South America 2026
- Thread starter ChrisC
- Start date
Wrong question. 2009 was the last overall above average season. There are threads here on FTO about most South America seasons since then, and probably a quarter of them had similar starts. The seasons that started strong were usually lean in July and later.
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Sounds great to me. How far does that extend inland? To the foothills of the Sierra?If you're looking to escape the heat, you could always visit San Francisco; it's generally cooler here than in the Nordic countries.
July in the city can require the heat to be on. Mine is ON this week!
(Note: I have never owned (or rented) in a primary residence with AC - window or otherwise)
Given the summer marine layer and typical weather patterns—where high interior pressure and heat brings in the cold Pacific air—highs are barely above 60°F and lows hover around 50°F. Inside buildings, our temperatures often stay in the low 60s without heating....
Basically, your life is governed by Fog Trackers:
Fog Today
Is it sunny at the beach? Check the latest fog conditions in the Bay Area with Fog Today.fog.today
Link
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Sometimes, you want to head inland to Walnut Creek or Mount Diablo for a hike, or venture north to Napa, St. Helena, Sonoma, or Santa Rosa—or even down to Silicon Valley—if you’re looking for 80–90°F summer temperatures.
Meanwhile, South Florida is all about tracking PM thunderstorms.
ChrisC
Well-known member
Ha, it doesn't. That marine layer is limited to a few square miles of microclimate specific to San Francisco and the immediate coast.
The rest of the Bay Area has entirely different patterns, and you really can't grasp the complexity until you’ve spent time here. You can find massive variations in weather within just a half-mile radius, heavily influenced by hills, mountains, and proximity to the water.
To give you an idea of the extremes, there’s often a 50°F temperature differential between downtown San Francisco and suburban Walnut Creek (Mt Diablo hike)—a distance of only 20 miles with almost no change in elevation.
In the city, there are neighborhoods (Sunset, Richmond) where you might not see the sun for weeks in the summer (red X). However, neighborhoods (Noe Valley, Potrero Hill, Bernal Heights, etc) on the lee side of peaks like Twin Peaks, Sutro, and Davidson are semi-protected, often seeing two to four times as much sun while remaining an easy commute to Silicon Valley or SFO (green square).
Ironically, in the Bay Area, waterfront real estate isn't the most desirable—people usually prefer the hills. The coastline/SF Bay is often plagued by fog, the cold Pacific, brackish water, and wetlands, and much of the waterfront in SF is built on landfill, which is a major seismic concern.
The foothills of the Sierra are mostly suburban sprawl for 40 miles from Sacramento to Auburn (I-80) or Placerville (50). To me, the foothills, while geographically well-located and forested, are not all that desirable. They are exurbs with great hiking and parks, but probably cost $100s in gas plus traffic to go anywhere: job, forest, shopping, etc.
This is the real reason why the drive to Tahoe almost always sucks. Sure, weather can impact the climbs/passes (as expected), but every single day of the week one needs to deal with the Sacramento Metro rush hour. Also, Tahoe's roads cannot really handle Saturday or major holiday traffic.
Yes, vacationers will say, "I visited for a week in February, and everything was great - no lines or crowds!" Yes, this is always true. Tahoe = Vermont crowd flows. No one is there midweek. And Reno Airport is a breeze. Go!
LA to Mammoth is likely an easier commute because one never hits traffic/gridlock once outside of LA, crosses 7,000-ft passes, or has minimum chain control.
SF Bay Area (9M people) is mostly forced to drive through Sacramento metro (2.5M). Imagine if one had to commute to Colorado front-range resorts: Denver (3.8M) and then drive through SLC (1.3M) to get to a crowded Breckenridge? That's Tahoe (Palisades, Northstar, Heavenly)
Note: Look at Tseeb's departure/arrival schedule for Tahoe. 3-5 AM is a common wake-up and/or departure time. And it's realistic/necessity. Alternatively, one can leave at 8/9 PM on Fridays to arrive at 12/1 AM to avoid traffic.
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tseeb
Well-known member
I cutoff most of reply from @ChrisC which I agree with although we are getting very off-topic for this thread. I live in a very warm part of San Jose, 50 miles S of SF but with 2K-almost 4K' elevation Santa Cruz mountains blocking cool air from ocean.
