Western Weather 2017-18 and Later
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jamesdeluxe
Administrator
I forgot about Tony's Nov 1 to Apr 30 timeline (for all but late operations like Mammoth, Snowbird, and A-Basin), which is reasonable and corresponds more or less to how Harv counts.
I added Gore to my Northeast page last year as he has enough complete months to be credible. Gore's common month snowfall is 75% correlated to Killington's, so I use that to get the 146 inch Nov-Apr long term average because Harv's data is only Dec.-Mar.
Actually that's just when it snows. I'll record anything.
Are you saying somehow my data is helping you or being included?
jamesdeluxe
Administrator
He'll just add one of these * with a disclaimer (unofficial, offsite source).
tseeb
Well-known member
More snow in Tahoe the last couple of days with Palisades Tahoe reporting 4" Wed and 6" Tues for a new record of 710" @8K. Note this includes and 1" from Oct 22 and 13" from Nov 2-3 and they opened. Previous record 707" in 2016-17.
Some other reports include:
Heavenly 4" on Tues when I'd planned to ski there, but didn't think my wife wanted her return to skiing to include morning temps in low teens with snow and wind. High in town on Tues was 32 and today may only get to 39.
Kirkwood 2" Tues/1" Wed where I was going to go on Mon, but now looking at 6 or 7 days later.
Sierra-at-Tahoe 4" Tues/1" Wed
Sugar Bowl 5" Tues/5" Wed and 792" season total
Diamond Peak 5" Tues
Mt Rose 8" Tues/2" Wed
Some other reports include:
Heavenly 4" on Tues when I'd planned to ski there, but didn't think my wife wanted her return to skiing to include morning temps in low teens with snow and wind. High in town on Tues was 32 and today may only get to 39.
Kirkwood 2" Tues/1" Wed where I was going to go on Mon, but now looking at 6 or 7 days later.
Sierra-at-Tahoe 4" Tues/1" Wed
Sugar Bowl 5" Tues/5" Wed and 792" season total
Diamond Peak 5" Tues
Mt Rose 8" Tues/2" Wed
Incorrrect. Palisades had 783 inches in 2010-11.
tseeb
Well-known member
https://www.palisadestahoe.com/mountain-information/snowfall-tracker says 678 inches in 2010-11.
Are you counting May/June snow they didn't? My records show I started the season (I retired during it in Jan) with 3 powder days before Thanksgiving and ended it skiing 6-12" new on Memorial Day Sunday.
By month
I would have taken this info from the daily Snowfall Tracker at the end of the season. The 56 inches in May is the main discrepancy, but some of the other months are different from what's on the Snowfall Tracker now.
| 10-11 | 118.00 | 162.00 | 15.00 | 149.00 | 241.00 | 42.00 | 56.00 | 783.00 |
@Tony Crocker
@Weathertoski
And any other weather gurus.
I was about to pull the trigger on a Mountain Collective pass for winter 23/24. The hope is to do an approx 4 week long road trip style holiday in the last half of March and first half of April 2024. Canada would be the preferred destination as it’s been quite some time and there are some bucket list hills in interior BC that I have my eye on.
But then I have seen references to a looming strong El Niño. I believe that generally means less cold and snow for PNW and Canada and more winter storms for southern USA. So if we stay flexible the Mountain Collective could still work.
My question is how European weather is affected by El Niño? After our recent powder days in Oregon I have come to the conclusion that the North American model of a fully controlled ski area suits us best but if Europe is going to be a better bet for snow I guess it will be a consideration.
Unrelated to weather I guess we could buy flights across the Pacific when they go on sale and then wait closer to the holiday to buy a domestic flight from LA or San Fran to whichever region is having a good winter. Are these internal flights (or flights to Vancouver or Calgary) relatively inexpensive if bought say a month prior to departure?
And at that time of year I’m guessing lodging will be easy to find at fairly short notice?
Sorry for the rambling post and thanks in advance.
@Weathertoski
And any other weather gurus.
I was about to pull the trigger on a Mountain Collective pass for winter 23/24. The hope is to do an approx 4 week long road trip style holiday in the last half of March and first half of April 2024. Canada would be the preferred destination as it’s been quite some time and there are some bucket list hills in interior BC that I have my eye on.
But then I have seen references to a looming strong El Niño. I believe that generally means less cold and snow for PNW and Canada and more winter storms for southern USA. So if we stay flexible the Mountain Collective could still work.
