Weather Forecasts

T

Twisted

New member
My weather obsession here in Salt Lake has become somewhat out of control. I find myself looking at a combination of 10 different websites and getting mostly the same data from each. So, does anyone have any good sources for long term forecasts and maybe a good explanation of what some of the more technical weather terms mean?

I hear people talking about troughs and fronts and I have a vague idea of what that actually is and means but i'd love to know more.

I also hear people talk about storms being "lined up" in the pacific. How exactly do you know that?

I've looked at the google earth overlays and the satellite radar views and i'm no wiser.
 
dude - i know where you're coming from. i never used to care about the weather at all until i moved to the mountains. now i check the environment canada site 5 times a day and i'm always watching their satellite videos. i even started keeping my own weather diary 3 years ago...maybe i've said too much now...

i know some of the forecasters who work up here and they've pointed me to some really detailed websites, but unfortunately i think you need a degree in the stuff to understand it. but they did tell me that they can only accurately forecast at most 3 days in advance. anything beyond that is really just chucking darts in the dark.
 
I studied meteorology for 2 years in college before I decided it was way to much work for very little reward. Though during those two years I did learn an incredible amount about the weather and how it is forecasted. Basically I’m just like you, I have about 10 different sources for the weather and I match them up with one another and see who basically has the best track record.

What I would suggest is that you read the National Weather Services forecast discussions. The only discussions you really need to read are the ones that are posted between 2 and 4 am and the one posted somewhere around 3:30 pm. These are the discussions that have new computer model information that helps them put together the long term forecasts. The updates the weather services puts out around 9:30 am and 10 pm are discussions which usually discuss weather events that are likely to occur during the short term meaning 1-3 day range. Another nice feature of these discussion are the words and abbreviations that are highlighted in blue. If you don’t know what these words mean simply click on them and a definition is provided. Here is the link to this afternoons forecast discussion http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/forecasts/displ ... lc&pil=afd

If you know a little bit more about weather you can review the computer models that the NWS uses to put out their forecasts http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/
The GFS model is used by the NWS to produce their long term forecast, they also use the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting, ECMWF along with other computer models to forecast in the 4-16 day range. I personally only look at the 0Z and 12Z forecasts as these are the only ones which receive new information from weather sensors and observations posts around the world. Right now the GFS is having a very difficult time past hour 150 but I still find it interesting to watch the progress of storms when they actually pan out.

If you have any specific questions I can do my best to answer them if I know the answer. Here are the links to the weather sites I find to be the most accurate
http://www.utahskiweather.com/discussions.php
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/slc/snow/mtnwx/ ... cottonwood
Finally there is http://www.bestskiweather.com/ , now this is a pay service and it’s not always that accurate for our region even though the head forecaster would have you believe he is almost never wrong, but it is a great site to learn a ton about the weather and how weather is forecast. I have found that in certain situations last year they simply looked at the models and spit out exactly what the models are saying and it was just a little frustrating because I can do that. I’ve found them to be extremely accurate in the North East but last winter wasn’t their best performance in Wasatch. That being said I’ll still purchase a subscription come November 17 when the go live again as the site is a ton of fun if your into winter weather.
 
He got his meteorology degree in VT and I believe he grew up skiing at Stowe and still skis there today. He is fantastic at forecasting upslope events in VT and he usually nails the accumulations with those clipper type systems. Often when the NWS puts up a snow advisory for these upslope events with something in the 3-6 inch range he often forecasts certain resorts like, stowe, jay, mad river and sugarbush much more accurately, most of the time these resorts see upwords of a 12inches +!
As to be expected he has a little tougher time forecasting those Nor'easters a few days out but then again who doesn't?

I know last winter he was down in Florida for a while. His site will be up and running in a couple of days I spoke with the person who runs the site and it should be rocking in a few. So keep your eyes out.
 
Patrick":1vgyng40 said:
Now that you mentioned it, wonder whatever happened to him. :roll:
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And I care why???

mbaydala":1vgyng40 said:
He is fantastic at forecasting upslope events in VT and he usually nails the accumulations with those clipper type systems.
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There are many who would take issue with that statement.

mbaydala":1vgyng40 said:
I spoke with the person who runs the site and it should be rocking in a few. So keep your eyes out.
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Thanks for the tip :roll: :
http://www.firsttracksonline.com/boards ... php?t=2450
 
mbaydala":1qevf4dl said:
I know last winter he was down in Florida for a while. His site will be up and running in a couple of days I spoke with the person who runs the site and it should be rocking in a few. So keep your eyes out.
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That sounds like our Admin (okay, not last year in FL), maybe they are the same person? :lol: :wink:

Lawyers will be watching. :shock: BWAHAHAHAHA
 
Looks like I opened a can of worms here, I think I may just stay out of this one. One thing you guys may find interesting though, last year I used to email him directly on conditions in the Wasatch especially after a forecast was either a bust or underdone. I would usually send him pictures of the conditions so he could see for himself how he missed. Never did I ask for any credit or anything of the sort even though he did use the pictures a couple of times on his webpage. But after reading your last post I understand why he actually gave me credit in one of his blogs in early March. I sent him pictures of the massive avalanche in Scotts bowl and the Peak at PC and he actually gave me credit for sending the information in the blog. At the time I thought it was really weird but now I see why he did so. Maybe he learned his lesson? Who knows? Either way lets hope this Monday trough turns into at least some decent accumulating snow so we can get this season started!
 
mbaydala":1dbn4uuk said:
lets hope this Monday trough turns into at least some decent accumulating snow so we can get this season started!
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Hear, hear!!
 
Oh, I nearly forgot to mention:

mbaydala":3p5a4wna said:
http://www.utahskiweather.com/discussions.php
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Utah Ski Weather's primary forecaster drops in here from time to time by the handle "gwest".
 
It's as if i heard my name being called...
I was just checking around to see how you all are doing waiting for winter to start.
For bestskiweather.com and Jim, I'm probably not going to touch that subject much. However, one good thing is that I have a friend who's a great guy and is very knowledgeable, new prof at Lyndon State, Jay Shafer. I think he said he and (mainly) his students would be helping Jim out with his site some this year. I think making posts to the blog.

For weather, and learning about weather, discussions are excellent. Utahskiweather.com i obviously endorse :) , but the NWS are also excellent, ..and a very helpful tool is the glossary http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
It translates many of the terms and abbreviations.
For forecasts, the 2 best options by far are the NWS's cottonwood forecast and utahskiweather.com. When I check the NWS forecast, they're usually in pretty good agreement with ours, sometimes they tend to forecast a bit more snow. Check out both, ...a consensus forecast is usually the best forecast. The NWS digital forecasts, found here http://www.avalanche.org/~uac/weather.html in the 3 and 7-day tables in my experience are quite bad. As are most other snow forecast sites, some of which just directly dump out computer model output for that grid point in the model. Computer models do pretty well in areas of non-complex terrain in most cases these days, however, over complex terrain a lot of human input is still needed.

Latest GFS run still shows the mon/tues trough as a lot of cold air, but not much moisture. I guess at least the air will be plenty cold for last minute snowmaking..
If you want to check out some of the model graphics we use to forecast, they're here:
GFS
http://www.met.utah.edu/cgi-bin/jimstee ... ainGFS.cgi
NAM
http://www.met.utah.edu/cgi-bin/jimstee ... ainNAM.cgi

Next to 'synoptic 4-panel' select 180hr loop (for GFS) 84hr loop (for NAM) (if the whole model run has come in). the bottom 2 panels are good to look at. the bottom left shows you RH through the averaged over the lower half of the atmosphere, and 10,000ft winds, the bottom right shows you precip. The models dont "see" the mountains that well, so you have to do some interpretting yourself, but that's where the some of the human part comes in. the top 2 panels show upper level troughs/ridges and jet stream. Those are a little more difficult to explain in plain english. The model runs come in 4 times a day. The model times at the bottom are a little tough to decode. There's the date (YYMMDD), then the 2 numbers before 'F' tell you when the model was started in UTC time (00=5pm, 06=11pm, 12=5am, 18=11am), and the numbers after 'F' tell you how many hours out from then the forecast is for. Anyway, if you have questions, let me know. We're also always please to get feedback/questions at utahskiweather.
 
Don't forget to get out there and do the Native American snow-dance, and pry to Skadi, She is the goddess of winter in Norse mythology. :lol:
 
mikesathome":3b741k5p said:
Don't forget to get out there and do the Native American snow-dance, and pry to Skadi, She is the goddess of winter in Norse mythology. :lol:
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I thought that was Ullr?
 
Skadi is indeed the goddess of winter. Ullr is the god of the hunt. Since he lived in northern lands and since the hunt occurred after the harvest, he was adept at winter travel, including the use of wooden slats on his feet that eventually evolved into skis. Thus, Ullr is more properly the god of skiing, although he is often incorrectly referred to as the Norse god of winter.

From a weather perspective, we're probably better off appealing to Skadi rather than Ullr.

Edited to add:
Oh, and don't piss her off as she's also the goddess of Justice, Vengeance, and Righteous Anger! She is the deity who delivers the sentence upon Loki to be bound underground with a serpent dripping poison upon his face in payment for his crimes.

From a Norse mythology page:
He was the son of Sif, a rather mysterious goddess herself, by an unknown father and therefore the stepson of Thor. Married to Skadi the giant goddess of winter who left her former husband Njord, the god of the winds, sea & fire for him, it was also said he spent only his winters with Skidi, while his summers were spent with Hel.
 
Twisted":hrrxw2u3 said:
My weather obsession here in Salt Lake has become somewhat out of control. I find myself looking at a combination of 10 different websites and getting mostly the same data from each.
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mark":hrrxw2u3 said:
dude - i know where you're coming from. i never used to care about the weather at all until i moved to the mountains. now i check the environment canada site 5 times a day...
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I find that after moving here (2 miles from the mouth of LCC) I'm far less obsessed about the weather than when I lived in central CT. There I had to pay very close attention to northeastern ski weather. I would have to commit to lodging by Tuesday or Wednesday for the upcoming weekend, try to get out of work early on Friday, plan on a 4 - 7 hr drive Friday evening and again Sunday afternoon, and hope that the weather and conditions would be worth the several hundred dollars the weekend was going to cost.

In contrast, here, we'll get mountain snow, sometimes more than less, and even when it's not great by local standards, it's generally better than New England. The weather report on the nightly news and the discussion on the UAC site generally suffices. No need to get the same info repeatedly from different sources (which really boil down to 2 or 3 primary sources when you peel back the covers).
 
For bestskiweather.com and Jim, I'm probably not going to touch that subject much. However, one good thing is that I have a friend who's a great guy and is very knowledgeable, new prof at Lyndon State, Jay Shafer. I think he said he and (mainly) his students would be helping Jim out with his site some this year. I think making posts to the blog.
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Jim does delegate some material on that site. As he is based in the Northeast he can occasionally use some assistance on the details of western ski areas. Due to my extensive experience I have occasionally provided those corrections :wink: . From time to time Jim uses my season progress reports with reference to my website and a modest retainer for the season.

This season Jim has requested that I blog directly to his site. We are currently working out the arrangements.

I also skied about 3 hours with Jim the day I was at Stowe in 2003.

With regard to the limitations of computer models and the required "human touch" of a local forecaster to do the best job on mountain weather, I totally agree. Larry Schick is quite boastful about what he can do in forecasting PNW weather. But he doesn't think that translates to doing much on a national basis. He said he could probably do California OK (he grew up in SoCal and his first TV job was in Monterey), but for anything in the Rockies he thinks he would be starting from scratch. And he's not interested in the East (sorry).

So it makes sense that Jim would do better in the Northeast than elsewhere. But of course FTO has its own Vermont forecaster :wink: .
 
I can totally realate to the weather obsession that happens after moving into the mountains. When I was living in Huntington Beach I didn't pay too much attention. "Oh, it's going to be 72 and sunny again today." Now that I live in the Uinta mountains, I even have my own weather station. :lol:
You can check it out here: My Weather Station
 
Thanks for all the good resources. There were several there that are very interesting, I particularly like the NWS glossary of terms - it helps me get my head around the weather techno babble.

Now I can sit comfortably at home and wait patiently with all these weather websites until there's enough snow for a resort to open :)
 
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