Eastern NoAm Weather 2008-09

According to the GFS there are a couple of upcoming storms where the snow line seems pretty far south. These storms look pretty large, looking about 5 days out. Afterwards, it should stay could for a while. Although I don't trust the GFS ten days out, it is showing slight snow showers christmas eve, and it is holding cold temps until around the 29th. Again, this is just my read of the gfs, and it isn't always correct but we'll see what happens.
 
Ok we all know that Henry Marguisity is a (pro-snow) maddog. Here's the call from ol Henry that has to be considered weather porn, but I'll take it:

Friday.jpg


Sunday.jpg


Dec 24.jpg
 
I have to say, I for one don't trust accuweather at all. I remember last year when the weather channel, and noaa forcasted a huge storm. Accuweather called for partly cloudy. We got a blizzard!!! Also this was like 3 days out.
 
jasoncapecod":2m00kkhf said:
marc you really love inaccuweather
we need to give you a crash course in reading the models
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Not really. It's just that crappuweather has lots of easy graphics to steal and they are ALWAYS calling for snow.

PLEASE teach me about the models.

:)
 
Harvey or anyone... maybe in the near future I can explain how to use the models or at least what to look for so you can get your own idea as to where these forecasts are coming from if that sounds interesting. Personally, as an avid skier and wx watcher because of skiing, learning to use the basic models is a huge step towards at least knowing where forecasts (be it NOAA, Accuweather, TWC, etc) are coming from. Models allow you to visualize the storm which in turn helps you plan where/when to go skiing...instead of basing that decision off Henry M's garbage at Accuweather, haha.

Yesterday at Stowe I wrecked my knee by slipping on ice under the pow...first doc I saw yesterday suspected torn ACL/MCL though wont know for sure till MRI tomorrow. At the very least, I cannot walk so I'm going to be playing armchair quarterback instead of skiing all the time. This should lead to a significant increase in weather forecasts and musings over the next several weeks. I have to admit I'm glad I have one hobby I really love that requires physical activity, while another hobby I love requires sitting at a computer.

-Scott
 
powderfreak":3kfixyou said:
Yesterday at Stowe I wrecked my knee by slipping on ice under the pow...first doc I saw yesterday suspected torn ACL/MCL though wont know for sure till MRI tomorrow.
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Bummer!! Hope he's wrong! Keep us in the loop.
 
Scott,

Got ice on that knee while you are sitting at your computer?

Again, sorry about that injury. I hope you heal up fast.

I am interested in hearing your take on the train of storms that we are on the way. I too have been perusing easternwx forum. Those weather weenies crack me up.
 
powderfreak":2kkjga5y said:
Harvey or anyone... maybe in the near future I can explain how to use the models or at least what to look for so you can get your own idea as to where these forecasts are coming from if that sounds interesting. Personally, as an avid skier and wx watcher because of skiing, learning to use the basic models is a huge step towards at least knowing where forecasts (be it NOAA, Accuweather, TWC, etc) are coming from. Models allow you to visualize the storm which in turn helps you plan where/when to go skiing...instead of basing that decision off Henry M's garbage at Accuweather, haha.

Yesterday at Stowe I wrecked my knee by slipping on ice under the pow...first doc I saw yesterday suspected torn ACL/MCL though wont know for sure till MRI tomorrow. At the very least, I cannot walk so I'm going to be playing armchair quarterback instead of skiing all the time. This should lead to a significant increase in weather forecasts and musings over the next several weeks. I have to admit I'm glad I have one hobby I really love that requires physical activity, while another hobby I love requires sitting at a computer.

-Scott
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I post a lot of Accuweather graphics because it's easy. For my own ski decisions I use a variety of sources. NWS, Accuweather, Weather.com, Eastern Wx, and Jason. I actually feel like I can interpolate the data well enough to make 3 day decisions on Gore...which let's face it...that's the business I'm in.

This time last year Scott was a bigtime help. It was the New Years storm. It was a breakthrough day for me...and I was able to snag it because I saw one of Scott reports at the right moment. We had no internet in the mountains then...I stopped into the local library in North Creek to use a computer.

What I do is primarily keep reading the NWS extended. By seeing the model flips and flops through they eyes of the guys in Albany...I feel like I can do pretty well estimating the impact on the southern Adks. I realize that weather.com is going to pick one model and give it to you. As long as you know that...you can adjust. Seems to me that whatever model weather.com uses is colder than some others. Or it may be my imagination.

Of course I'd love any help with the models. Would take a load off Jason as I PM him with my questions.

