Winter Weather Event Mon-Wed Forecast

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Its not important enough to publish a full blown weather forecast although this came pretty close to being one. But for the east coast weather watchers here's my forecast/ideas on Mon-Wed:

We have an extremely tricky forecast for the next 72 hours. The first 24
hours isn't that difficult. Cold. Temps should be below zero in most
mountain valleys with everywhere else in the single digits.

Clouds will increase on Monday with snow breaking out across central NY
early in the day and progressing into the Capital District of Albany,
Catskills, Berkshires, and Southern Greens by afternoon. Snow will also
reach into the Adirondacks and then into the northern Greens at night.
Snowfall by Monday evening will be 1-3 inches across the Catskills,
Adirondacks, Berkshires, and southern Greens. Snow will continue lightly
overnight on Monday. Precip will take a break in the south as first batch
moves northward into the northern Greens. Look for 1-3 inches by Tuesday
morning in the northern 'dacks and Greens from the first batch of
precipitation.

Then the real show gets going. Strong lift and moisture inflow from the
Gulf and Atlantic will result in the main batch of precip moving in during
Tuesday morning. This strong high pressure system over us now bringing
the cold air will be key to preventing plain rain for the majority of this
storm system. Look for sleet/freezing rain in the Catskills and
Berkshires to change to plain rain early on Tuesday after some minor icing
on top of the few inches of snow on Monday. As precipitation moves into
the north country of NY and VT it will start in the form of snow. It will
change to sleet and freezing rain first in the lower Champlain Valley,
then northern Champlain Valley and Adirondacks by noon on Tuesday. Snow
mixed with sleet will continue over the Central and Northern Green
Mountains through Tuesday afternoon with the chance for 2-6 inches of
snow/sleet depending on how much falls as sleet vs. snow. As far as
snowfall goes the real winner will probably be in northern NH or Maine
with 4-8 possible total there (See forecast below).

By the time darkness comes on Tuesday, all precip will have changed over
to sleet/freezing rain or rain. Sleet and Freezing rain will hang on in
the Green Mountains much longer than in the Adirondacks and Champlain
Valley based on the movement of the low pressure system and associated
warm low level winds. The Northeast Kingdom of Vermont could see some
significant icing Tuesday night on top of the snowfall. Precipitation
will change to all rain by 8pm on Tuesday eveywhere but the northeast
kingdom. Rain shouldn't be too destructive as temps shouldn't get above
35-40.

Basic Forecast:
Catskills,Berkshires,Southern VT:
Monday: Light snow. Accumulations 1-3 inches.
Monday Night: Light snow changing to sleet and freezing rain.
Tuesday: Sleet/Freezing rain changing to rain by 8am in Catskills and 11am
in southern VT. Light Icing possible.

Adirondacks:
Monday: Light snow in the afternoon and evening. 1-2 inches accumulations.
Monday Night: Light snow tapers off late. Another inch or so accumulation.
Tuesday: Snow and Sleet breaking out again. Mixing with and changing to
freezing rain and rain by 1pm then all rain by 3pm. Accumulations of 1-2
inches followed by light icing.

Green Mountains from Killington North:
Monday: Cloudy with light snow possible by evening. Up to an inch near
Killington.
Monday Night: Light Snow. Accumulations of another 1-2 inches with the
most in the south.
Tuesday: Snow. Changing to Sleet and Freezing rain in the afternoon.
Accumulations of 2-6 inches depending on how early sleet mixes in.
Changing to rain by evening.

White Mountains and Sunday River/Sugarloaf region:
Monday: Becoming cloudy.
Monday Night: Light Snow possible late. A dusting to an inch possible.
Tuesday: Snow breaking out by noon. Snow and Sleet in the afternoon
possibly changing to freezing rain late. Accumulations of 3-6 inches.
Tuesday Night: Snow, Sleet, Freezing rain changing to rain after
midnight. Another 1-2 inches possible.

-Scott Braaten

ps: As a note, I might be a little high on the snow forecasts across the
north on Monday and Monday night as you'll notice the NWS does not have
any accums and only a chance of snow for the Adirondacks and Green
Mountains. I'm worried that this cold airmass might be too dry to support
accumulating snows and only flurries...however, with that said, looking at
latest model guidance I'm inclined to go with slightly more snow with the
first batch of precip than the NWS has in their forecasts.
 
lets hope your right because late next week even though its too far away is not looking to good with the rain and high temps in the 40's.

wow i hope things change and we either start to get a colder air mass with more moisture or a dry cold air mass because i don't like these air masses that if it were 10 degrees colder we would get nice snow.
 
excellent :x .. looks like 4 hour 130 mile ride for me on tuesday night :roll: :evil: :evil: :evil: .. thanks for the heads up
 
Sharon":1zu9cpat said:
According to intellicast radar, it's been snowing here all morning.
http://tinyurl.com/ocmu

I have yet to see a flake.