Weather.com San Jose monthly averages temps (last column is rainfall in inches and temps are taken ~10 miles closer to SF Bay than my house):
| Historical Monthly Avg | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| July | 82° | 59° | 0.01 |
| August | 83° | 60° | 0.03 |
| September | 81° | 58° | 0.07 |
30 miles south of San Jose, where official temp yesterday was 77 and 81 was predicted for today, Gilroy recorded 99 yesterday according to the local paper and 90 according to weather.com. Morgan Hill in between San Jose and Gilroy can get even warmer but both it and Gilroy usually benefit from cooling afternoon breezes that don't get into some parts of San Jose (or Los Gatos). And they can often get fog from Monterey Bay.
We have only run air conditioning a couple of times this year, for ~20 min before 4 PM when our power rates jump if we are going to be home and upstairs is approaching 80F. Then we move downstairs where it stays cool. We usually benefit from overnight cooling that starts before sunset and has included lows of 48 the last two Friday and 47 this AM.
I try to ski Kirkwood on my way to (and often from) Tahoe, even though I'm retired and don't usually share the road with Weekend Warriors. To get there for 9 AM opening means leaving home at 5-530. Going from San Jose to Kirkwood has the advantage, besides being only 175 miles (half non-freeway), that you are going against commute traffic and when passing through Stockton there is almost no traffic vs. Sacramento where there is traffic approaching and going through the city beginning not much after 6 AM. But a couple of miles before Kirkwood is the Carson Spur which often closes during and after storms as it's "one of the most active avalanche zones above a highway in North America". And https://dot.ca.gov/caltrans-near-me...avalanche-control-rehabilitation-project-sr88 includes "The Carson Pass & Spur produce more volume of snow on the highway than any other roadway in the bottom 48 states". Carson Pass, between Kirkwood and South Lake Tahoe, almost 8600' elevation and is the highest pass Caltrans tries to keep open in Winter. Closes less than the Spur.
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I’m also a sucker for encouraging forecasts (like this one from Corralco), and I missed skiing last summer waiting for more snow in the Andes before buying a ticket. This year I’ve booked a returnable mileage award Aug 24-Oct 6, likely I will go just to ski whatever man made groomed slopes are available at La Parva and Valle Nevado. Hope to ski with some of this group, or meetup apres. 2024 was great, likely the best season in 15 years?
Go now, you never know how many ski days you have left in your life. (Warren Miller rephrased?)
Go now, you never know how many ski days you have left in your life. (Warren Miller rephrased?)
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Patrick
Well-known member
This!!! I know there are many more ski years in my past than in my future.
If you wait for the ideal situation, you might be missing out, sometimes you have to take a risk and just go.
Snow data is very sketchy. In our South America threads I will erratically post Portillo season-to-date numbers. When I was at Portillo in 2007 Iooked up Henry Purcell and he provided me with 1970-2007 data averaging 254 inches. Here are the last dates in seasons I have looked up Portillo snowfall since 2011.
Portillo never opened during 2021, mostly due to COVID but I recall comments that the season was very bad like 2019. So we can say the 2023 and 2024 were similar to the prior average and it's possible that 2016 El Nino was close to average as well. But no clear cut above average seasons since 2009. The above applies to Valle Nevado and Las Lenas as well, but not necessarily to Chillan and Corralco with far different climatology.
In the years where the date above is in September, that was usually because the ski areas were about to close. Unlike North America or the Alps, significant storms after the spring equinox are rare. The "Santa Rosa" period in late August/early September is viewed as usually the last shot at a significant dump. The big exception was 2023 with big storms in the first half of September, which ChrisC chased on short notice.