Scott - I am so bummed you are hurt. I'd be happy never hearing from you again if it meant you were out there, healthy, in the deep snow, on Mansfield.
 
Scott is a young and fit accomplished skier, like Adam's girlfriend Molly who blew out her ACL last December. Her ortho in South Lake Tahoe said she could ski last winter in a brace and have reconstruction surgery in the spring. She did very well in recovery and expects to resume skiing when she comes home from school next week.

So if Scott gets bad news from his ortho, he should ask if he can pursue the same program as Molly and maybe we'll still see some of his killer pics this season.
 
Thanks for the words, everyone. I got the MRI done yesterday and the news is very good (if not excellent). What I did was dislocated my patella (knee-cap) and tore a couple minor ligaments and tendons that hold the knee-cap in place. However, the major ACL and MCL are fine. I was told to treat this like a broken bone and that I can likely be back on skis around mid-February as long as I don't do anything stupid between then and now. I need to stay on crutches for a few weeks while I let the things that hold my knee-cap in place heal because its still a little loose. The doc warned that it would be fairly easy for me to dislocated it again if I do not let it properly heal.

So, the news is I'll be back on Mt Mansfield later this season but will have to watch from the sidelines for a while. I was prepared to not ski again until Nov 09 so I'm quite ecstatic about this dislocated patella, haha.

-Scott
 
powderfreak":yi3rjpkm said:
So, the news is I'll be back on Mt Mansfield later this season but will have to watch from the sidelines for a while.
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Good news indeed, but we'll miss seeing you in the Wasatch next month!
 
powderfreak":3qgim63f said:
Thanks for the words, everyone. I got the MRI done yesterday and the news is very good (if not excellent). What I did was dislocated my patella (knee-cap) and tore a couple minor ligaments and tendons that hold the knee-cap in place. However, the major ACL and MCL are fine. I was told to treat this like a broken bone and that I can likely be back on skis around mid-February as long as I don't do anything stupid between then and now. I need to stay on crutches for a few weeks while I let the things that hold my knee-cap in place heal because its still a little loose. The doc warned that it would be fairly easy for me to dislocated it again if I do not let it properly heal.

So, the news is I'll be back on Mt Mansfield later this season but will have to watch from the sidelines for a while. I was prepared to not ski again until Nov 09 so I'm quite ecstatic about this dislocated patella, haha.

-Scott
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Hi, Some time lurker here, especially for Powderfreaks weather reports! I thought I should post as I have dislocated my patella twice with some attendant MCL damage. Indeed its good news that the damage is minimal. Its very important to strengthen the opposite muscle to the direction the patella dislocated..mine dislocated outwards so I had to strengthen the VMO to hold things in place. They've probably prescribed a dose of phyical rehab. I usually ski with a brace, just in case, as post dislocation, ligaments tend to be a bit loose.

Get 'well' soon!

Meanwhile, weather roundup as of the morning for the 'east'....wildcat 10, cnnon 11, killington 18, mrg 13, even jay 10.
 
tig":29gnek6j said:
Hi, Some time lurker here, especially for Powderfreaks weather reports! I thought I should post
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Glad you did. Welcome to the spotlight, tig!
 
According to Noaa the christmas storm may end up being known as the christmas day massacre. It looks pretty bad, so make sure you get your turns in now, because after christmas it's going to be icy!
 
According to Noaa the christmas storm may end up being known as the christmas day massacre. It looks pretty bad, so make sure you get your turns in now, because after christmas it's going to be icy!
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unfortunately the boy speaks the truth
 
IIRC dislocated patella was Andrew Bynum's injury last January. They thought he would be out a month, but was out the rest of the NBA season and eventually needed surgery. So I'd recommend the rehab program and checking in periodically with the ortho to see that healing is on schedule.
 
Scott....(or anyone...Jason?)...any idea of when we may be back in business? As far out as NWS (Albany) goes it looks ugly.

As usual trying to keep plans as flexible as possible to get as much as possible. Oink.

EDIT: Just found this from Henry M:

... This morning I looked at the long range, and it it seems some blocking might start to show up by next weekend. The GFS NAO chart below shows the NAO tanking by this weekend. I have been watching the storm around the third which has my interest for what could be our first chance at a BIg Daddy storm. The GFS has been taking the storm back and forth between the eastern Great Lakes and the coast. The recent runs of the GFS have suggested the storm ends up along the coast. The EURO shows one center going up into the eastern lakes and a secondary developing off the coast of Virginia. I am sure that the next run of the EURO will show an even stronger storm along the coast....
 
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