The Good and the Bad News

powderfreak

New member
The snow worked out a little better than planned at the lower elevations today...I'm surprised there were so many 3" or greater amounts in generally valley locations. Most resorts should be reporting a general 3-7" tomorrow morning. That's pretty good news. C'mon 2007-2008, keep surprising us.

Here's my list for tonight...pay attention to #3 for longer term interests.

1) Friday night and Saturday's event looks like a moderate snowfall with amounts of 4-7" in the Green Mtns from SB/MRG northward and eastward (1-4" Adirondacks and BTV). An isolated higher amount is still possible just north of the sleet mixing line, which I still think will be in the vicinity of Glens Falls-Rutland-Lebanon. I think I posted earlier this week that MRG/SB region looks like the bullseye and I'm sticking with that...but man is this a tough call with sleet/freezing rain not far away. Just an FYI, the NWS has included sleet all the way to northern Vermont. This very well may be correct but I just don't see the warm air penetrating that far north. All these mixed precipitation events are starting to make me pull my hair out. South of the mixing line I laid out above, anywhere from 1-5" can be expected with a topping of sleet or ice.

For those outside of Vermont, that 4-7" band will stretch across the northern half of NH and ME including areas like Cannon, Wildcat, and Sugarloaf.

2) Sunday Night and Monday's system is still a big question mark. Does the surface low get captured enough to hug the coast to some degree? European says yes with a moderate snow event...GFS is the exact opposite and is almost partly cloudy as the low moves eastward off the mid-Atlantic coast. The NAM is with the GFS. I can't deny the American models and will forecast some light accumulating snow on Monday as the upper level trough swings through...but the possibility for something more is there.

3) The good news is that we've got some snowfall over the next 4 days and then an arctic surge with sub-zero nights and teens during the day. There are some indications of persistent upslope snowfall as this arctic air pours in on Tuesday and Wednesday. This could add several inches of fluffy snow across all upslope favored areas. Dry and cold on Thurs/Fri.

Bad news is that we are going to warm up big time starting Saturday January 5th. Big time and for at least a week. The models continue to show ugly, ugly heights and 850mb temperatures of up to +10C (50F!), possibly into northern New England. 50F at summit level is trouble and would mean a 60F+ day at BTV is not out of the question later in the week towards the 12th. We will average well above average from the 5th through the 12th and if there is a silver lining in this, its that its a mild/dry pattern not a mild/wet pattern. This is our January thaw and it might feel more like late March or early April during the later part of that week. One other saving grace is very cold air in far northern Canada which could keep low level cool air in the north country under an inversion as strong 850mb SW winds warm the upper elevations.

I don't want to sound like doomsday but prepare for a more serious thaw...maybe even enjoy a few warm, sunny days like they are spring days. At least we've got a snowpack that isn't isothermal so we'll keep something around. The cold still looks to return later in January...though I've got a feeling that'll be delayed. But it will come back.

Enjoy whatever happens because a day in the mountains is still twice as good as a day anywhere else.

-Scott
 
Thanks for the update Scott.

It was snowing pretty hard with total accumulation of approx 10cm during the day today West of Ottawa. We supposed to get another 5cm overnight + 5-10cm tomorrow night.
 
i'd take 50+ temps and corn to 20's and no new snow any day, looks like spring skiing for my b-day week if the forecast holds true. nice to have a base also.
get the warm wax ready!
rog
 
powderfreak":n7r2vj2u said:
Enjoy whatever happens because a day in the mountains is still twice as good as a day anywhere else.
If November and December hadn't been so good, I might beg to differ. But at a 70% powder day ratio at the end of December (perhaps pushing into the 80 percentile range by the time the warm stuff hits??), a little Spring Corn skiing in January is not phasing me. Bases seem ample to handle an extended thaw although 50s at the summits is worrisome. Here's hoping for another freak end of the season like last year after the mid-season sets us back slightly.
 
i'd take 50+ temps and corn to 20's and no new snow any day, looks like spring skiing for my b-day week if the forecast holds true. nice to have a base also.
get the warm wax ready!

I like the glass half-full attitude!

Though I gotta say...20 degrees is good snowmaking weather...50 degrees is going to hurt the snowpack. I do like spring conditions too, so I'll take advantage of it.

I just hope we get snows again by Jan 18th, because I'm bring a group of 30 people to the Adks that weekend for xc, bc and resort skiing (Gore). Last year the same group went up during MLK weekend and there was no snow on the ground and we had an ice storm. We are hoping for better conditions. It's 3 weeks away...we'll see what happens. In the meantime, I'm headed to VT to take advantage of this snow while we got it.
 
Knew I could count on you, powderfreak! Been scouring the web for info on what's going to happen this weekend, and figured I needed to check here to confirm. I think I saw the Sunday-Monday storm will now produce a pretty decent snow event up north?

Sucks about the thaw, but hopefully winter comes back with a vengeance.
 
We have to respect powderfreak's reports given his track record. But how high a probability would he assign to a prediction for Jan. 5-12 made on Dec. 27?

I know out here storm predictions made 10 days out pan out maybe 50% of the time at best, considering gross underestimates like when 3 inches predicted turns out to be 37 as well as the busts.

I do note that Scott's prediction is for temperature, not precipitation. Are temperature predictions more reliable?
 
There are some indications of persistent upslope snowfall as this arctic air pours in on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Thank you oh Freaky One
icon_bowdown2.gif


Exactly the days we will be in Placid for the first "real mountain" trip of the year.
 
that's what i'm talkin bout! the rock could be prime for summit to car runs on both sides a few days into that jan thaw. bring it on. 4200' vert runs here we come. why go west.
rog
 
icelanticskier":1eif1n3o said:
the rock could be prime for summit to car runs on both sides a few days into that jan thaw.
I thought the autoroad was closed until May?

PS. I believe a few weeks ago you mentioned you had an outing on the Rockpile, I am sure that a few of us would have like to read some info on that trip (or any others you have there). :D
 
Patrick":2xbgbntl said:
icelanticskier":2xbgbntl said:
the rock could be prime for summit to car runs on both sides a few days into that jan thaw.
I thought the autoroad was closed until May?

He means top to bottom runs because there is snow all the way to the base, not car lapping runs. I was confused at first too.

Also, although the eastside looks good to go, the westside is still looking very thin, almost every storm this season has been followed by strong east winds. Perfect for Tucks and GoS but horrible for the westside. The Great Gulf might has some pretty good options though.
 
ah, the autoroad. i'd like em to bring back the heliski operation they had a few decades back. a friend of mine from the cape was a wildcat instructor and guide for the heliski thang, interesting stories. shortlived.

my forays on mt washington are frequent but, no big trips thus far, just mostly treeline down and poking around. once the underlying naughty layers decide to play nice i'll be getting up high for some pow skiing in more esoteric places and will be sure to report. good snow can almost always be found somewhere up there especilly when the resorts are played.

rog
 
awf170":3a5rrajr said:
Patrick":3a5rrajr said:
icelanticskier":3a5rrajr said:
the rock could be prime for summit to car runs on both sides a few days into that jan thaw.
I thought the autoroad was closed until May?

He means top to bottom runs because there is snow all the way to the base, not car lapping runs. I was confused at first too.

#-o

Thanks for clearing that up. I knew that the autoroad was closed, but there was something that maybe I didn't understand.



icelanticskier":3a5rrajr said:
ah, the autoroad. i'd like em to bring back the heliski operation they had a few decades back. a friend of mine from the cape was a wildcat instructor and guide for the heliski thang, interesting stories. shortlived.

There was also the Cog Ski Trains proposal from the 80s (which I have their beautiful poster laminated at home).

A question, did the heli operation actually took off for how many seasons? Chic Chocs also had an heli operations, but only lasted for 1-2 seasons in the mid 80s.
 
the heli thing only lasted a part of a season i think and only a handful of days, i do need to talk to russ for more detailed info. they flew from eiyher the wildcat parking lot or great glen.
oh, for awf170, east winds load the westside terrain-monroe brook, kings, franklin slides and windscour/hammer east side-tucks, gos, hunt, crossload jefferson beach, gunbarrels/oaks, some aspects great gulf. we love easterlies on the west side in the appropriate places.
patrick, i think i saw you skiing wallyworld, i mean the ravine last memorial day with a woman, i was with my dog. an unusually quiet day in there with great snow.
rog
 
Check this out...valid January 9 - January 13. Warm. This is flat out
crazy that it is forecasting +16C to +18C departures from normal at 850mb
(4.5-5K feet in elevation). It looks like its predicting actuals of +4 to
+6C (low to mid 40's) at our summit heights as an average for those days.

GFS850mbDepartures.gif


Should we start making sacrifices? Don't start with the messenger....

-Scott
 
Thanks for the heads up on this one as have few days off now so will try to make the best of it. One thing I have noticed with all the climate change is that the typical January thaw now lasts longer with the temperatures reaching record highs. This forecasted continuous warm period for an extended period of time will have a serious impact on the snow depth. Heard on NOAA radio this morning that the stake at Mansfield still holding up at 52 inches.
 
ahhh! spring! remember jan 95'? big thaw. sunday river had 120 trails open and within a few days they were down to 6 trails. the summit of mount washington didn't dip below 32 degrees for 9 days straight. jan 18th i stood atop the rock in leather and a long sleeve t shirt. tuckerman's that march looked like mid june.
we'll be alright though. it'll all work out.
at least new england winters are truly entertaining, which is one of the many reasons i don't live out west anymore. too foofy and cute. ya can always grab a flight anyway.
rog
 
icelanticskier":2gcer8oe said:
patrick, i think i saw you skiing wallyworld, i mean the ravine last memorial day with a woman, i was with my dog. an unusually quiet day in there with great snow.

If my wife read this, she is going to start asking questions. I didn't now you went to Tux in May??? Who is this woman??? :lol:
I hope that woman was good looking at least? :shock:

Sorry to disappoint you, but unless your celebrating Memorial Day on June 10th, it wasn't me. :lol: The woman with me in June was my friend SuperNat. :lol:
 
patrick, thanx for reminding me. i was also there june 10th with my girlfriend and dog. snow was amazing with close to 500 vert still available and better snow than memo day. we may have seen you two on way up.
rog
 
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