My question is how European weather is affected by El Niño? After our recent powder days in Oregon I have come to the conclusion that the North American model of a fully controlled ski area suits us best but if Europe is going to be a better bet for snow I guess it will be a consideration.
Unrelated to weather I guess we could buy flights across the Pacific when they go on sale and then wait closer to the holiday to buy a domestic flight from LA or San Fran to whichever region is having a good winter. Are these internal flights (or flights to Vancouver or Calgary) relatively inexpensive if bought say a month prior to departure?
And at that time of year I’m guessing lodging will be easy to find at fairly short notice?
Sorry for the rambling post and thanks in advance.
El Niño: People love to make advance forecasts, but the status of El Niño/La Niña is not predictable this early for next winter. It tends to stabilize about July/August and is then likely to last into the upcoming winter.
I do not believe El Niño means anything for the Alps. It also doesn’t mean anything for most of Utah and Colorado.
Spring is not a great time for western Canada outside of Whistler and Banff and perhaps Kicking Horse and Panorama. The other places all have low altitude and/or sunny exposure. Better to make that trip in February.
For late March and April you know the optimal places: Mammoth, Bachelor, Utah’s Cottonwood Canyons, most of Colorado.
I do not believe El Niño means anything for the Alps. It also doesn’t mean anything for most of Utah and Colorado.
Spring is not a great time for western Canada outside of Whistler and Banff and perhaps Kicking Horse and Panorama. The other places all have low altitude and/or sunny exposure. Better to make that trip in February.
For late March and April you know the optimal places: Mammoth, Bachelor, Utah’s Cottonwood Canyons, most of Colorado.
jamesdeluxe
Administrator
You mentioned that earlier -- did you have problems in the Alps skiing into what you believed to be sketchy avalanche terrain?
Not problems as such. Just the doubt that I didn’t know what may be over the next crest - particularly when visibility is not ideal. (Which was often).
I guess staying in one area and getting to know the terrain would mitigate the doubt.
tseeb
Well-known member
4" new at Heavenly on May 1. After reaching high 90s in my part of San Jose last Thurs (when I was skiing Palisades Tahoe), it sprinkled off and on most of the day here on May 1 and I don't think it got out of the 50s. Heavenly (open daily), China Peak and Dodge Ridge (both only open weekends) close next Sunday, May 7.
tseeb
Well-known member
Is any place in WV open? Heavenly now reports 10" in last 24 hours and 15" in last 48.
Friend who lives in Tahoe Key and skied yesterday said nobody is there.
Friend who lives in Tahoe Key and skied yesterday said nobody is there.
jimk
Active member
No, all ski areas in WV closed a month or more ago. But I'm told many skinners and trekkers got out for the unprecedented opportunity to ski there in May.
@Tony Crocker
What part of your bestsnow websites points me to snowfall by month in any particular area? Just curious to see how these things look for different areas but mainly northern areas vs southern.
Thanks.
What part of your bestsnow websites points me to snowfall by month in any particular area? Just curious to see how these things look for different areas but mainly northern areas vs southern.
Thanks.
Nothing that is online vs. the raw data. Why? Variation by month is not significant vs. overall month to month volatility. All of the Season Analyses referenced here show monthly snowfall in that season for a sample of areas in each region. From those you see ample demonstration of the volatility.
The factors important for advance booking early season are:
1) High snowfall
2) Consistent snowfall
3) Topography, how much snow is needed to cover terrain at a a specific area.
4) Snowmaking. Yes this is more important in the Northeast and some Euro places like the Dolomites, but in the big destination resorts of western North America rarely is snowmaking used on more than about 1/4 of ski acreage.
The factors important for late season are:
1) Altitude
2) Exposure
3) Total snowpack accumulated. Why is this only 3rd? Mammoth is still good in April in below average snowfall seasons, while Jackson will suck in March even with a monster snowpack if it's warm the week you are there.
Long term average snowfall by month?
Very even in Utah, Colorado and the Alps.
Nov-Jan higher than later months in western Canada
Dec-Jan higher than other months in PacNW and US northern Rockies
Jan-Feb higher than other months in California.
"Higher than other months" means 10-15% higher. That's not useful info when the standard deviations of monthly snowfall are 37% at the most consistent areas like Targhee, 45-55% at most areas in North America, 50-70% in the Alps and 75% in California.
The only ways to increase powder odds are to chase it on 3-5 day forecasts, pay up for cat/heli skiing or go to Japan in January.