Western Weather 2017-18 and Later

[jamesdeluxe]

It sure did up here in the PNW. Most of the action obviously stayed south of us.

Can't remember if we explained the back story earlier --

The "January drought" references a disagreement between Tony and the LCC crew (formerly well represented on FTO) in which the latter insisted from personal experience that if there's any period during which powder-hungry destination visitors should avoid travelling to the Wasatch, it's a three-week stretch in January with a high incidence of no snow. Of course, Tony had a battery of statistics to disprove their claim.

The Alta crew claimed that this was yet another case of someone who lived far away trying to tell locals "not to believe their lying eyes." Always entertaining as I had at least a handful of seasons in which I went to SLC in January and got skunked.

 

[Tony Crocker]

It sure did up here in the PNW. Most of the action obviously stayed south of us.

So far this is the most unusual feature of the 2022-23 ski season. The La Nina is still going strong though off its peak last summer. The Sierra and Utah have had huge seasons during La Nina before, notably in 2010-11.

During moderate to strong La Ninas, there has been no season under 102% in the PNW and no season under 96% in western Canada. As of end of January the PNW is at 86% and western Canada at 83%.

 

[EMSC]

Breck and Loveland are not above average.

The surprise is Breck IMO. Surrounded by places at least at and slightly above average all around them and I cant recall them reporting particularly low snowfall from any of the storms.

Loveland OTOH has been nearly skunked from several storms for completely unknown reasons. eg both Eldora and ABasin/Keystone reporting decent snowfalls and Loveland only getting 1-2" on multiple occasions. It's been weird for them for sure this year...

Long range continues to show relatively dry weather for a good chunk of the month.

Crossing my fingers that the PNW/Canada starts to pick up later in the month. I have trip to Fernie/Castle in early March....🤞

 

[Sbooker]

Impressive pics from Tahoe and Mammoth the last week or so. Mammoth and Squaw get to July 4 this year even without any more snow?

 

[Tony Crocker]

Mammoth for sure. Squaw/Palisades is lower and also takes a beating from sun because the highest slopes face east. Consequently, even though Palisades is overall one of the great expert mountains anywhere, most of its lift served expert terrain is done by the end of May even in huge years. Even Siberia closed mid-June in 2017, leaving just north facing 700 vertical Shirley Lake for July 4. Some of the steeps at the top of Mammoth are skiable to closing as in August 2017.

 

[Sbooker]

I have a friend going to Mammoth for a 5 day stay starting on April 2. He was doing the standard snow fretting thing when you’re travelling a long distance for a snow trip. “It’s still 3 weeks away and they might not get any more snow”. I confidently told him there would be plenty to slide on. Would be great to see him get snowed on as I have the two times I’ve been to Mammoth in early April.

 

[Tony Crocker]

“It’s still 3 weeks away and they might not get any more snow”.

He might actually want that. How often has the entire mountain been open this season due to wind, visibility or avalanche risk? Mammoth is very similar to the Alps in that regard.

 

[Sbooker]

He might actually want that. How often has the entire mountain been open this season due to wind, visibility or avalanche risk? Mammoth is very similar to the Alps in that regard.

He and his partner have only ever skied at Mt Hotham in Victoria and a few days at Coronet Peak in NZ. They will get that same ‘blown away’ feeling that all Aussies get when skiing on a big mountain for the first time.

 

[Tony Crocker]

New Zealand has the same weather issues as Mammoth and the Alps, though Coronet is probably not as wind exposed as most NZ areas.

 

[ChrisC]

Mammoth fast food drive-thru

 

[jamesdeluxe]

He was doing the standard snow fretting thing when you’re travelling a long distance for a snow trip.

Is your friend refusing to acknowledge photos like the ones posted above and in the Tahoe reports?

 

[Tony Crocker]

OpenSnow says Mammoth will get another 52-68 inches over this weekend and 2-3 feet more by Tuesday. Season total will get comfortably over 600 inches, closing in on the record 652.5 inches in 2010-11.

 

[Sbooker]

Is your friend refusing to acknowledge photos like the ones posted above and in the Tahoe reports?