The air mass present overhead is incredibly dry, thanks to the strong high pressure system that brought us our cold air. Accordingly, it really is snowing there...it's just evaporating before it reaches the ground. As the moisture increases and the dewpoints rise accordingly, you'll see it start to reach the ground, but it's going to be a very slow process -- it'll start slowly.
 
The first flakes started drifting down to ground level about 30 minutes ago here in Albany.
 
It's actually falling out of the sky now!!

Oh, BTW, Greek Peak made snow all weekend and continues to do so in preparation for a Dec 11th opening. They had good temps all weekend.
 
It was snowing to beat the band here 5 minutes ago. Although it has slowed up to light but steady snow now, a dusting is forming as the picture below just shot with my phone's camera shows.
 

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Looking even better around here now -- see below! However, being the season's first snowfall here, it's amateur hour on the roads. People are driving like freakin' idiots.
 

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About 3" now on the picnic tables outside.

(Ya know, I really need a life, if anyone's wondering what to get me for Christmas. :roll: )
 
(Ya know, I really need a life, if anyone's wondering what to get me for Christmas. Rolling Eyes )
(alt+q)

ummm, you ain't the only one who could use that for Xmas. My weekdays in the office have been quite slow. I don't even have a window to look out of, except for my computer monitor, which is like my window on the world. I sit here like a freak checking ski reports and planning my weekend, which is the only time when there's life to my life. The weekdays are just downtime which is spent dreaming and scheming about my weekends. Sometimes I wish work was busier so the weekdays would fly by so it would seem like no time until I hit the slopes. It is always very slow through the holidays.

In the meantime...it's stopped snowing here.
 
Admin":2tagmqix said:
(Ya know, I really need a life, if anyone's wondering what to get me for Christmas. :roll: )

Is this quote from the man who started a poll about me doing nothing at work and thinking about skiing on the weekend at Hunter?

Nice to see we're all peas from the same pod.
 
JimG.":29v0bpa4 said:
Is this quote from the man who started a poll about me doing nothing at work and thinking about skiing on the weekend at Hunter?

Hey! I resemble that remark!
 
Anonymous":27zs0h1y said:
Scott,
What about the event late in the weekend?

This one will also be interesting. Right now it depends on if the Alberta Clipper in the northern stream can phase with the southern stream energy. The GFS model has been putting a lot of emphasis on the northern stream energy but still strengthened it enough to give northern NY and northern New England a significant snowfall. The last couple days the European models (EURO and UKMET) have been showing coastal redevelopment with a strong low sitting near Cape Cod and moving into the Gulf of Maine which would be significant mountain snows. Only today, it looks like the Euro models have shifted and are now indicating a track like the last few storms...west of New England which would be another rain storm.

It'll be interesting to see how it plays out. Either way, this low is strong and this will be a major ticket as to what happens in the pattern and this low should at least temporarily turn the NAO negative and we should see a very cold airmass come down next week along with a few strong clippers.
 
i think its going to be a hit or miss even. its either gona be freezing rain or a nice snow event for K. I hope its snow though and i hope lots of it.

I heard that they are now trying to just get the easier trails open like over at snowshead etc and less snowmaking will be done on Killington peak and Skypeak.

More snow is always better so lets hope for it.
 
sbraaten":1r7wpvw7 said:
It'll be interesting to see how it plays out. Either way, this low is strong and this will be a major ticket as to what happens in the pattern and this low should at least temporarily turn the NAO negative and we should see a very cold airmass come down next week along with a few strong clippers.

This is what I'm looking to...seems like the first sustained shot of cold air of the season and it looks like it may last into the early or even middle part of January. Just hope it isn't like last season when it got so cold that storms wouldn't form in the NE.
 
i would rather have cold weather they this weather where if it were 5 degrees colder the rain would be snow. I do hear you though if it gets to cold the storms wont form but at least the snow guns can be out in full force and not have to deal with above freezing temps.
 
cibit":24xhcr1e said:
...I do hear you though if it gets to cold the storms wont form but at least the snow guns can be out in full force and not have to deal with above freezing temps.

You forgot the most important benefit.... there's nothing like a nice -25F day to thin the crowds out! I've never seen the place more empty with decent snow than on some of those midweek bone chillers last year. I don't mind wearing a face mask and coughing up $1 for hot-hands.
 
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