We have been paying attention to South America here on FTO at least since my first trip with Extremely Canadian in 2005. But it's been mostly erratic and anecdotal. Only last week did I go through those threads to collect whenever I had posted Portillo season-to-date snowfall.
| Portillo | as of | |
| snow | date | |
| 2011 | 190 | Sep.8 |
| 2012 | 128 | Sep. 5 |
| 2013 | 208 | Sep. 8 |
| 2014 | 190 | Sep. 26 |
| 2019 | 48 | Aug. 8 |
| 2020 | 224 | Sep. 21 |
| 2022 | 163 | Sep. 11 |
| 2023 | 256 | Oct. 1 |
| 2024 | 261 | Oct. 19 |
| 2025 | 171 | Sep. 20 |
Portillo never opened during 2021, mostly due to COVID but I recall comments that the season was very bad like 2019. So we can say the 2023 and 2024 were similar to the prior average and it's possible that 2016 El Nino was close to average as well. But no clear cut above average seasons since 2009. The above applies to Valle Nevado and Las Lenas as well, but not necessarily to Chillan and Corralco with far different climatology.
In the years where the date above is in September, that was usually because the ski areas were about to close. Unlike North America or the Alps, significant storms after the spring equinox are rare. The "Santa Rosa" period in late August/early September is viewed as usually the last shot at a significant dump. The big exception was 2023 with big storms in the first half of September, which ChrisC chased on short notice.
We have been paying attention to South America here on FTO at least since my first trip with Extremely Canadian in 2005. But it's been mostly erratic and anecdotal. Only last week did I go through those threads to collect whenever I had posted Portillo season-to-date snowfall.
After my 2004 divorce I skied in the Southern Hemisphere the next three seasons.
??? That's a long trip, so plenty of time to chase where the best snow is, even if as far as Chillan/Corralco. Do not even think about booking lodging until immediately before arrival. If we had not committed to Valle Nevado lodging in 2007, we could have gone to Chillan where Patrick had just skied fresh snow.
Do not expect much if any lift service past mid-September. But if you are a backcountry skier, late September could be good for the volcanoes like Pucon.
says the person who has put off ANY skiing in the premier regions of the Northern Hemisphere January-March for 18 years!
Patrick
Well-known member
My statement didn't say go no matter what; but there is no way to be guaranteed of great conditions (traveling or driving on a day trip for great powder potential in the East just a few hours away from home).
On last year NZ trip, I bought my flight to Christchurch maybe 2-3 weeks prior and never booked anything ahead more 24h prior, if the weather is bad or going to shutdown the mountain, I'm going to move elsewhere. The same for the previous trips in the last 8 years. Once on location, I've been always booking lodging a few days at a time at the last minute, the exception of my first SA trip in 2007 and Las Lenas in 2009.
Flight YOW-YVR-SYD 23/25
Day in Sydney on Aug 25 before night flying to Christchurch.
Aug 26: drive to Methven
Aug 27: ski Hutt
Aug 28: weather moving in plus snow around QTown, so I decided to book and leave for QTown.
Aug 29: ski Coronet (new area)
Aug 30: Saturday pause for crowds and weather.
Aug 31: ski Remarks
Sep 1: ski Coronet
Sep 2: ski Cardrona - turned into a whiteout (left QTown for stay after skiing in Wanaka)
Sep 3: ski Treble Cone (favorite NZ area)
Sep 4: weather high wind shutting down, decided to return for Methven.
Sep 5: weather pause > big powder day on Saturday
Sep 6: Porters (avoiding Hutt on Saturday + powder day).
Sep 7-8: Hutt
Sep 9: Christchurch
Sep 10: flight back home.
My first trip to NZ in 2016 and many down days for weather to do some sightseeing.
Aug 22: Departure from Ottawa
Aug 23: day/night in Vancouver
Aug 23/25: Vancouver to Brisbane
Aug 25: day in Brisbane then flight to Auckland
Aug 26-27: Auckland and Rotorua
Aug 28-29: skiing Whakapapa/Turoa
Aug 30-Sep 2: Wellington, ferry, East coast, Christchurch, Dunedin then Milford Sound
Sep 3: ski Remarks
Sep 6, 8, 10: ski TC, Cardrona, Ohau, Hutt
Sightseeing around Qtown, Wanaka, West coast with Franz Josef Glacier and Fox Glacier
Sep 11: Christchurch, Banks Peninsula
Sep 12: plane Chirstchurch-Auckland. Auckland day and night
Sep 13: Plane to Brisbane day and night
Sep 14: Departure from Brisbane
Australian trips also include a few side trips prior or/and after the ski part.
2018: Melbourne, South coast to Sydney
2022: Sydney, Blue Mountains.
Flexibility and varied destinations. I would understand if I would repeat the same experience every year. The Europe skiing 2015 with my oldest included ski days in Zermatt, Saas Fee, Molltaler, Hintertux. Sightseeing: Zurich, Salzburg, Vienna, Innsbruck, Venice, Pula (Croatia), Slovenia, Munich, Neuschwanstein castle then train to Paris. With the first 3 trips: Paris, Britany, Normandy, Lyon, Nice
You need a time machine for that.Hell, I would go see INXS if possible...
Great memories from that 1987 show at the Verdun Auditorium.Not a good year from friend, Rainier in July doesn't look this bad usually.
tseeb
Well-known member
On Friday, after low of 47, my weather station had peak of 94. Saturday’s low was not as low and high was 88. Sunday was cloudy with more than usual humidity, less overnight cooling and my weather station had high of 107. Indoor temp was in lower 70s until after 5 when I came in from working outside so we did not run air. Will likely need to run it some this PM as clouds/humidity prevented usual overnight cooling with my weather station having low of 69.
I saved Friday’s temps page from Saturday’s paper. Note that SF has high of 63 while Moraga, just E of the Berkeley hills and less than 20 miles from SF was 88. Not that page says “Readings as of 3 p.m.” and sometimes the high can be later and that Gilroy has high of 99 which could be an error. Also see Half Moon Bay.
Back to South America. I saved this from post at sNOwbrains. 3+ meters would be nice. Anyone think places will get this much snow this week?
I saved Friday’s temps page from Saturday’s paper. Note that SF has high of 63 while Moraga, just E of the Berkeley hills and less than 20 miles from SF was 88. Not that page says “Readings as of 3 p.m.” and sometimes the high can be later and that Gilroy has high of 99 which could be an error. Also see Half Moon Bay.
Back to South America. I saved this from post at sNOwbrains. 3+ meters would be nice. Anyone think places will get this much snow this week?
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ChrisC
Well-known member
You did. You said, 'Take a risk and go.'
Again, the gaslighting and BS are high. And the advice is poor.
In my opinion, TODAY there is not a single ski resort in the Southern Hemisphere worth a $100 lift ticket (maybe Mt. Hutt). And no way in hell should a skier spend $1k on a plane ticket, and all the other $$$ - especially when we are almost halfway through the ski season.
The only area of interest is the Andes with its present forecast, and one can wait a week to see what happens - Who will get feet of snow? Who will get rain? They need 200-300 cm to get back to average.
Also, NZ and Australia might be beyond hope this season unless just interested in snowmaking, a few intermediate runs, and some rock-laden expert terrain. Simply running out of time/storm potential for good coverage ever to materialize on expert terrain.
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ChrisC
Well-known member
And this is not just directed at Patrick; it was becoming obvious last season around February 1st that Southwest Colorado/Taos would never accumulate enough snow to open its defining expert terrain. For Telluride, Silverton, Crested Butte, Taos, it was going to be a poor season. By March 1st and an expected heat wave, the expert season was effectively over.
I had an issue of trust/expert advice with the PeakRankings guys just pushing forward to a multi-thousand $$$ heli ski trip to Silverton and hiking/slackcountry trip to Telluride. This trip no longer existed, and conditions were simply sh-t/worst in decades. Again, they should have been deferred for a year, or moved to a location with comparable terrain and snow (Alta/Bird, Whistler, Banff, Revelstoke/Kicking Horse). Take some loss - relocate or defer.
I don't always subscribe to the Warren Miller ski trip platitude of "....you will just be one year older when you did." Nice thought. But watching dreams get crushed due to poor planning is eye-opening. Pissing away money is bothersome.
I had an issue of trust/expert advice with the PeakRankings guys just pushing forward to a multi-thousand $$$ heli ski trip to Silverton and hiking/slackcountry trip to Telluride. This trip no longer existed, and conditions were simply sh-t/worst in decades. Again, they should have been deferred for a year, or moved to a location with comparable terrain and snow (Alta/Bird, Whistler, Banff, Revelstoke/Kicking Horse). Take some loss - relocate or defer.
I don't always subscribe to the Warren Miller ski trip platitude of "....you will just be one year older when you did." Nice thought. But watching dreams get crushed due to poor planning is eye-opening. Pissing away money is bothersome.
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ChrisC
Well-known member
OK. Winter 2025 in New Zealand.
Assume New Zealand the least-worst place to continue The Streak, where money and snow conditions are not important variables in decision-making?
For a reality check, New Zealand's own public research institute, Earth Sciences New Zealand (ESNZ), declared the winter of 2025 "abysmal" - by September 4, 2025 - incredibly strong words for a government entity with a mission to drive economic growth through natural resources and responsible for the 1.7M skier days.
For a skier looking for an NZ bucket-list experience that sounds like a 'pass' from its government, it's simply not a good snow year.
And it was pretty obvious to any skier with Internet because it simply did not snow in NZ for almost all of July and August.
“The lack of snow was due to predominantly settled, dry conditions through much of July and August. Early-season storms in the northern half of the island also brought heavy rain rather than snow. This was especially felt in Nelson-Tasman, where damaging floods devastated the region back in June and July,” said Dr Conway.
"Mt Larkins near Queenstown... recorded moderately low snowfall with 71% of average winter totals,” said Dr Conway.
Earth Sciences New Zealand (ESNZ) is a major public research institute established to drive the country's economic growth and community resilience. Formed by the merger of GNS Science and NIWA, it focuses on sustainably maximizing natural resources, enhancing energy security, and protecting the nation from climate and environmental hazards
This year’s winter snow ‘abysmal’ for many
www.earthsciences.nz
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Yes. Weather dependent activities can go sideways on short notice, including expensive ones. There is a distinction for the case you know before you go that it will be bad, the PeakRankings Telluride trip being a good example. But I suspect that trip was like most cat/heli trips, dependent upon the operator to modify or pull the plug. I'm guessing the clients had fully paid in advance, as I had for my such example at Great Northern in 2005.
That was a valid critique of Patrick's 2016 trip, which was during the record worst ever season in Canterbury. I do not critique 2025 since Patrick was able to ski Mt. Hutt's expert terrain, which was closed for ice/unsafe conditions on both of my visits in 1982 and 2010.
Patrick
Well-known member
Canterbury was definitely the worst conditions of my 2016 NZ, but North Island and Qtown/Wanaka were better. We aren’t even going to talk the North Island for last year.
Yes, 3 out of 4 days on that terrain.
Plus one day with 50cm powday at Porters and 2 others in the steepest terrain at TC and Remarks.
ChrisC
Well-known member
Will Patrick modify his New Zealand plans this year if this possible 2-week atmospheric river hits South America?
I think he already stated he leans toward NZ/OZ. Probably will go to NZ.
But this might be the case where Northern Chile/Argentina will have received 300" of snow by August 1st, while it looks like almost everywhere in NZ/OZ will be under 50" - some worse. Curious to see if this snow result can change the decision.
Or South America on the no-fly/no-go list after cab incident? Like the current USA.
opensnow.com
(Yes, I would discount all of these numbers by 25-50%. I have yet to see any Euro/South America forecast exceed potential, but cannot provide you with a standard underperformance. If the historicals were at all accurate, one could calculate a 'discount' factor/percentage, and these models could be semi-instructive.)
New Zealand. (Australia is worse).
I think he already stated he leans toward NZ/OZ. Probably will go to NZ.
But this might be the case where Northern Chile/Argentina will have received 300" of snow by August 1st, while it looks like almost everywhere in NZ/OZ will be under 50" - some worse. Curious to see if this snow result can change the decision.
Or South America on the no-fly/no-go list after cab incident? Like the current USA.
Zero to Hero? | South America Daily Snow Forecast | OpenSnow
Well, the models have not only remained remarkably consistent for next week's storm over the last few days, but they have...
(Yes, I would discount all of these numbers by 25-50%. I have yet to see any Euro/South America forecast exceed potential, but cannot provide you with a standard underperformance. If the historicals were at all accurate, one could calculate a 'discount' factor/percentage, and these models could be semi-instructive.)
New Zealand. (Australia is worse).