Relatively inexperienced skiers that have no exposure to snowfall sometimes don't understand that all the snow won't melt over the course of a couple of weeks.........
The concept that snow is very well naturally insulated took some time for me to come to grips with too.

 

[EMSC]

Insane how deep the snow is to swallow Chair 1 at Mammoth.
Todays favorite Mammoth photo.

 

[tseeb]

The shortest route (US-395) from South Lake Tahoe to Mammoth is currently more than double usual 140 miles/2 1/2 hrs due to avalanche N of Lee Vining in late February that will not be cleared for at least a couple of more weeks. See https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/avalanche-closes-california-highway-395-17847328.php for details.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Insane how deep the snow is to swallow Chair 1 at Mammoth.
Todays favorite Mammoth photo.

That's the pic in my most recent mid-month snow report on the FTO home page.

Overall North America is at 123% of normal, which would be 2nd to 2010-11 if it sustains that pace. California is at 198% and Utah at 17%. Lots of Utah Records should fall as the prior highest season was only 136%. California is less clear because the prior high was 171% and April snowfall tends to decline more sharply in April than in Utah.

 

[EMSC]

Not too many days per year when avi danger get high or extreme in lots of Colo... But right now is one of those times, in part due to the big warm up mid last week followed by heavy snow on top...

March 22, 2023 Avi danger

 

[ChrisC]

Not too many days per year when avi danger get high or extreme in lots of Colo... But right now is one of those times, in part due to the big warm up mid last week followed by heavy snow on top...

March 22, 2023 Avi danger
View attachment 34964

I thought that triangle was permanent over SW San Juans...till maybe March.

 

[tseeb]

"this season has now etched its way into the history books as the second snowiest in the 77 years of record-keeping at the Central Sierra Snow Lab — more than 56.4 feet with no end in sight.
https://www.tahoedailytribune.com/news/no-telling-how-much-more-snow-coming-for-sierra-nevada/
And there’s still a chance it could surpass the record of 67.7 feet set in 1951-52 when more than 200 passengers on a San Francisco-bound luxury train from Chicago were stranded for three days near Donner Pass west of Truckee."

Also includes list of top 10 snowiest winters:

"TOP 10 HISTORIC SIERRA SNOW SEASONS

1951-52 — 812 inches or 67.7 feet

2022-23 — 677 inches or 56.4 feet

1982-83 — 671 inches or 55.9 feet

2010-11 — 643 inches or 53.6 feet

1981-82 — 624 inches or 52 feet

1968-69 — 602 inches or 50.2 feet

1994-95 — 598 inches or 49.8 feet

1955-56 — 594 inches or 49.5 feet

1957-58 — 593 inches or 49.4 feet

2016-17 — 573 inches or 47.7 feet

Source: UC-Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab; Soda Springs; founded 1946. The snow season coincides with the water season that begins on Oct. 1 and runs through the following Sept. 30."

 

[EMSC]

I thought that triangle was permanent over SW San Juans...till maybe March.

Not really. Colorado, including the San Juans, spends a huge % of the season at Considerable (stage 3), but not a lot of time at High 4 or Extreme 5.


tseeb, for the Sierras I note two unusual items in this years current 2nd place (though non-'official' old RR records indicate multiple years of snowfall similar to or potentially more than the 1951-52 record year). One is that many storms have been colder than typical(note 1), so much more snowfall at lake level in Tahoe/Mammoth town to be dealt with for example. Also, that it has been mostly very consistent - eg every month is a huge snow month, not a ton of long gaps between storms which a bit unusual for the Sierra, IMO.

Finally, If I recall, some of the big snows in official record years had much of it in late March-early May... Which means that earlier in the season snowfalls were already melting prior and the big new late season snowfalls also melted out (at least partially) much quicker leaving much less human impact on roads, structures, shoveling, etc... than this year has provided.

Note 1: I find it hilarious when various YouTube video creators dealing with the snow in the Sierra start off by talking about how "cold it is this morning" then reference temps that are only in the mid-teens. Such a banana belt of skiing, lol.