughtered in northern New England (slaughtered in the wrong way). Just way too much El Nino with those southern tracks without cold air. It seemed like every storm had the potential to be a big one and then slid of the coast.
Bastardi's Map:
Statboy":mi1jenlp said:They called for severe drought in the Southwest with "very little snow in the mountains." Results?
:^o #-o
Mammoth 148%
SoCal 123%
Arizona 139%
Brian Head 137%
Taos 122%
Best region in North America this season.
The most favorable part of the October map was Montana/Wyoming/far northern Colorado. Results?
Whitefish 60% when it closed April 4
Bridger 92% when it closed April 4
Targhee 90%
Jackson 76% when it closed April 4
Steamboat 77%
I'm not sure why we should give any credibility to the July forecast when its revision in October was so inaccurate.
I do think Riverc0il is right about the El Nino trend driving the revision. JUN/JUL = .897, JUL/AUG = .978, AUG/SEP = .754. So Accuweather projected in October that El Nino was on a decreasing trend. Instead we got .999, 1.039, 1,085, 1.157, 1.502, 1.383 for the next 6 months.
With regard to El Nino and the Northeast, it's a mild negative to the NVT snowbelt and no discernable relevance elsewhere.
When I redo stats this summer I may look at all the months where MEI >1.000 (El Nino) or <-1.000 (La Nina) as another means of identifying sensitive areas. This is commonly done at the seasonal level but has some problems:
1) For many areas the number of whole seasons of data significantly El Nino or La Nina is too small.
2) There are also some seasons where it's significant for part but not all of the season.
I do think Riverc0il is right about the El Nino trend driving the revision. JUN/JUL = .897, JUL/AUG = .978, AUG/SEP = .754. So Accuweather projected in October that El Nino was on a decreasing trend. Instead we got .999, 1.039, 1,085, 1.157, 1.502, 1.383 for the next 6 months.
With regard to El Nino and the Northeast, it's a mild negative to the NVT snowbelt and no discernable relevance elsewhere.
When I redo stats this summer I may look at all the months where MEI >1.000 (El Nino) or <-1.000 (La Nina) as another means of identifying sensitive areas. This is commonly done at the seasonal level but has some problems:
1) For many areas the number of whole seasons of data significantly El Nino or La Nina is too small.
2) There are also some seasons where it's significant for part but not all of the season.
Like I said - I know it's mostly a crap shoot.
But you posted Margusity's map. That one I posted is Bastardi's.
Just because they work for the same company doesn't mean they are the same person.
It's interesting to me that the eastern half of Henry and Joe's maps are almost the same and the western halves are almost exact opposites.
My original point was that - whether science or voodoo - some prominent long range forecasts for the East were reasonably accurate this year including NWS and Joe Bastardi's. Your post shows that Henry Margusity's map was also accurate for the East.
You're right about El Nino. Many forecasters were calling for a moderate effect that would decrease to mild.
But you posted Margusity's map. That one I posted is Bastardi's.
Just because they work for the same company doesn't mean they are the same person.
It's interesting to me that the eastern half of Henry and Joe's maps are almost the same and the western halves are almost exact opposites.
My original point was that - whether science or voodoo - some prominent long range forecasts for the East were reasonably accurate this year including NWS and Joe Bastardi's. Your post shows that Henry Margusity's map was also accurate for the East.
You're right about El Nino. Many forecasters were calling for a moderate effect that would decrease to mild.
My point is that it's voodoo. Sometimes crapshooters get lucky. We don't know whether the difference in the maps was due to different forecasters or due to one map being done in July and the other one in October. But Bastardi was talking about a "fading El Nino" in July, and the temporary dip in October would have reinforced that opinion.
IMHO they were all guessing. With regard to El Nino it historically persists wery well from July to January and tends to dissipate during the northern spring. A prediction in October that El Nino would dissipate by mid-winter is going out on a limb somewhat.
I posted a historical analysis of moderate El Ninos to bestskiweather.com on November 28:
http://www.bestskiweather.com/powder_fo ... predictor/
Although the actual El Nino strength for 2009-10 will come out out higher than any of the 8 moderate El Nino seasons in that post, the 2009-10 snowfalls by region are not that different from the averages of those 8 seasons. PNW will be better, US Northern Rockies and Northern and Central Colorado much worse, the other 5 regions quite similar. Not that it was a prediction; you can see how much variation there is among those 8 seasons.
IMHO they were all guessing. With regard to El Nino it historically persists wery well from July to January and tends to dissipate during the northern spring. A prediction in October that El Nino would dissipate by mid-winter is going out on a limb somewhat.
I posted a historical analysis of moderate El Ninos to bestskiweather.com on November 28:
http://www.bestskiweather.com/powder_fo ... predictor/
Although the actual El Nino strength for 2009-10 will come out out higher than any of the 8 moderate El Nino seasons in that post, the 2009-10 snowfalls by region are not that different from the averages of those 8 seasons. PNW will be better, US Northern Rockies and Northern and Central Colorado much worse, the other 5 regions quite similar. Not that it was a prediction; you can see how much variation there is among those 8 seasons.
It appears that Joe Bastardi is among the heretics regarding AGW: http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastard ... ccuweather
Joe is going against the dogma of most Wxers (inferring that the ice sheet isn't receding), thus he's being a heretic.Harvey44":1w6zoy2a said:
It helps us allocate our environmental protection resources more wisely.Harvey44":31yeu05r said:
Please explain. I can't figure it out.
So CO2 is not a pollutant.
Breathing is ok. We don't need plants or need to worry about deforestation as long as what replaces the removed trees doesn't create pollution.
What are the high CO2 producing, low polluting activities that we should increase?
More Natural Gas less Coal and Oil?
These are sincere questions. How specifically do we alter our course if GW doesn't exist?
So CO2 is not a pollutant.
Breathing is ok. We don't need plants or need to worry about deforestation as long as what replaces the removed trees doesn't create pollution.
What are the high CO2 producing, low polluting activities that we should increase?
More Natural Gas less Coal and Oil?
These are sincere questions. How specifically do we alter our course if GW doesn't exist?
jasoncapecod
Well-known member
Harv, 7th grade science..Photosynthesis...C02 +photosynthesis = sugar +02
the plant cells then use the sugar for respiration
the plant cells then use the sugar for respiration
It's a matter of cost/benefit analysis. More resources for the basic stuff, like continuing to clean up air and water pollution that directly affects people's health. Also issues like deforestation and health of the oceans that have more certain harmful effects other than how much CO2 is produced. Spending money foolishly is not good for the economy and will undermine legitimate environmental concerns in the future if so perceived by voters and politicians.
There is some overlap between CO2 reduction and other environmental issues, but not all. As alluded to by jasoncapecod increased CO2 helps agriculture/food production. This prompts people like David Archibald who think we are headed for significant cooling to advocate "full speed ahead" on atmospheric CO2 to offset expected stress upon agriculture.
I do not share the fervent beliefs of either David Archibald or Al Gore. Moderate and not radical measures seem appropriate in view of the current level of uncertainty in the science. There's a chance the AGW people are right, but it's a small one (<10%) IMHO.
Tony Crocker":1r7t3i44 said:
While those who spend to disprove AGW may or may not be correct, I'm not sure their goal is to get us to allocate environmental resources more wisely. To me it feels like ... those vested in the status quo, are trying to prevent change.
I'm guilty of the same in reverse. I'm acting like it is a factor, (without a real clue), because if it is, then a massive rethinking in our energy policy is mandatory.
IF we can't ever prove it one way or the other then the question becomes .... which is the bigger mistake - acting like GW doesn't exist when it does, or acting like it does exist when it doesn't.
Bluebird Day
New member
I am so glad that the thread I started in October is still living... also, that the Accuweather prediction I posted was right on....
I made it out West three times this winter and had epic conditions every time. We got into Jackson Hole in early February just after a week-long dump of 5'. I skied a pair of Rossi 7S (191cm) and they were the greatest skis I've ever been on... I am buying a pair for the East and West. This was a great year out West and in NJ/PA \
/ .....not so much for New England :-({|= . Now I am focused on fishing.
I made it out West three times this winter and had epic conditions every time. We got into Jackson Hole in early February just after a week-long dump of 5'. I skied a pair of Rossi 7S (191cm) and they were the greatest skis I've ever been on... I am buying a pair for the East and West. This was a great year out West and in NJ/PA \
/ .....not so much for New England :-({|= . Now I am focused on fishing.
You were extremely lucky with that one. Jackson had a very poor year on both the front and back end and you hit the narrow window of when it was good.BluebirdDay":2dq2wfqo said:
With the 5' of powder I'm guessing that's the Rossi S7. Patrick probably still has the 7S around from his racing days. :lol:BluebirdDay":2dq2wfqo said:
Below average overall, and in a practical sense worse than that since so much of Utah and Colorado's snow came very late.BluebirdDay":2dq2wfqo said:
This logic is known as the "precautionary principle," and is a sound argument for excess "insurance" spending on preventing a catastrophic outcome. Often used with respect to national defense. In both cases "how much" depends upon many of the specific details.Harvey44":2dq2wfqo said: